10-02-2016, 09:44 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-03-2016, 06:29 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 3-Oct-16 World View -- India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Relations between India and Pakistan continue to deteriorate
****
![[Image: g161002b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161002b.jpg)
Indus River Valley (Reuters)
It's becoming increasingly clear that something serious has changed in
relations between Pakistan and India, as a result of repeated acts of
violence in the Indian-controlled region of Kashmir. It's clear that
each country, in a generational Crisis era, is on a trend line to
become increasing nationalistic and belligerent towards the other, and
it's also clear that these trend lines will continue on the same path
until they result in war. From the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, it's not a question of "if", but of "when," and with the
rapid rise in nationalism on both sides, "when" may not be too far
off.
Although relations between the two country leaders, India's president
Nawaz Sharif and India's prime minister Narendra Modi, has never been
warm, at least there were attempts to appear cordial. As recently as
December of last year, Modi attended the wedding of Sharif's
granddaughter in Lahore.
Then on January 2 there was a terrorist attack on an Indian air force
base in Panthankot, Punjab. India investigated the terrorist attack
and blamed Pakistan. Pakistan investigated the attack and said that
India has staged the encounter to defame Pakistan. The India-Pakistan
"peace dialog" was suspended indefinitely.
Tensions have really soared since July 8, when Burhan Wani, the leader
of a separatist group in Kashmir was killed by Indian police fire.
Massive riots in Kashmir began the next day. Indian police responded
with rubber bullets, leaving many protesters wounded or killed or
blinded by the pellets. In a speech at the United Nations two weeks
ago, Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif incited further violence
in Kashmir by glorifying Burhan Wani and demanding independence for
Indian-controlled Kashmir. India has accused Pakistan of actively
supporting the riots.
As I've written several times in the past, it doesn't matter whether
Pakistan is actively supporting the riots because, from the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, the violence is "organic" or
"indigenous," meaning that it comes from the people rather than from
the politicians. India and Pakistan are returning to the massive
violence of their last two generational crisis wars, India's 1857
Rebellion against Britain and the 1947 Partition war between Hindus
and Muslims that following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent
into India and Pakistan.
On September 18, terrorists made a major attack on an Indian army base
in Uri in Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17
soldiers were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst
militant terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.
Last week, India invaded Pakistani soil in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir,
with what Indian officials
called a "surgical strike" on militants. This has infuriated the
Pakistani population, and some kind of retaliation is expected.
Pakistan Today and Outlook India and Indian Panorama
Related Articles
****
**** India boycotts regional SAARC meeting in order to isolate Pakistan
****
At this point, both the Pakistani and Indian people are furious, and
nationalist feelings are soaring on both sides. Because Indian
officials are becoming increasingly aware that any military action
might trigger a war between the two nuclear powers, Indian officials
are looking for ways to strike at what it calls "the terrorist state"
diplomatically.
Shortly after the terrorist attack on the Indian army base in Uri, but
before India's "surgical strike" in retaliation, Indian officials made
a decision to isolate Pakistan diplomatically.
Pakistan is scheduled on November 9-10 to host the 19th summit of
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in Pakistan's
capital city Islamabad.
Indian officials decided to boycott the SAARC. Furthermore, India
called the embassies of SAARC countries and demanded that they join
the boycott. All the SAARC countries -- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri
Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives, and Nepal -- except Pakistan joined the
boycott, forcing Pakistan to indefinitely postpone the meeting. The
statements issued by these nations indicated how shocked they were by
the Uri attack, and said that the time was "not conducive" to a summit
meeting.
SAARC was founded in 1985 for development and advancement of the
geopolitical region of South Asia, but has been largely ineffective,
possibly because this region of the world holds 1/5th of the world
population, but has 2/5th of the world’s poor, Indian Express and India.com and The Nation (Pakistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan)
****
**** Terrorists attack another Indian army base in Kashmir
****
As of this writing on Sunday evening ET, a gun battle is continuing in
the Kashmir Valley town of Baramulla where terrorists attacked an Army
camp. This was four days after India had carried out "surgical
strikes" against terrorist targets in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, and
two weeks after a major attack on an Indian army base in Uri in
Kashmir, killing at least 17 soldiers. Indian Express
****
**** India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights
****
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was signed by India and Pakistan in 1960,
and has been considered one of the most diplomatic achievements in
history, a model agreement for sharing water resources between two
countries. There are several rivers flowing through the vast Indus
River Basin, generally from India to Pakistan, and the agreement
controls how much water can be used by each country.
The IWT has survived three wars between Pakistan and India, but now
India's prime minister Narendra Modi is threatening to revoke the
treaty, and cut off some of the water flowing from India to Pakistan.
If India cut off the flow of water to Pakistan, it would be a disaster
for Pakistan. Ironically, it could also be a disaster for India,
because the blocked water would flood the Indus Valley.
According to a Pakistan official, any Indian step for disrupting water
flow would carry considerable risk of war and hostilities. "If India
tries to violate the treaty, there will be a befitting reaction from
Pakistan." The Hindu and The News (Pakistan) and India Times and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Foreign Policy
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Narendra Modi, Nawaz Sharif,
Kashmir, Burhan Wani, 1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition war,
Panthankot, Uri, Baramulla,
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, SAARC,
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal,
Indus Water Treaty, IWT, Indus River Valley
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Relations between India and Pakistan continue to deteriorate
- India boycotts regional SAARC meeting in order to isolate Pakistan
- Terrorists attack another Indian army base in Kashmir
- India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights
****
**** Relations between India and Pakistan continue to deteriorate
****
Indus River Valley (Reuters)
It's becoming increasingly clear that something serious has changed in
relations between Pakistan and India, as a result of repeated acts of
violence in the Indian-controlled region of Kashmir. It's clear that
each country, in a generational Crisis era, is on a trend line to
become increasing nationalistic and belligerent towards the other, and
it's also clear that these trend lines will continue on the same path
until they result in war. From the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, it's not a question of "if", but of "when," and with the
rapid rise in nationalism on both sides, "when" may not be too far
off.
Although relations between the two country leaders, India's president
Nawaz Sharif and India's prime minister Narendra Modi, has never been
warm, at least there were attempts to appear cordial. As recently as
December of last year, Modi attended the wedding of Sharif's
granddaughter in Lahore.
Then on January 2 there was a terrorist attack on an Indian air force
base in Panthankot, Punjab. India investigated the terrorist attack
and blamed Pakistan. Pakistan investigated the attack and said that
India has staged the encounter to defame Pakistan. The India-Pakistan
"peace dialog" was suspended indefinitely.
Tensions have really soared since July 8, when Burhan Wani, the leader
of a separatist group in Kashmir was killed by Indian police fire.
Massive riots in Kashmir began the next day. Indian police responded
with rubber bullets, leaving many protesters wounded or killed or
blinded by the pellets. In a speech at the United Nations two weeks
ago, Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif incited further violence
in Kashmir by glorifying Burhan Wani and demanding independence for
Indian-controlled Kashmir. India has accused Pakistan of actively
supporting the riots.
As I've written several times in the past, it doesn't matter whether
Pakistan is actively supporting the riots because, from the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, the violence is "organic" or
"indigenous," meaning that it comes from the people rather than from
the politicians. India and Pakistan are returning to the massive
violence of their last two generational crisis wars, India's 1857
Rebellion against Britain and the 1947 Partition war between Hindus
and Muslims that following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent
into India and Pakistan.
On September 18, terrorists made a major attack on an Indian army base
in Uri in Kashmir. There was a five-hour firefight, and at least 17
soldiers were killed, as were the militants. This was the worst
militant terrorist attack in Kashmir in years.
Last week, India invaded Pakistani soil in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir,
with what Indian officials
called a "surgical strike" on militants. This has infuriated the
Pakistani population, and some kind of retaliation is expected.
Pakistan Today and Outlook India and Indian Panorama
Related Articles
- New terrorist attack in Kashmir threatens India-Pakistan retaliation (19-Sep-2016)
- India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
- After 50 days of violence, unrest in India-controlled Kashmir is unabated (27-Aug-2016)
****
**** India boycotts regional SAARC meeting in order to isolate Pakistan
****
At this point, both the Pakistani and Indian people are furious, and
nationalist feelings are soaring on both sides. Because Indian
officials are becoming increasingly aware that any military action
might trigger a war between the two nuclear powers, Indian officials
are looking for ways to strike at what it calls "the terrorist state"
diplomatically.
Shortly after the terrorist attack on the Indian army base in Uri, but
before India's "surgical strike" in retaliation, Indian officials made
a decision to isolate Pakistan diplomatically.
Pakistan is scheduled on November 9-10 to host the 19th summit of
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in Pakistan's
capital city Islamabad.
Indian officials decided to boycott the SAARC. Furthermore, India
called the embassies of SAARC countries and demanded that they join
the boycott. All the SAARC countries -- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri
Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives, and Nepal -- except Pakistan joined the
boycott, forcing Pakistan to indefinitely postpone the meeting. The
statements issued by these nations indicated how shocked they were by
the Uri attack, and said that the time was "not conducive" to a summit
meeting.
SAARC was founded in 1985 for development and advancement of the
geopolitical region of South Asia, but has been largely ineffective,
possibly because this region of the world holds 1/5th of the world
population, but has 2/5th of the world’s poor, Indian Express and India.com and The Nation (Pakistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan)
****
**** Terrorists attack another Indian army base in Kashmir
****
As of this writing on Sunday evening ET, a gun battle is continuing in
the Kashmir Valley town of Baramulla where terrorists attacked an Army
camp. This was four days after India had carried out "surgical
strikes" against terrorist targets in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, and
two weeks after a major attack on an Indian army base in Uri in
Kashmir, killing at least 17 soldiers. Indian Express
****
**** India and Pakistan threaten war over Indus River water rights
****
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was signed by India and Pakistan in 1960,
and has been considered one of the most diplomatic achievements in
history, a model agreement for sharing water resources between two
countries. There are several rivers flowing through the vast Indus
River Basin, generally from India to Pakistan, and the agreement
controls how much water can be used by each country.
The IWT has survived three wars between Pakistan and India, but now
India's prime minister Narendra Modi is threatening to revoke the
treaty, and cut off some of the water flowing from India to Pakistan.
If India cut off the flow of water to Pakistan, it would be a disaster
for Pakistan. Ironically, it could also be a disaster for India,
because the blocked water would flood the Indus Valley.
According to a Pakistan official, any Indian step for disrupting water
flow would carry considerable risk of war and hostilities. "If India
tries to violate the treaty, there will be a befitting reaction from
Pakistan." The Hindu and The News (Pakistan) and India Times and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Foreign Policy
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Narendra Modi, Nawaz Sharif,
Kashmir, Burhan Wani, 1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition war,
Panthankot, Uri, Baramulla,
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, SAARC,
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal,
Indus Water Treaty, IWT, Indus River Valley
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
