09-14-2016, 08:19 PM
*** 15-Sep-16 World View -- UK politicians debate the 2011 Libya intervention
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** UK politicians debate the 2011 Libya intervention
****
![[Image: g160914b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160914b.jpg)
UK Parliament buildings
A report produced the UK Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee
strongly condemns the 2011 intervention in Libya, mostly by
the UK and France, with US support.
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The consequence was political and economic collapse,
> inter-militia and inter-tribal (warfare), humanitarian and migrant
> crises, widespread human rights violations and the growth of [the
> so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)] in North
> Africa."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This report was written by politicians to criticize other politicians,
and on that basis alone there's no reason to believe that the report
is anything but a collection of politically charged accusations based
carefully selected "facts" from people who have no clue what's going
on the world.
As I wrote in March,
there was a
bloodbath going on in Libya in early 2011, with a massive refugee
crisis with hundreds of thousands of refugees pouring into neighboring
countries. Muammar Gaddafi declared war on the protesters, and the
Arab League requested a no-fly zone over Libya.
The ironically named "Arab Spring" began in early 2011, and resulted
in chaos in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. No
politicians could have either caused or prevented this chaos, or could
even have predicted that it would happen. It was caused by the rise
of a new generation of young Arabs throughout the Mideast.
Nonetheless, this report complains that David Cameron should have
predicted that militant extremist groups would attempt to benefit from
the rebellion, that a proper predictive analysis should have been
made, that the country was poorly understood, and that there was no
effective advance strategy to support and shape post-Gaddafi Libya.
In fact, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Chaos Theory
tells us that none of those things could be accurately predicted or
formulated. In fact, all of the countries mentioned above were
chaotic in different ways, and nobody that I'm aware of correctly
predicted what would happen in any of them. BBC and Guardian (London) and UK Parliament
Related Articles
****
**** Libya and Syria illustrate the intervention dilemma for policy makers
****
There is an obvious comparison to be made between the Libya
intervention and the Syria non-intervention. Both situations were
chaotic, both occurred as a result of the "Arab Spring," but
the West intervened in Libya, but not in Syria.
Let's take the paragraph quoted above on the outcome of
the Libya intervention, and rephrase to describe the outcome
of the Syria non-intervention:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The consequence was political and economic collapse
> (worse in Syria than in Libya), inter-militia and inter-tribal
> (warfare - in both countries), humanitarian and migrant crises
> (much worse in Syria, with millions of refugees flooding into
> neighboring countries and Europe), widespread human rights
> violations (Bashar al-Assad's massive genocidal attacks on Sunnis)
> and al-Assad's creation of ISIS, which spread to Iraq, Libya and
> other countries."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
My opinion is that the policy of non-intervention in Syria has been a
major geopolitical disaster, while the intervention in Libya has
mitigated a disaster already in progress.
At the very least, this comparison illustrates the complexity
for policy makers about when the intervene.
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, UK Parliament, France, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- UK politicians debate the 2011 Libya intervention
- Libya and Syria illustrate the intervention dilemma for policy makers
****
**** UK politicians debate the 2011 Libya intervention
****
UK Parliament buildings
A report produced the UK Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee
strongly condemns the 2011 intervention in Libya, mostly by
the UK and France, with US support.
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The consequence was political and economic collapse,
> inter-militia and inter-tribal (warfare), humanitarian and migrant
> crises, widespread human rights violations and the growth of [the
> so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)] in North
> Africa."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This report was written by politicians to criticize other politicians,
and on that basis alone there's no reason to believe that the report
is anything but a collection of politically charged accusations based
carefully selected "facts" from people who have no clue what's going
on the world.
As I wrote in March,
there was a
bloodbath going on in Libya in early 2011, with a massive refugee
crisis with hundreds of thousands of refugees pouring into neighboring
countries. Muammar Gaddafi declared war on the protesters, and the
Arab League requested a no-fly zone over Libya.
The ironically named "Arab Spring" began in early 2011, and resulted
in chaos in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. No
politicians could have either caused or prevented this chaos, or could
even have predicted that it would happen. It was caused by the rise
of a new generation of young Arabs throughout the Mideast.
Nonetheless, this report complains that David Cameron should have
predicted that militant extremist groups would attempt to benefit from
the rebellion, that a proper predictive analysis should have been
made, that the country was poorly understood, and that there was no
effective advance strategy to support and shape post-Gaddafi Libya.
In fact, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Chaos Theory
tells us that none of those things could be accurately predicted or
formulated. In fact, all of the countries mentioned above were
chaotic in different ways, and nobody that I'm aware of correctly
predicted what would happen in any of them. BBC and Guardian (London) and UK Parliament
Related Articles
- A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention (05-Mar-2016)
- Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government (21-Feb-2011)
- Libya's Muammar Gaddafi gives a psychopathic speech to his people (23-Feb-2011)
- Massive refugee crisis in Libya increases international calls for intervention (02-Mar-2011)
****
**** Libya and Syria illustrate the intervention dilemma for policy makers
****
There is an obvious comparison to be made between the Libya
intervention and the Syria non-intervention. Both situations were
chaotic, both occurred as a result of the "Arab Spring," but
the West intervened in Libya, but not in Syria.
Let's take the paragraph quoted above on the outcome of
the Libya intervention, and rephrase to describe the outcome
of the Syria non-intervention:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The consequence was political and economic collapse
> (worse in Syria than in Libya), inter-militia and inter-tribal
> (warfare - in both countries), humanitarian and migrant crises
> (much worse in Syria, with millions of refugees flooding into
> neighboring countries and Europe), widespread human rights
> violations (Bashar al-Assad's massive genocidal attacks on Sunnis)
> and al-Assad's creation of ISIS, which spread to Iraq, Libya and
> other countries."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
My opinion is that the policy of non-intervention in Syria has been a
major geopolitical disaster, while the intervention in Libya has
mitigated a disaster already in progress.
At the very least, this comparison illustrates the complexity
for policy makers about when the intervene.
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, UK Parliament, France, Libya, Muammar Gaddafi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
