Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Jun-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads
  
• The 2021 coup vs the violent 2007 and 1988 demonstrations
  
• The rise of the Ethnic Armed Groups (EAGs)
  
• The war in Myanmar vs the war in Syria
  
• China's strategic interest in Myanmar / Burma
  
• Russia's strategic interest in the Myanmar/Burma war
  
• Thailand supports the coup and the slaughter
  
• Karmic justice continues
  

****
**** Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads
****


Map of Myanmar / Burma, showing verious ethnic groups and militias (EAGs) (Economist)

A significant new escalation in the civil war in Myanmar / Burma
occurred on Tuesday as the junta regime's armed forces clashed with
the Mandalay People’s Defence Force (Mandalay PDF), a newly formed
anti-junta militia in Mandalay, Myanmar's second largest city.

Since the February 1 army coup that installed the junta dictatorship,
junta forces have been clashing with militias for months in rural
areas. What's different this time is that the new militia is that the
clash is occurring in a large urban center, Mandalay. As the civil
war progresses, this could lead to large-scale carnage among the huge,
dense population of Mandalay. According to the junta, troops killed
four people and arrested eight others.

The United Nations is warning that unless something is done, Myanmar
will accelerate to a civil war of "unprecedented scale."
Well, of course, there are many civil wars of "unprecedented scale"
all the time, including Burma's last generational crisis civil
war (1948-58), so let's ignore the UN hyperbole.

Nothing will be done because the United Nations has become
completely toothless. Any resolution in the Security Council
is a joke, vetoed by Russia and China. There was a
non-binding resolution passed last week by the UN General Assembly.
It had been debated for three months and was supposed to call
for an arms embargo, but it only passed after the arms embargo
stuff was deleted, so the resolution says exactly nothing.

The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on Myanmar's gemstone
industry, which funds the army's violent actions, as well as a number
of individuals in the junta's government. These sanctions will do no
good, but it's interesting to mention them because it shows, once
again, that the US is policeman of the world, and can actually take
action while the UN can only pass toothless resolutions.

****
**** The 2021 coup vs the violent 2007 and 1988 demonstrations
****

As I've described starting with the massive demonstrations in 2007 by
the "'88 Generation," Burma's last two generational crisis wars
(1886-91 and 1948-58) were extremely bloody and violent civil wars
involving multiple ethnic groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter"
)

As expected, the demonstrations in 2007 fizzled out, because
Myanmar/Burma was a generational Unraveling era, when the last
aging survivors of the preceding crisis war exert all their
political power to prevent a new crisis war.

But starting in 2016, 58 years after the end of the last crisis war,
the survivors were almost all gone (dead or retired), and the people
in power were in younger generations, with no sense of history.

Starting in 2011, Buddhists began attacking Muslim Rohingyas in
villages across Burma, particularly the 1.1 million ethnic Rohingyas
in Rakhine State. Mobs of Buddhists attacked Muslims, conducting
atrocities including torture and rape, killing hundreds and forcing
hundreds of thousands to leave their homes to flee from the attacks.
In some cases, the Buddhists burned down entire Rohingya villages to
the ground.

However, the worst violence began after a terrorist attack on Ausgust
25, 2017. The Tatmadaw (the army) responded with a sweep of violence
against Rohingyas, causing thousands of them to flee their villages
and head for the Bangladesh border, where they hoped to cross and
reach a refugee camp. The Burmese army shot them as they were
fleeing, including women and children, killing dozens. This was the
beginning of mass genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas.
There are now a million Rohingyas who were forced to flee across the
border into Bangladesh, where they're living in filthy refugee camps.

However, that wasn't the end of the Tatmadaw's program of mass
torture, rape and slaughter. After the coup of February 1 of this
year, that same army turned on its own people. The Tatmadaw has been
conducting torture, rape and slaughter of the ordinary Burmans, the
Burmese people. And this time it isn't fizzling the way it did in
2007. Isn't it amazing, Dear Reader, what crazy things people do
during a generational Crisis era?

****
**** The rise of the Ethnic Armed Groups (EAGs)
****

So as Generational Dynamics has been predicting, the army and the
people of Myanmar/Burma are refighting their last generational crisis
war, which was a massive bloody war among ethnic groups (1948-58),
with intervention by the Chinese.

But now there's a new acronym appearing in news reports: EAG, which
stands for "Ethnic Armed Group." The EAGs are militias formed by
different anti-junta ethnic groups in Myanmar. There are 135 ethnic
groups in Myanmar, so there is the possibility of 135 different EAGs.
The population of Myanmar numbers somewhere between 51 and 55 million
people. Of this, around 68% are considered part of the dominant ethnic
group - the Bamar (also known as the Burmans).

Here are some of the most significant EAGs:

• The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is a separatist group in
  Kachin State in northern Myanmar, along the border with China. The
  Tatmadaw is attacking the KIA with bombing raids and ground
  forces.
  
  
• The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) is a separatist group in
  Karen State (Kayin State, Kayah State) in southern Myanmar, along the
  border with Thailand. Bombing by the Tatmadaw has driven many Karenni
  across the border into Thailand, where they are not being welcomed by
  the Thai junta leader.
  
  
• The Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF), a merger of
  established insurgent groups and new militias from Kayah state,
  ambushed 150 soldiers on May 31.
  
  
• The United Wa State Army (UWSA) is backed by China and has been
  silent on the coup, though it has traditionally distributed arms
  to other EAGs.
  
  
• The Three Brotherhood Alliance – made up of the Ta’ang National
  Liberation Army (TNLA), Rakhine Arakan Army (AA) and Kokang Myanmar
  National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) – appear to be using the
  prospect of supporting the protestors to leverage concessions from the
  Tatmadaw.

****
**** The war in Myanmar vs the war in Syria
****

Many people are comparing the civil war in Myanmar against the
civil war in Syria.

Here's a comparison by the analysts at Lowy in Australia:

<QUOTE>"Like their fellow Syrian protestors, civilians in
Myanmar are forming their own militias. Myanmar already had a
patchwork of ethnic militias, some of which have stepped up
attacks on the military, known as the Tatmadaw, ostensibly in
support of the protestors. Geopolitically, the fault lines mirror
the Syrian conflict, with Russia and China blocking Western-led
efforts to censure the Tatmadaw at the United Nations.

Nonetheless, there are substantial differences between 2021
Myanmar and 2011–12 Syria.

Three key elements helped create the Syrian conflagration: a mass
armed uprising, extensive foreign intervention on both sides and
an influx of foreign fighters. None of those elements currently
exist in Myanmar, and it is unclear whether they ever will –
particularly the second and third."<END QUOTE>

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this analysis
is nonsense, and it's instructive to understand why.

Syria's last generational crisis war climaxed in February 1982 with
the destruction of the town of Hama, by Hafez al-Assad. His son,
Bashar al-Assad, launched an attack on peaceful protesters in 2011,
during a generational Awakening/Unraveling era. During such an era,
the traumatized survivors of the previous crisis war do what they can
to prevent a new war. Bashar al-Assad's army suffered from poor
morale and heavy desertions, and in 2015, al-Assad announced that he
was going to lose the war. At that point, Russia intervened. That's
why there was "extensive foreign intervention on both sides and an
influx of foreign fighters." This was the result of an unpopular
war during an Awakening/Unraveling era.

So when comparing the Syria war to the Myanmar war, the reason for
Russian (and Iranian) intervention in the Syrian war was that al-Assad
was going to be defeated. It is typical for an Awakening/Unraveling
war to fizzle, just like the Myanmar rebellions in 2007 and 1988.

Myanmar has been in a generational Crisis era since 2016. There
is no chance that this war will fizzle like the Syria war.
It's possible that the Chinese will intervene, but that's because
of the fighting along China's border.

****
**** China's strategic interest in Myanmar / Burma
****


Globe showing China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (Switzerland's Federal Intelligence Service)

China has for years been supplying weapons to the Tatmadaw, but has
been reluctant to fully endorse the February 1 coup, because the
Chinese Communists fear that the people of Myanmar will turn against
the Chinese.

Myanmar is an essential element of the Chinese Communists' delusional
grand plan to lead and control the world within five years. According
to this plan, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will bring peace
and harmony to the entire world, and all countries will resolve their
mutual differences and accede to China's leadership. The only thing
that can go wrong, according to this delusiona plan, is that the US
will be jealous, and will go to war with China to stop it.

The major BRI project in Myanmar is the China-Myanmar Economic
Corridor (CMEC), which is strategically essential to China's grand
plan, since it provides a corridor for the transport of people and
goods between China's Yunnan province and the Indian Ocean, through
Myanmar's ports. This is similar to the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC), which connects China's Xinjiang province to
Pakistan's Gwardar port, which China now controls.

Both CMEC and CPEC are essential to China's delusional grand plan,
since they have to counter the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, formed
by the US, along with Australia, India and Japan, with the obvious
goal of countering China.

So the Myanmar civil war is more than just an inconvenience to the
Chinese Communists. It's a threat to their whole delusional plan for
world domination. What the Chinese really want is for the war to just
end and go away, but in a generational Crisis era, that's very
unlikely. It's much more likely that it will re-fight the previous
crisis war, the extremely bloody 1948-58 civil war that involved all
of Burma's ethnic groups, and forced the Chinese to intervene to
protect their border.

****
**** Russia's strategic interest in the Myanmar/Burma war
****


Myanmar's arms suppliers -- China, Russia, India, S. Korea, Belarus, etc. (Nikkei)

China and Russia have historically been the biggest weapons suppliers
to the Tatmadaw, but they have different objectives.

Neither the Russians nor the Chinese care at all how many Myanmar
civilians are tortured, raped, beaten or slaughtered. The Russians
and the Chinese don't even care how many of their own people are
tortured, raped, beaten or slaughtered, let alone the Myanmar people.

So the Russians are perfectly happy to fully support the coup, and
continue to supply weapons to the Tatmadaw. Russia does not share
a border with Myanmar, and so any genocide or mass slaughter is
miles away, and easily ignored.

But as we said, the civil war is a problem for the Chinese. The war
could spill over across the border into China, and the people of
Myanmar could turn against China, at a time when their support is
needed for the CMEC and China's grand delusional plan to run the
world. Thus, it is critical for China that the Myanmar people not
blame the Chinese for the ongoing violence. There have already been
attacks on Chinese factories by groups claiming that the Chinese are
supporting the army violence. So the Chinese will continue supplying
weapons, but will keep as low a profile as possible.

For the Tatmadaw, the situation is ideal. They can play the Russians
and Chinese off against each other, and get all the weapons they want
for their fun program of torture, rape, beatings and slaughter.

In fact, there are eight countries that have openly expressed support
for the coup and the violence: Russia, China, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand.

****
**** Thailand supports the coup and the slaughter
****


Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, Myanmar's leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing. (Reuters)

Just as China has a potential problem along the border with
Myanmar, Thailand has an actual problem.

More than 20,000 villagers, mostly women and children, in Karen State
(Kayin State, Kayah State) have been forced to flee from their homes
into the jungle to escape the relentless airstrikes and artillery fire
by the Tatmadaw. The targets are supposed to be military targets of
the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), but as always happens with
genocidal armies, the Tatmadaw are most targeting civilians, in order
to "send a message."

As food is scarce in the jungle, with stories emerging of mothers
having to feed their children with insects, many villagers have fled
across the border into Thailand. Thailand has set up military
checkpoints along the border, and is pushing villagers back across the
border into Myanmar.

Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha fully supports the coup
and the violence by Myanmar's coup leader, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing. That
is because Prayuth conducted his own coup in 2014, overthrowing the
democratically elected government of Thailand, and Hlaing was the
first foreign leader to congratulate him. (See "23-May-14 World View -- Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites"
)

But there hasn't been similar violence in Thailand as is occurring in
Myanmar. According to reports, Hlaing has been asking for advice from
Prayuth in back-channel discussions, but so far they haven't worked.

Once again, the explanation is the difference in generational era.
Thailand's last generational crisis war was the extremely violent
"Killing Fields war" in the 1970s next door in Cambodia, so Thailand
is in an Awakening/Unraveling era, while Myanmar is in a generational
Crisis era. So Prayuth might be able to provide some interesting
details, but nothing he says will help quell the Crisis era fury of
the anti-junta rebels in Thailand.

****
**** Karmic justice continues
****

As I've written before, the situation in Myanmar/Burma reeks of
Karmic justice.

Since 2011, Burma's army has been committing atrocities on Muslim
ethnic Rohingyas living in Rakhine State, including gang rape, violent
torture, execution-style killings and the razing of entire villages,
in a scorched earth campaign. These atrocities have been cheered by
the ordinary Myanmar people, led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu, most
of whom apparently hate the Rohingyas.

Aung Sang Suu Kyi became a "useful idiot" for the army by presenting a
sympathetic, tired, weary, female face to the world, defending the
army to deflect the horrors and atrocities that are occurring in their
country. In 2019, the International Court of Justice in the Hague
held a trial on Burma's genocide, and Aung Sang Suu Kyi came and
defended the army, saying that nothing had happened.

So now the same atrocities that the Buddhist monks cheered when used
against the Muslim Rohingyas are being used against the Buddhists, and
the "useful idiot" Aung Sang Suu Kyi is in jail, where she'll probably
be killed when it's convenient for the Tatmadaw. That's full Karmic
justice.

In the meantime, it's not just the people of Myanmar who are going to
suffer. This is a highly explosive situation, and it's very likely to
spread to other countries in the region, including China, Thailand and
India. In the Generational Dynamics forum, we keep discussing various
scenarios that could lead eventually into a world war, and this is one
possibility.

Sources:

• Mandalay People’s Defence Force / Mandalay PDF ‘declares war’ on junta (Myanmar Now, 22-Jun-2021)
  
• Myanmar anti-junta militia vow to take on army in a major city (Reuters, 22-Jun-2021)
  
• Myanmar: 4 dead in Mandalay as junta clashes with militia (Deutsche Welle, 22-Jun-2021)
  
• Life in Hiding: Myanmar’s Civil Disobedience Movement (Diplomat, 22-Jun-2021)
  
• Myanmar: Timely support and action by Security Council ‘really paramount’, says UN Special Envoy (UN.org, 18-Jun-2021)
  
• UN special envoy decries violence in Myanmar as 900 civilians already killed (Asian News International, New Delhi, 19-Jun-2021)
  
• Rise of armed civilian groups in Myanmar fuels fears of full-scale civil war (Guardian, London, 31-May-2021)
  
• Myanmar accelerates toward a civil war of ‘unprecedented scale’ (LA Times, 9-Apr-2021)
  
• Myanmar sinks deeper into civil war, as anti-army groups multiply (Economist, 20-Jun-2021)
  
• UN envoy warns 'mass deaths from starvation, disease and exposure' possible in Myanmar's Kayah State (Australian Broadcasting, Reuters, 20-Jun-2021)
  
• United Nations condemns Myanmar coup and calls for halt of weapon supplies to junta (Australian Broadcasting, 19-Jun-2021)
  
• EAGs / Ethnic armed groups / Myanmar is not the next Syria (Lowy Institute, Australia, 26-May-2021)
  
• Myanmar, terrorism and the demands of international politics (Lowy Institute, Australia, 15-Jun-2021)
  
• Myanmar pushes ASEAN to the brink (Lowy Institute, Australia, 10-Jun-2021)
  
• China Faces World's Longest Civil War in Neighboring Myanmar, A Crisis It Can't Avoid (Newsweek, 1-Jun-2021)
  
• UN stops short of calling for global arms embargo against Myanmar (Al-Jazeera, 19-Jun-2021)
  
• Myanmar coup displaces thousands as global refugee numbers rise (Al-Jazeera, 18-Jun-2021)
  
• Thai PM and Myanmar junta chief stay engaged via back channels (Nikkei, 12-May-2021)
  
• Myanmar junta taps Russian air power to bomb ethnic rebels (Nikkei, 15-Apr-2021)
  
• Thailand / Govt defends decision not to back UN Myanmar motion (Bangkok Post, 21-Jun-2021)
  
• UN Resolution - The situation in Myanmar (UNDocs.org, 14-Jun-2021)
  
• Myanmar journalists who fled to Thailand fined, face deportation: lawyer (AFP, 21-Jun-2021)
  
• Thailand / Myanmar / Karen / Humanitarian catastrophe on the Salween River (Bangkok Post, 19-Jun-2021)
  
• Thailand / Myanmar border crossers sneak across river during heavy rain (Bangkok Post, 18-Jun-2021)
  
• Karen / US Embassy in Thailand issues security alert due to violence near Myanmar border (Thaiger, 17-Jun-2021)
  
• Kayah / IDPs return to Karenni towns to find unidentified bodies in streets, schools (Myanmar Now, 19-Jun-2021)
  
• Ethnic Groups of Myanmar: An Ethnological Guide To Burmese Tribes (Rain Forest Cruises, 14-May-2020)

Related Articles:

• Myanmar ethnic groups in Shan State launch coordinated attack on Burmese military (11-Apr-2021)
  
  
• Myanmar/Burma protests turn into ethnic civil war (29-Mar-2021)
  
  
• Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites (23-May-2014)
  
  
• America and the standard Genocide Playbook (12-Jan-2021)
  
  
• Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  
  
• Generational history of Burma (Myanmar) (26-Sep-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Mandalay, Tatmadaw,
88 Generation, Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Bangladesh,
Ethnic Armed Groups, EAGs, Bamar, Burmans,
Kachin Independence Army, KIA, Kachin State, China,
Karen National Liberation Army, KNLA,
Karen State, Kayin State, Kayah State, Thailand,
Karenni Nationalities Defence Force, KNDF,
United Wa State Army, UWSA,
Three Brotherhood Alliance,
Ta’ang National Liberation Army TNLA,
Rakhine Arakan Army, AA,
Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA,
Syria, Hafaz al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, CMEC, Yunnan province,
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Xinjiang province,
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Australia, India, Japan,
Russia, Vietnam, Laos,
Prayuth Chan-ocha, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing,
Cambodia, Killing Fields War,
Ashin Wirathu, Karmic justice, Aung Sang Suu Kyi

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John J. Xenakis
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