Alternating 4T pattern explained

[Eric the Green]

(08-19-2021, 02:19 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(08-19-2021, 10:58 AM)jleagans Wrote: Hmm, here's a theory I pieced together that sounds like where this thread was going (at the start):

My theory argues that turnings start at actual TURNING point events, seemingly alternating between DARK turnings that usher in the turnings with darker national attitudes (2T and 4T) and GOOD turnings that have more optimistic national attitudes (1T and 3T).  

4T=Dark=Stock Market Crash (1929)
1T=Good= End of WW2 (1945)
2T=Dark = JFK Assassination (1963
3T=Good= End of Stagflation (1982)
4T=Dark= 9/11 (2001)
1T=Good= Widespread Covid Vaccine Distribution (2021)

I still can't fully figure out the reconstruction/gilded age/progressive era turnings (ESPECIALLY the 1910's move to the 3T, so if anyone knows that era feel free to share )

This is far too simple of a classification.

This is how national moods work (please excuse the messy MSPaint drawing):



The reason you feel that 9/11 was such a dark turn is because every major event during a 1T or 3T intensifies the progression in mood. The moods do not change "smoothly," they move in jumps. 9/11 was a big jump.
For another example, WW1, another "third-turning crisis," was followed by an increase the cynicism and hedonism of that era to the extremely high level that the 1920s decade is famous for.
The most recent 1T seems to stand out for a notable lack of mood-intensifying events. I suppose Kennedy's election could count as one, sort of starting off the euphoric national mood of the 1960s decade (which peaked around 1967 to 1969 or so), but there really isn't much else. Perhaps 1Ts are a bit more gradual in general.

(it should also be noted that 4Ts are more complicated than this, but that's a topic for another thread)

I like the graph.

The way things worked out in our 2T was that the mood was probably brightest in the first year, 1964, and even that was tempered by the JFK assassination. But for those who were actually awakening, 1966-69 was certainly euphoric. But for others in those years the War in Vietnam or reaction by conservatives to the euphoric ones, and then worries over pollution from 1969 or earlier, and the general mood of protest, riots and more assassinations, darkened the mood a bit, as post-modern disillusion with progress began.

I don't know if the mood has brightened much during this 4T. Maybe a little as Biden's leadership is re-assuring after the Trump debacle. So, it seems in this saeculum that the 1T mood was brighter than in other saecula, because the USA was on top of the world, although cold war and nuclear fears were worrisome; but since then the mood has been a bit darker for longer than the graph indicates for the average archetypal saeculum. Perhaps with "Morning in America", initially the 3T saw an uptick in the national mood after the stagnant years of the late Awakening.