06-16-2021, 08:04 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2021, 01:05 PM by Dustinw5220.
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(06-16-2021, 07:02 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(06-16-2021, 03:16 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:(06-16-2021, 03:01 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(06-16-2021, 01:51 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:(06-15-2021, 02:15 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: "Millennials and Pew's Z are just two waves of civics." Exactly. Gen Z arrived in circa 2003-04. Generation Alpha will start arriving soon, about 2025.
If the 4T drags on until 2030, the Alpha Generation will have arrived right on time.
The schedule is right on time. IMO no adjustment to your generation set is necessary. The saeculum is in control.
I agree with just about all of this, 2025 seems like the perfect time for the new Prophets/Idealists (or more specifically, Generation Alpha) to arrive, especially if the parallels to the Civil War are accurate. I know you sometimes criticized S&H's tendency to always start a new generation RIGHT on the cusp of a new year, frankly I also always found that somewhat suspect myself (but otherwise, I mostly agree with their dates). When would you say the new Artists/Adaptives (or the oldest members of Gen Z) officially arrived, 2003 or 2004 (and, yeah I know the date S&H gave was 2005)? Would you say 2003-2025 would be the most accurate birth years for the new Artists/Adaptives?
Also (based on the years you gave for the turnings in the next saeculum), when will the new Nomads/Reactives, Heroes/Civics, and Artists/Civics arrive (not Gen Z, but the ones after that), and if the (current) new Artists/Adaptives are Gen Z and the new Prophets/Idealists are Generation Alpha, what might those generations be called?
Those are good questions, to be answered by future generations. Myself I would say 2003 is the start date for Gen Z, but I think Mr. Howe says 2004. The next generations after Alpha, which will be starting in 2025, should follow the pattern of starting about 3-5 years before the next turning. In my 1997 book I postulated that after Gen X, generations would be called by their letters, so if that holds, as it has so far at least partially, then if the next Awakening starts in 2047, then the next nomad Generation, Gen Beta or Gen B, should start around 2044. Since dominant generations start within a year or two of when Neptune enters a cardinal sign, then the next civic generation, Generation C for civic, should start around 2065, when Neptune enters Cancer (that's another C too). The next 3T will probably start closely after that and last until about 2090.
C for Civic, I like that!
How would you say (based on the double rhythm you described/predicted for the cycles of history) Gen Z, Gen Alpha, Gen Beta, and Gen C might be both different and similar compared to the Silent, Boomers, Gen X, and Millennials respectively in the next saeculum (based on what you already predicted, I'm guessing the next Heroes/Civics won't be nearly as tech obsessed as us Millennials, LOL)?
So if the Awakening starts in 2046 instead of 2047 (like you've been saying in the past), then the new Nomads arrive in 2043 instead of 2044, correct (that would make sense, S&H started Gen X in 1961, three years before the start of the Consciousness Revolution)? Also, if the 3T starts in 2066, would the new Heroes/Civics arrive in 2064 instead of 2065 (S&H gave the start date of 1982 for Millennials)?
There is no precise schedule for when generations and turnings start, according to S&H. It depends on events. Of course, sometimes we can look to the planetary cycles for clues about when events will occur. Not always by any means. But the fact that Uranus will oppose Pluto in about the same time during the saeculum as the previous Uranus conjunct Pluto happened, and since this planetary figure and cycle has to do with unexpected, revolutionary and awakening events, then we know the Awakening will start around 2046 or 2047. Awakening events might indeed start to unfold earlier, but these will be like the events of 1962 and 1963. Like during the now-about-to-end saeculum, this Uranus-Pluto planetary figure could again indicate events that would cut the first turning short, and accelerate the Awakening's arrival. But it can't cut it too short. There will need to be at least 18 years for a turning. So for that reason I now think the date 2047 will be the most-likely one.
But it depends on how soon the 4T ends. Things still look pretty unsettled in 2029-2030 according to the planets, and Mr. Howe is predicting this as well. But perhaps we will decide that the 4T is over in 2028 anyway, or even 2027, since events will be rapidly moving toward a new consensus by then. If so, then a 2046 start date is quite likely for the next 2T, and a 2043 start date for the next nomads is possible too. Sometimes things are still quite unsettled and unstable during the first few years of a first turning.
The double rhythm theory, if it holds, indicates that the next series of generations in the cycle will be more "Apollonian" than "Dionysian" according to some observers. So they will be less romantic and more rational. Crisis and awakening events could be directed more outwardly toward institutional change and foreign affairs. However, this should not be pressed too far. There is always much in common between generations and turnings of the same archetype. It is much more the case that trends jump from one turning to the next turning of the same type. The repeat of the Uranus-Pluto figure accents this probability, in our case. Since the opposition is the full moon of a cycle, the next Awakening will fulfill the ideals and cultural directions of the previous one, and bring them to fuller, more-conscious, and more-constructive and lasting expression.
By the way, experience shows that planetary aspects between the outer planets, although distant, are much more indicative of major events and generations than the closer, faster-moving ones, just because they move slowly and are not over and gone so quickly.
As much as I would HATE if the 4T lasted even a year longer than we thought, I can't say I would be surprised either (especially considering how slowly progress is currently going because of the Republicans).
It would make sense for the generations (and the archetypes applying them) to be more rational in the next saeculum, especially considering how much will still be at stake (such as climate change), how might that affect the culture (and make it either better or worse)? There will still be some passion and romance in the next saeculum though, right?
Also, do you think the double rhythm will still continue to hold even after the next saeculum? Would that mean if the next series of generations in the cycle will be more "Apollonian", the ones in the saeculum after next will be more "Dionysian" again?