05-24-2016, 09:28 PM
*** 25-May-16 World View -- Iran-India sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal to counter Pakistan-China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Iran and India sign 'historic' deal for Iran's Chabahar port
****
![[Image: g160524b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160524b.jpg)
Map displaying the trade routes related to the Chabahar and Gwadar ports (Defence.pk)
In a two-day visit to Iran's capital city Tehran, India's prime
minister Narendra Modi and Iran's president Hassan Rouhani signed a
dozen commercial, security and cultural agreements.
The most important was the "historic" Chabahar Port agreement.
Chabahar is on the coast of Iran near Pakistan. India has agreed to
invest $500 million to significantly increase the size of this port.
Using it, India will be able to bypass Pakistan in shipping goods to
Iran, and from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia or Europe.
(Chabahar is the large red star on the map above, and the red lines
are proposed travel routes from Mumbai to Chabahar, through Iran to
Central Asia and Europe.)
The proposal fo build up the Chabahar has been discussed since the
1990s, but agreements have been slow to come. Then the whole project
was put on hold because of international sanctions on Tehran. So this
deal comes just four months after international sanctions have been
lifted.
China has been investing heavily in the Pakistan's port at Gwadar,
shown by the large purple star in the map above. The purple lines
show China's trade routes to the Mideast:
A visitor from Mars might wonder why India doesn't just ship
commercial goods over land through Pakistan to the port of Gwadar or
to Iran. The answer is that in December of last year, Pakistan's
government said that it would not permit Indian goods to be
transported across Pakistan.
Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani was also in Tehran on Tuesday to
join in the announcement of the Chabahar Port agreement. The
agreement is significant for Afghanistan, because it will mean a great
deal of increased trade with its ally, India. Indian Express and Tehran Times and Dawn (Pakistan - 10-Dec-2015)
****
**** Chabahar port deal highlights enmity between Iran-India versus Pakistan-China
****
![[Image: g160524c.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160524c.jpg)
Narendra Modi, Hassan Rouhani and Ashraf Ghani in Tehran on Tuesday (PTI)
Long-time readers are aware that for ten years I've been reporting
that Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, America will be allied with India, Russia and
Iran, versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. ( "15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
)
In the case of Iran, the generational analysis was pretty
straightforward. In the early 2000s, there were numerous pro-Western
and pro-American riots and demonstrations by college students in Iran.
Of course, the Iranian hardliners crushed them violently, but doing
that didn't change any hearts and minds. Today, those college
students are in the 30s, in positions of power, and they retain those
pro-Western views. ( "9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement"
)
Obviously, that analysis only goes back about 15 years. But in fact,
Hindus and Shias have been closely linked for many centuries, and it's
particularly significant that in 681 AD Hindus fought on the side of
(what would become) the Shias in the most important battle in Islam's
post-Mohammed history -- the Battle of Karbala, the battle that
permanently split the Muslim world of the time into the Sunni and Shia
branches.
During the visit by India's prime minister Narendra Modi to Tehran,
Modi gave a speech that emphasized the long relationship between the
two cultures:
[indent]<QUOTE>"Centuries of free exchange of ideas and traditions,
poets and craftsmen, art and architecture, culture and commerce
have enriched both our civilizations. Our heritage has also been a
source of strength and economic growth for our nations. The
richness of Persian heritage is an integral part of the fabric of
the Indian society. A part of Iranian culture lives in Indian
hearts. And, a slice of Indian heritage is woven into the Iranian
society. Our ancient heroes and epics bear striking parallels. The
dargahs of Azmer Sharif and Hazrat Nizamuddin in India are equally
revered in Iran. Mahabharata and Shahnama, Bhima and Rustam,
Arjuna and Arsh exhibit similarity in our world views and
values. ...
As two ancient civilizations, we are known for our ability to be
inclusive and welcoming to foreign cultures. Our contacts have not
just refined our own cultures. They have also contributed to the
growth of moderate and tolerant societies globally. Sufism a rich
product of our ancient links, carried its message of true love,
tolerance and acceptance to the entire mankind. The spirit of
Sufism is also reflected in the Indian concept of ‘Vasudhaiva
Kutumbakam’, the World as one family. ...
India and Iran have always been partners and friends. Our
historical ties may have seen their share of ups and downs. But,
throughout our partnership has remained a source of boundless
strength for both of us. Time has come for us to regain the past
glory of traditional ties and links. Time has come for us to march
together. In this endeavor, you, the eminent scholars have a
defining role to play."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
After reading that, compare it to the words of China's president Xi
Jinping when he visited Pakistan in April of last year to sign
numerous commercial, security and cultural agreements, including plans
for a $46 billion transportation corridor from Xinjiang province to
the port of Gwadar. ( "27-Apr-15 World View -- China extends its military buildup with Pakistan"
)
During Xi's "historic" visit to Pakistan, he said the following:
[indent]<QUOTE>"This will be my first trip to Pakistan, but I feel as
if I am going to visit the home of my own brother. Over the years,
thanks to the nurturing of generations of leaders and people from
all sectors of both countries, China-Pakistan friendship has
flourished like a tree growing tall and strong. No matter how the
circumstances in our two countries, the region and the world
change, our bilateral relations have enjoyed sound and steady
growth. We have always respected, understood and supported each
other on issues concerning our respective core interests. In
Pakistan, our relationship is poetically hailed as a friendship
“higher than mountains, deeper than oceans and sweeter than
honey.” In China, Pakistan is known as a sincere and reliable
friend. Obviously, China-Pakistan friendship is deeply felt in the
hearts of our two peoples."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
In May 2011, Pakistan's ambassador to China Masood Khan described the relationship between Pakistan and China
as "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger
than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight."
These two displays of deep affection, India with Iran and China with
Pakistan, may sound like true love, but they're the portent of things
to come, the coming Clash of Civilizations world war will pit India,
Iran and others versus China, Pakistan and others, in the bloodiest
and most destructive war in world history. Narendri Modi and Times of India and Pakistan Observer
****
**** Iran, India and the classic fables of Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, Jataka and Panchatantra
****
During Narendra Modi's speech, excerpted above, Modi said the
following:
[indent]<QUOTE>"India and Iran are two civilizations that celebrate
the meeting of our great cultures. The rare Persian manuscript
Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, released just now, captures the close
historical links between India and Iran. It is remarkable how the
simple stories of the Indian classics of Jataka and Panchatantra
became the Persian Kalileh-wa-Dimneh. It is a classic example of
exchange and travel of cultural ideas between two societies. A
beautiful demonstration of how our two cultures and countries
think alike. A true depiction of the wisdom of our ancient
civilizations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
I had never heard of these classics, but I checked out the
Kalileh-wa-Dimneh. I've only had time to skim through it, but it's a
fascinating collection of fables and stories that remind me of Aesop's
Fables. It would be well worth your time, Dear Reader, to take a look
for yourself. Kalileh-wa-Dimneh
****
**** The Caspian Corridor and the New Silk Road
****
![[Image: g160120c.gif]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160120c.gif)
The Caspian Trade Corridor is part of the New Silk Road connecting Asia with Europe
In ancient times the Silk Road, a complex road network, was the most
favored transport route between China and Europe. Today, there's a
great deal of renewed interest in developing a New Silk Road, new
trade routes between Asia and Europe. This article describes two such
trade routes, through the ports of Chabahar and Gwadar, respectively.
It's worth mentioning one additional trade route from Asia to Europe,
the Caspian Corridor, that I've written about before. ( "21-Jan-16 World View -- Azerbaijan forced to choose between Russia and Turkey"
)
The plan is to develop infrastructure within the Caspian Sea to
effectively connect Central Asia to the Caucasus region. Goods can
travel overland from India and China through Central Asia by truck and
railway, to a port on the Caspian Sea. From there, the goods are
ferried across the Caspian Sea to a port in Azerbaijan. From there,
they can travel overland again, through Georgia, Turkey, and then into
Europe, including Ukraine.
The Caspian Corridor is suitable for Pakistan and China, but not for
India, since it would require land transport across Pakistan, which
apparently has been forbidden. In fact, Pakistan and China have
effectively isolated India from Afghanistan and Central Asia. India
has been forced to use costly and impractical routes to reach the
heart of Asia and Asiatic Russia.
For that reason, the Chabahar port project is considered a "game
changer," and will make a significant difference for India and
Afghanistan. According to Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani: "A
hundred years from now historians will remember this day as the start
of regional cooperation. We wanted to prove that geography is not our
destiny. With our will we can change geography." Deccan Chronicle (India)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Iran, Pakistan, China, Chabahar, Gwadar,
Narendra Modi, Hassan Rouhani, Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani,
Battle of Karbala, Shias, Sunnis, Hindus, Masood Khan,
Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, Jataka, Panchatantra, Aesop,
Caspian Corridor, New Silk Road
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Iran and India sign 'historic' deal for Iran's Chabahar port
- Chabahar port deal highlights enmity between Iran-India versus Pakistan-China
- Iran, India and the classic fables of Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, Jataka and Panchatantra
- The Caspian Corridor and the New Silk Road
****
**** Iran and India sign 'historic' deal for Iran's Chabahar port
****
Map displaying the trade routes related to the Chabahar and Gwadar ports (Defence.pk)
In a two-day visit to Iran's capital city Tehran, India's prime
minister Narendra Modi and Iran's president Hassan Rouhani signed a
dozen commercial, security and cultural agreements.
The most important was the "historic" Chabahar Port agreement.
Chabahar is on the coast of Iran near Pakistan. India has agreed to
invest $500 million to significantly increase the size of this port.
Using it, India will be able to bypass Pakistan in shipping goods to
Iran, and from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia or Europe.
(Chabahar is the large red star on the map above, and the red lines
are proposed travel routes from Mumbai to Chabahar, through Iran to
Central Asia and Europe.)
The proposal fo build up the Chabahar has been discussed since the
1990s, but agreements have been slow to come. Then the whole project
was put on hold because of international sanctions on Tehran. So this
deal comes just four months after international sanctions have been
lifted.
China has been investing heavily in the Pakistan's port at Gwadar,
shown by the large purple star in the map above. The purple lines
show China's trade routes to the Mideast:
- The thin purple lines show China's traditional trade route --
through the South China Sea, then through the Strait of Malacca
through the Andaman Sea to ports in Burma, then through the Bay of
Bengal to ports in Sri Lanka, and then across the Indian Ocean. The
small purple stars show China's "String of Pearls" port facilities
along the route.
- The thick purple lines show the overland route between China,
through Pakistan, to the port of Gwadar.
A visitor from Mars might wonder why India doesn't just ship
commercial goods over land through Pakistan to the port of Gwadar or
to Iran. The answer is that in December of last year, Pakistan's
government said that it would not permit Indian goods to be
transported across Pakistan.
Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani was also in Tehran on Tuesday to
join in the announcement of the Chabahar Port agreement. The
agreement is significant for Afghanistan, because it will mean a great
deal of increased trade with its ally, India. Indian Express and Tehran Times and Dawn (Pakistan - 10-Dec-2015)
****
**** Chabahar port deal highlights enmity between Iran-India versus Pakistan-China
****
Narendra Modi, Hassan Rouhani and Ashraf Ghani in Tehran on Tuesday (PTI)
Long-time readers are aware that for ten years I've been reporting
that Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, America will be allied with India, Russia and
Iran, versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. ( "15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal"
)
In the case of Iran, the generational analysis was pretty
straightforward. In the early 2000s, there were numerous pro-Western
and pro-American riots and demonstrations by college students in Iran.
Of course, the Iranian hardliners crushed them violently, but doing
that didn't change any hearts and minds. Today, those college
students are in the 30s, in positions of power, and they retain those
pro-Western views. ( "9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement"
)
Obviously, that analysis only goes back about 15 years. But in fact,
Hindus and Shias have been closely linked for many centuries, and it's
particularly significant that in 681 AD Hindus fought on the side of
(what would become) the Shias in the most important battle in Islam's
post-Mohammed history -- the Battle of Karbala, the battle that
permanently split the Muslim world of the time into the Sunni and Shia
branches.
During the visit by India's prime minister Narendra Modi to Tehran,
Modi gave a speech that emphasized the long relationship between the
two cultures:
[indent]<QUOTE>"Centuries of free exchange of ideas and traditions,
poets and craftsmen, art and architecture, culture and commerce
have enriched both our civilizations. Our heritage has also been a
source of strength and economic growth for our nations. The
richness of Persian heritage is an integral part of the fabric of
the Indian society. A part of Iranian culture lives in Indian
hearts. And, a slice of Indian heritage is woven into the Iranian
society. Our ancient heroes and epics bear striking parallels. The
dargahs of Azmer Sharif and Hazrat Nizamuddin in India are equally
revered in Iran. Mahabharata and Shahnama, Bhima and Rustam,
Arjuna and Arsh exhibit similarity in our world views and
values. ...
As two ancient civilizations, we are known for our ability to be
inclusive and welcoming to foreign cultures. Our contacts have not
just refined our own cultures. They have also contributed to the
growth of moderate and tolerant societies globally. Sufism a rich
product of our ancient links, carried its message of true love,
tolerance and acceptance to the entire mankind. The spirit of
Sufism is also reflected in the Indian concept of ‘Vasudhaiva
Kutumbakam’, the World as one family. ...
India and Iran have always been partners and friends. Our
historical ties may have seen their share of ups and downs. But,
throughout our partnership has remained a source of boundless
strength for both of us. Time has come for us to regain the past
glory of traditional ties and links. Time has come for us to march
together. In this endeavor, you, the eminent scholars have a
defining role to play."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
After reading that, compare it to the words of China's president Xi
Jinping when he visited Pakistan in April of last year to sign
numerous commercial, security and cultural agreements, including plans
for a $46 billion transportation corridor from Xinjiang province to
the port of Gwadar. ( "27-Apr-15 World View -- China extends its military buildup with Pakistan"
)
During Xi's "historic" visit to Pakistan, he said the following:
[indent]<QUOTE>"This will be my first trip to Pakistan, but I feel as
if I am going to visit the home of my own brother. Over the years,
thanks to the nurturing of generations of leaders and people from
all sectors of both countries, China-Pakistan friendship has
flourished like a tree growing tall and strong. No matter how the
circumstances in our two countries, the region and the world
change, our bilateral relations have enjoyed sound and steady
growth. We have always respected, understood and supported each
other on issues concerning our respective core interests. In
Pakistan, our relationship is poetically hailed as a friendship
“higher than mountains, deeper than oceans and sweeter than
honey.” In China, Pakistan is known as a sincere and reliable
friend. Obviously, China-Pakistan friendship is deeply felt in the
hearts of our two peoples."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
In May 2011, Pakistan's ambassador to China Masood Khan described the relationship between Pakistan and China
as "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger
than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight."
These two displays of deep affection, India with Iran and China with
Pakistan, may sound like true love, but they're the portent of things
to come, the coming Clash of Civilizations world war will pit India,
Iran and others versus China, Pakistan and others, in the bloodiest
and most destructive war in world history. Narendri Modi and Times of India and Pakistan Observer
****
**** Iran, India and the classic fables of Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, Jataka and Panchatantra
****
During Narendra Modi's speech, excerpted above, Modi said the
following:
[indent]<QUOTE>"India and Iran are two civilizations that celebrate
the meeting of our great cultures. The rare Persian manuscript
Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, released just now, captures the close
historical links between India and Iran. It is remarkable how the
simple stories of the Indian classics of Jataka and Panchatantra
became the Persian Kalileh-wa-Dimneh. It is a classic example of
exchange and travel of cultural ideas between two societies. A
beautiful demonstration of how our two cultures and countries
think alike. A true depiction of the wisdom of our ancient
civilizations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
I had never heard of these classics, but I checked out the
Kalileh-wa-Dimneh. I've only had time to skim through it, but it's a
fascinating collection of fables and stories that remind me of Aesop's
Fables. It would be well worth your time, Dear Reader, to take a look
for yourself. Kalileh-wa-Dimneh
****
**** The Caspian Corridor and the New Silk Road
****
The Caspian Trade Corridor is part of the New Silk Road connecting Asia with Europe
In ancient times the Silk Road, a complex road network, was the most
favored transport route between China and Europe. Today, there's a
great deal of renewed interest in developing a New Silk Road, new
trade routes between Asia and Europe. This article describes two such
trade routes, through the ports of Chabahar and Gwadar, respectively.
It's worth mentioning one additional trade route from Asia to Europe,
the Caspian Corridor, that I've written about before. ( "21-Jan-16 World View -- Azerbaijan forced to choose between Russia and Turkey"
)
The plan is to develop infrastructure within the Caspian Sea to
effectively connect Central Asia to the Caucasus region. Goods can
travel overland from India and China through Central Asia by truck and
railway, to a port on the Caspian Sea. From there, the goods are
ferried across the Caspian Sea to a port in Azerbaijan. From there,
they can travel overland again, through Georgia, Turkey, and then into
Europe, including Ukraine.
The Caspian Corridor is suitable for Pakistan and China, but not for
India, since it would require land transport across Pakistan, which
apparently has been forbidden. In fact, Pakistan and China have
effectively isolated India from Afghanistan and Central Asia. India
has been forced to use costly and impractical routes to reach the
heart of Asia and Asiatic Russia.
For that reason, the Chabahar port project is considered a "game
changer," and will make a significant difference for India and
Afghanistan. According to Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani: "A
hundred years from now historians will remember this day as the start
of regional cooperation. We wanted to prove that geography is not our
destiny. With our will we can change geography." Deccan Chronicle (India)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Iran, Pakistan, China, Chabahar, Gwadar,
Narendra Modi, Hassan Rouhani, Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani,
Battle of Karbala, Shias, Sunnis, Hindus, Masood Khan,
Kalileh-wa-Dimneh, Jataka, Panchatantra, Aesop,
Caspian Corridor, New Silk Road
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
