09-15-2016, 09:54 PM
*** 16-Sep-16 World View -- Syria blocks humanitarian aid to Aleppo
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Syria blocks humanitarian aid to Aleppo
****
![[Image: g160915b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160915b.jpg)
Aleppo on Wednesday (CNN)
The "good news" today about the Syria ceasefire, based on reports by
correspondents on the scene interviewed on the BBC and RFI, is that
while there's no real ceasefire, the amount of violence has decreased,
and also that the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has
temporarily stopped bombing hospitals and schools.
The "bad news" is that nobody believes that the ceasefire will last
for long, and everybody on all sides expects it to collapse any day.
The ceasefire deal was reached between the US and Russia. None of the
belligerents in the war on any side has endorsed the deal.
The epicenter of the ceasefire's failure is Castello Road, the highway
into east Aleppo, where the people, including many women and children,
have been starving because of a siege by al-Assad's military forces.
A critical part of the ceasefire deal is that the UN has to be able to
deliver humanitarian aid to the people of east Aleppo.
The UN has 40 trucks full of food, medicine and other humanitarian aid
ready to go. But after four days, the trucks are stuck on the
Turkey-Syria border, unable to move because Castello Road is too
dangerous to travel, and because Syria has not given permission.
UN officials have been scathingly critical of Syria for not permitting
the humanitarian aid to be delivered. According to Jan Egeland,
chairman of the Syrian humanitarian task force:
> [indent]<QUOTE>We could go today. We're not. . . . The permits have
> not been given. We hope to go tomorrow, to eastern Aleppo.
>
> Not a single permit is in the hands of our people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Since 2011, there have been other attempts at humanitarian deliveries,
some of which have been approved by the Syrian regime. However, the
deliveries have all been held up Syrian troops roadblocks. At these
roadblocks, the Syrian troops would pick through the humanitarian aid
and remove much of it, leaving little for the intended recipients.
In this case, the United Nations is insisting that Syrian troops will
not be permitted to harass the truck convoys and confiscate the food.
United Nations Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura said the
Russia has agreed to allow humanitarian aid, but the Syrian regime is
blocking it:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Those facilitation letters, final permission for the
> U.N. to actually reach those areas (needing aid), have not been
> received. That's a fact. It is particularly regrettable because
> normally during these days we are losing time. These are days
> which we should have used for convoys to move with the permit to
> go because there is no fighting.
>
> The Russian federation is agreeing with us about this, so are the
> two co-chairs (U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian
> Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov). This is something that requires
> to take place immediately."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
My guess is that the only reason that al-Assad approved this
humanitarian delivery plan in the first place is because his army is
desperate and confiscating the UN aid would help the army.
Four days ago I gave a list of reasons why it would fail,
and all of those reasons are coming
true.
Al-Assad himself quickly rejected the ceasefire,
saying, "We as a nation ... are delivering a message
that the Syrian state is determined to recover all regions from the
terrorists and restore security, infrastructure, and everything else
that was destroyed in both human and material aspects."
Both al-Assad and his opposition see the battle of Aleppo as the
turning point of the war. Al-Assad's siege of Aleppo is starving the
people, and it's been well-publicized that he believes that if he can
force the opposition in Aleppo to surrender, then it will be a fatal
blow for the entire war. If he's unable to force the opposition in
Aleppo to surrender, it will be a sign that he's lost the war.
So I was surprised that al-Assad agreed to the Aleppo humanitarian
delivery at all, since it strikes at the heart of his principal
objective, and would end the siege. However, the new development that
al-Assad is blocking the humanitarian deliveries, or that if approved
they will be confiscated by his army, makes perfect sense.
The only thing that can change this dynamic is for Russia to find a
way to force al-Assad to comply. That seems unlikely, but we'll have
to wait and see. CNN and Washington Post and Reuters
Related Articles
****
**** Report: Turkey will build 'residential cities' in Syria buffer zone
****
It's now been almost a month since Turkey began the invasion of
northern Syria known as 'Operation Euphrates Shield'
. Turkey achieved a quick victory by driving the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) to leave Syria's
border city of Jarablus.
Since then, Turkey has been rebuilding Jarablus, providing water and
electricity for the hundreds of Syrian refugees returning to the
region. Electricity will be provided by a three-kilometer underground
power line from the Turkish city of Karkamis, and water will be
supplied by using power generators to divert water from the city's
wells into the water network. In one day earlier this week, around
1,700 Syrian refugees in Turkey have returned to Jarablus and the
surrounding area.
Ever since millions of Syrian refugees started pouring into Turkey,
Turkey has been lobbying to build a "buffer zone" in northern Syria,
to provide a place where Syrian refugees can go rather than cross the
border into Turkey. However, the international community has opposed
the idea, fearing that it would create additional conflict.
On Tuesday, Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Nurettin Canikli announced
that Turkey has started implementing a plan for a buffer zone in
northern Syria, and would start building "new residential cities" in
Syrian areas recently liberated from ISIS by “Operation Euphrates
Shield.” Turkey is currently hosting 2.7 million Syrian refugees, and
the objective is to place them in fully equipped residential areas
that Turkey was planning to build.
Turkish officials hope to get approval from the United Nations
Security Council to create the buffer zone, but it seems possible that
Turkey will go ahead with its plans with or without Security Council
approval.
Daily Sabah (8-Sep) and Asharq Al-Awsat (London)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad, Castello Road,
Jan Egeland, Staffan de Mistura, Russia, Operation Euphrates Shield,
Turkey, Jarablus, Karkamis, Nurettin Canikli, residential cities,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Syria blocks humanitarian aid to Aleppo
- Report: Turkey will build 'residential cities' in Syria buffer zone
****
**** Syria blocks humanitarian aid to Aleppo
****
Aleppo on Wednesday (CNN)
The "good news" today about the Syria ceasefire, based on reports by
correspondents on the scene interviewed on the BBC and RFI, is that
while there's no real ceasefire, the amount of violence has decreased,
and also that the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has
temporarily stopped bombing hospitals and schools.
The "bad news" is that nobody believes that the ceasefire will last
for long, and everybody on all sides expects it to collapse any day.
The ceasefire deal was reached between the US and Russia. None of the
belligerents in the war on any side has endorsed the deal.
The epicenter of the ceasefire's failure is Castello Road, the highway
into east Aleppo, where the people, including many women and children,
have been starving because of a siege by al-Assad's military forces.
A critical part of the ceasefire deal is that the UN has to be able to
deliver humanitarian aid to the people of east Aleppo.
The UN has 40 trucks full of food, medicine and other humanitarian aid
ready to go. But after four days, the trucks are stuck on the
Turkey-Syria border, unable to move because Castello Road is too
dangerous to travel, and because Syria has not given permission.
UN officials have been scathingly critical of Syria for not permitting
the humanitarian aid to be delivered. According to Jan Egeland,
chairman of the Syrian humanitarian task force:
> [indent]<QUOTE>We could go today. We're not. . . . The permits have
> not been given. We hope to go tomorrow, to eastern Aleppo.
>
> Not a single permit is in the hands of our people."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Since 2011, there have been other attempts at humanitarian deliveries,
some of which have been approved by the Syrian regime. However, the
deliveries have all been held up Syrian troops roadblocks. At these
roadblocks, the Syrian troops would pick through the humanitarian aid
and remove much of it, leaving little for the intended recipients.
In this case, the United Nations is insisting that Syrian troops will
not be permitted to harass the truck convoys and confiscate the food.
United Nations Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura said the
Russia has agreed to allow humanitarian aid, but the Syrian regime is
blocking it:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Those facilitation letters, final permission for the
> U.N. to actually reach those areas (needing aid), have not been
> received. That's a fact. It is particularly regrettable because
> normally during these days we are losing time. These are days
> which we should have used for convoys to move with the permit to
> go because there is no fighting.
>
> The Russian federation is agreeing with us about this, so are the
> two co-chairs (U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian
> Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov). This is something that requires
> to take place immediately."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
My guess is that the only reason that al-Assad approved this
humanitarian delivery plan in the first place is because his army is
desperate and confiscating the UN aid would help the army.
Four days ago I gave a list of reasons why it would fail,
and all of those reasons are coming
true.
Al-Assad himself quickly rejected the ceasefire,
saying, "We as a nation ... are delivering a message
that the Syrian state is determined to recover all regions from the
terrorists and restore security, infrastructure, and everything else
that was destroyed in both human and material aspects."
Both al-Assad and his opposition see the battle of Aleppo as the
turning point of the war. Al-Assad's siege of Aleppo is starving the
people, and it's been well-publicized that he believes that if he can
force the opposition in Aleppo to surrender, then it will be a fatal
blow for the entire war. If he's unable to force the opposition in
Aleppo to surrender, it will be a sign that he's lost the war.
So I was surprised that al-Assad agreed to the Aleppo humanitarian
delivery at all, since it strikes at the heart of his principal
objective, and would end the siege. However, the new development that
al-Assad is blocking the humanitarian deliveries, or that if approved
they will be confiscated by his army, makes perfect sense.
The only thing that can change this dynamic is for Russia to find a
way to force al-Assad to comply. That seems unlikely, but we'll have
to wait and see. CNN and Washington Post and Reuters
Related Articles
- Syria's civilians fear worse violence from US-Russia 'ceasefire' agreement (11-Sep-2016)
- As Syria ceasefire begins, Bashar al-Assad quickly rejects it (13-Sep-2016)
****
**** Report: Turkey will build 'residential cities' in Syria buffer zone
****
It's now been almost a month since Turkey began the invasion of
northern Syria known as 'Operation Euphrates Shield'
. Turkey achieved a quick victory by driving the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) to leave Syria's
border city of Jarablus.
Since then, Turkey has been rebuilding Jarablus, providing water and
electricity for the hundreds of Syrian refugees returning to the
region. Electricity will be provided by a three-kilometer underground
power line from the Turkish city of Karkamis, and water will be
supplied by using power generators to divert water from the city's
wells into the water network. In one day earlier this week, around
1,700 Syrian refugees in Turkey have returned to Jarablus and the
surrounding area.
Ever since millions of Syrian refugees started pouring into Turkey,
Turkey has been lobbying to build a "buffer zone" in northern Syria,
to provide a place where Syrian refugees can go rather than cross the
border into Turkey. However, the international community has opposed
the idea, fearing that it would create additional conflict.
On Tuesday, Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Nurettin Canikli announced
that Turkey has started implementing a plan for a buffer zone in
northern Syria, and would start building "new residential cities" in
Syrian areas recently liberated from ISIS by “Operation Euphrates
Shield.” Turkey is currently hosting 2.7 million Syrian refugees, and
the objective is to place them in fully equipped residential areas
that Turkey was planning to build.
Turkish officials hope to get approval from the United Nations
Security Council to create the buffer zone, but it seems possible that
Turkey will go ahead with its plans with or without Security Council
approval.
Daily Sabah (8-Sep) and Asharq Al-Awsat (London)
Related Articles
- Turkey plans assault on Syria's Kurds (10-Sep-2016)
- Turkey and Jordan separately plan invasions of Syria (30-Jun-2015)
- Kobani crisis causes Turkey to reverse policy on Syria (30-Sep-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad, Castello Road,
Jan Egeland, Staffan de Mistura, Russia, Operation Euphrates Shield,
Turkey, Jarablus, Karkamis, Nurettin Canikli, residential cities,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
