07-06-2021, 09:22 PM
*** 7-Jul-21 World View -- Russia and Tajikistan protect border As Afghan forces collapse under Taliban offensive
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Tajikistan mobilizes 20,000 military reservists to Afghan border
****
![[Image: g210706b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g210706b.jpg)
Map of Afghanistan showing recent rapid advance of Taliban (Afghan-Analysts)
Multiple analysts on TV have been echoing the reports that, as
American and Nato troops withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban are
taking control of the country far more rapidly than expected.
The Taliban are now in control of a third of the country. Many in the
Afghan army, who are supposed to be fighting the Taliban without the
aid of Nato, are apparently fleeing without a fight.
More than 1,000 Afghan security personnel fled border with Tajikistan,
causing Tajikistan's president to call up 20,000 military reservists
to guard the border. This follows a general warning to Tajikistan
villagers who live along the border to be prepared "to take up arms."
(See "3-May-21 World View -- US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability"
)
In May, a provincial governor announced:
<QUOTE>"In coordination with the police and intelligence
departments, we've registered all hunters who live in the border
areas. They will have to take up arms to defend our country. In
fact, all of us will have to take up weapons if the situation
dictates."<END QUOTE>
As I wrote at the time, the withdrawal of American and Nato forces in
Afghanistan threatens to destabilize the entire Central Asian region
that includes Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
Many analysts are pointing these events out, and it's not lost on any
of them that after America and Nato have had forces in Afghanistan for
almost 20 years, all the work that was done is now about to be lost in
a period of a few months. In particular, there are already reports
that the freedoms of women and girls are already being curtailed in
newly-captured Taliban areas.
****
**** Russia prepares to help Tajikistan protect its border with Afghanistan
****
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are all members of Russia's
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia, which
operates one of its largest military bases abroad in Tajikistan
equipped with tanks, helicopters, drones and ground attack aircraft,
and is promising to stabilize the border with Afghanistan if needed.
In the 1980s, Russia had an ill-fated invasion of Afghanistan
(Russia's "Vietnam") fighting Islamic Pashtuns who later became the
Taliban. Tajikistan and other Soviet Socialist republics, who were
part of the Soviet Union in the 1980s, supported Russia's invasion.
At that time, Osama bin Laden was a Sunni Muslim Saudi citizen whom
the Saudis got rid of by encouraging him to travel Afghanistan to
fight against the Orthodox Christian Russian infidels. Since the
Soviet Union was the West's major enemy at the time, America and other
Western countries supported bin Laden and his fight with the Soviets.
After the Soviets withdrew in 1989, the situation rapidly evolved.
There was an extremely bloody Afghan civil war between 1992-96,
pitting radicalized Pashtuns in the south against the Northern
Alliance in the north, consisting of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks.
As I've written many times, this civil war, a generational Crisis war,
is the controlling event today. Each side is bitterly angry at the
atrocities, beatings, tortures and rapes perpetrated by the other
side, and all many people want is revenge. That's always the nature
of an ethnic civil war, and it's the reason why the Taliban will never
fulfill their promises to give up violence. And that's why the
remnants of the old Northern Alliance are now fleeing across the
border into Tajikistan.
As I wrote at the time, the agreement between Donald Trump and the
Taliban in March 2020 was entirely delusional, but was apparently
driven by a desire to withdraw troops from Afghanistan no matter what
the cost and no matter how humiliating to the US. Joe Biden fully
endorsed the delusional agreement, and we're now seeing the results,
predictable and predicted. And yes, 20 years of work is now going
down the drain. ( "16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan"
)
So Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko says:
<QUOTE>"The situation there is rather tense because according
to some sources, up to 70% of the Tajik-Afghan border is now
controlled by the Taliban."<END QUOTE>
So the Northern Alliance may be reincarnated under Russian leadership.
Things are changing rapidly in Afghanistan, as the last American and
Nato troops prepare to leave, and many analysts are foreseeing a
catastrophe.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan,
China, Russia, Soviet Union,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO,
Afghanistan, Taliban, Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks,
Uzbeks, Northern Alliance, Saudi Arabia, Osama bin Laden,
Andrei Rudenko
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Tajikistan mobilizes 20,000 military reservists to Afghan border
- Russia prepares to help Tajikistan protect its border with Afghanistan
****
**** Tajikistan mobilizes 20,000 military reservists to Afghan border
****
Map of Afghanistan showing recent rapid advance of Taliban (Afghan-Analysts)
Multiple analysts on TV have been echoing the reports that, as
American and Nato troops withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban are
taking control of the country far more rapidly than expected.
The Taliban are now in control of a third of the country. Many in the
Afghan army, who are supposed to be fighting the Taliban without the
aid of Nato, are apparently fleeing without a fight.
More than 1,000 Afghan security personnel fled border with Tajikistan,
causing Tajikistan's president to call up 20,000 military reservists
to guard the border. This follows a general warning to Tajikistan
villagers who live along the border to be prepared "to take up arms."
(See "3-May-21 World View -- US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability"
)
In May, a provincial governor announced:
<QUOTE>"In coordination with the police and intelligence
departments, we've registered all hunters who live in the border
areas. They will have to take up arms to defend our country. In
fact, all of us will have to take up weapons if the situation
dictates."<END QUOTE>
As I wrote at the time, the withdrawal of American and Nato forces in
Afghanistan threatens to destabilize the entire Central Asian region
that includes Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
Many analysts are pointing these events out, and it's not lost on any
of them that after America and Nato have had forces in Afghanistan for
almost 20 years, all the work that was done is now about to be lost in
a period of a few months. In particular, there are already reports
that the freedoms of women and girls are already being curtailed in
newly-captured Taliban areas.
****
**** Russia prepares to help Tajikistan protect its border with Afghanistan
****
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are all members of Russia's
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia, which
operates one of its largest military bases abroad in Tajikistan
equipped with tanks, helicopters, drones and ground attack aircraft,
and is promising to stabilize the border with Afghanistan if needed.
In the 1980s, Russia had an ill-fated invasion of Afghanistan
(Russia's "Vietnam") fighting Islamic Pashtuns who later became the
Taliban. Tajikistan and other Soviet Socialist republics, who were
part of the Soviet Union in the 1980s, supported Russia's invasion.
At that time, Osama bin Laden was a Sunni Muslim Saudi citizen whom
the Saudis got rid of by encouraging him to travel Afghanistan to
fight against the Orthodox Christian Russian infidels. Since the
Soviet Union was the West's major enemy at the time, America and other
Western countries supported bin Laden and his fight with the Soviets.
After the Soviets withdrew in 1989, the situation rapidly evolved.
There was an extremely bloody Afghan civil war between 1992-96,
pitting radicalized Pashtuns in the south against the Northern
Alliance in the north, consisting of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks.
As I've written many times, this civil war, a generational Crisis war,
is the controlling event today. Each side is bitterly angry at the
atrocities, beatings, tortures and rapes perpetrated by the other
side, and all many people want is revenge. That's always the nature
of an ethnic civil war, and it's the reason why the Taliban will never
fulfill their promises to give up violence. And that's why the
remnants of the old Northern Alliance are now fleeing across the
border into Tajikistan.
As I wrote at the time, the agreement between Donald Trump and the
Taliban in March 2020 was entirely delusional, but was apparently
driven by a desire to withdraw troops from Afghanistan no matter what
the cost and no matter how humiliating to the US. Joe Biden fully
endorsed the delusional agreement, and we're now seeing the results,
predictable and predicted. And yes, 20 years of work is now going
down the drain. ( "16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan"
)
So Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko says:
<QUOTE>"The situation there is rather tense because according
to some sources, up to 70% of the Tajik-Afghan border is now
controlled by the Taliban."<END QUOTE>
So the Northern Alliance may be reincarnated under Russian leadership.
Things are changing rapidly in Afghanistan, as the last American and
Nato troops prepare to leave, and many analysts are foreseeing a
catastrophe.
Sources:
- Afghanistan: Soldiers flee to Tajikistan after Taliban clashes (BBC, 5-Jul-2021)
- Tajikistan Reinforces Border As Afghan Forces Collapse Under Taliban Offensive (RFE/RL, 5-Jul-2021)
- A Quarter of Afghanistan’s Districts Fall to the Taleban amid Calls for a ‘Second Resistance’ (Afghan-Analysts, 5-Jul-2021)
- Russia drills attack helicopters, pledges help to secure Tajik-Afghan border (Reuters, 6-Jul-2021)
- Tajikistan calls up reservists to bolster border as Afghan troops flee Taliban (Reuters, 6-Jul-2021)
- Tajikistan and Afghanistan (Understanding War, 2009)
- Re-connect with China to revive Afghanistan's economy (CGTN, Beijing, 4-Jul-2021)
- Disaster Looms in Afghanistan (WSJ, 25-Jun-2021)
- American experiment in Afghanistan proves a disaster (TehranTimes, 25-Jun-2021)
Related Articles:
- US withdrawal from Afghanistan threatens Central Asia stability (03-May-2021)
- High farce and tragedy continue in Afghanistan, as Biden announces Sept 11 troop withdrawal (15-Apr-2021)
- Why we can never prevail in Afghanistan (16-Dec-2019)
- China and Russia in military competition in Tajikistan (06-Dec-2016)
- Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan (02-Nov-2009)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan,
China, Russia, Soviet Union,
Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO,
Afghanistan, Taliban, Pashtuns, Hazaras, Tajiks,
Uzbeks, Northern Alliance, Saudi Arabia, Osama bin Laden,
Andrei Rudenko
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
