Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Apr-21 World View -- The Troubles: Violence in Northern Ireland revives as consequence of Brexit

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The Troubles: Violence in Northern Ireland revives as consequence of Brexit
  
• Brief generational history of violence in the Isle of Ireland
  
• The beginning of 'The Troubles'
  

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**** The Troubles: Violence in Northern Ireland revives as consequence of Brexit
****


Hijacked cars burn at the Peace Wall as rioting broke out in West Belfast, Northern Ireland on Wednesday (AP)

The last week in Belfast, Northern Ireland, has seen the worst ethnic
street violence in decades. There is a concrete "Peace Wall" in
Belfast, separating the two warring neighborhoods. People have been
lobbing bricks and Molotov cocktails across the Peace Wall in both
directions. The violence worsened when the gate in the Peace Wall was
smashed open. At least 55 police officers have been injured over
several nights of rioting.

The violence has been triggered by the consequences of the Brexit
deal that took the United Kingdom (England, Wales, Scotland,
Northern Ireland) out of the European Union. There were many
difficult issues that had to be resolved, but the most intractable
was the fact that Northern Ireland is part of the UK, while the
Republic of Ireland (Southern Ireland) is part of the EU. This
is the only place (if you don't count Gibraltar) where there is
a land border separating the UK and the EU after Brexit.

So the biggest deal in the Brexit negotiations was that Ireland and
Northern Ireland must have a "frictionless border," so that people and
goods could pass freely back and forth without customs and border
checks. So a Spanish company that wants to ship goods to England
without paying British tariffs could simply trans-ship them through
Northern Ireland -- that is, ship them to Ireland, send them across
the "frictionless border" to Northern Ireland, and then ship them
across the Irish Sea to England. Similarly, an English firm could
ship goods to Spain by trans-shipping in the opposite direction, and
avoid paying EU tariffs.

Well, that could never work. No politician is going to voluntarily
give up tariffs. So the solution is that there has to be a
"customs border in the Irish Sea." So goods shipped back and
forth between England and Northern Ireland now have to go
through customs and result in tariff charges.

During the Brexit negotiations, politicians said that if there were a
customs check between Northern Ireland and Ireland, then this would
infuriate the "Catholic republicans," and would trigger a revival of
"The Troubles," the three decades violence in Northern Ireland. So
they did it the other way, and put in a customs check in the Irish
Sea, and this has infuriated the "Protestant loyalists," and this is
triggering a revival of The Troubles anyway.

****
**** Brief generational history of violence in the Isle of Ireland
****

Northern Ireland's indigenous Gaelic Irish people (usually Catholic,
republican, nationalist, "green") have been at war with the
descendants of invading English and Scottish people (usually
Protestant, loyalist, unionist, "orange") off and on since the 1400s.
The Republicans want Northern Ireland to merge with the Republic of
(Southern) Ireland, while the Loyalists want to remain loyal to the
British crown and have Northern Ireland remain in the UK.

There have been clashes between the two groups since the 1400s, but
the most important pattern of wars was set by the Nine Years War
(1594-1603), where the Irish Gaelics attempted to overthrow English
rule. The result was the Plantation of Ulster, which Gaelics today
refer to as genocide and "ethnic cleansing," because the British drove
the Gaelics from their land, took it over as landlords, and used the
Gaelics as servants.

The next crisis war for Northern Ireland was the Williamite-Jacobite
war, climaxing in a victory of the British with the Battle of the
Boyne on July 12, 1690. This was the date of the victory of
Protestant William of Orange over the Catholic King James II, and it
followed England's Glorious Revolution of 1688, where the Dutch Prince
William "invaded" England and overthrew King James without firing a
shot. Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland tends to increase as
July 12 approaches, as it's commemorated by groups like the Protestant
Orange Institution.

The border across Ireland first appeared in 1921 as a result of the
British-Irish treaty that partitioned the island and ended the Irish
War of Independence, with the new borderline running across farms and
villages.

****
**** The beginning of 'The Troubles'
****

"The Troubles" began in 1969, when hostilities broke out in Northern
Ireland, and the border was reinforced with British Army watchtowers
and bomb-proof and mortar-proof inspection facilities. All of those
reinforcements were removed as a result of the 1998 Good Friday
Agreement, with a new power-sharing accord that was supposed to break
down some of the barriers between south and north, including the
physical barrier at the border.

The "Good Friday Agreement" has achieved almost mythic status among
politicians, and its terms were frequently cited during the Brexit
negotiations as inviolable, lest The Troubles begin again. The result
was the "frictionless border" between Ireland and Northern Ireland,
but instead there's a customs border between Northern Ireland and
England, and The Troubles seems to be starting again anyway.

There's a lot of finger-pointing now as to the cause of the new
violence, with many people blaming Boris Johnson for his "betrayal" of
the Northern Ireland loyalists. But from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, the revival of The Troubles is not surprising,
inasmuch as a full generation has passed since the Good Friday
agreement, and young kids are not going to care about a piece of paper
or an ancient agreement that was signed before many of them were even
born.

Sources:

• How lingering tensions over Brexit ignited Northern Ireland (Christian Science Monitor, 8-Apr-2021)
  
• Northern Ireland leaders call for calm after night of rioting (Fox News, 8-Apr-2021)
  
• N Ireland leaders call for calm after night of violence (AP, 8-Apr-2021)
  
• Bus torched in more Northern Ireland violence as British and Irish leaders call for calm (CNN, 8-Apr-2021)
  
• Northern Ireland unrest: Four key questions answered (Al-Jazeera, 8-Apr-2021)
  
• Spilling onto the streets - Brexit is the catalyst for rioting in Northern Ireland (Economist, 8-Apr-2021)
  
• Northern Ireland's hidden history: Archaeologist works to identify unmarked mass graves (NBC News, 8-Apr-2021)
  
• The tone and economics of Northern Ireland’s political debate has to change. (Slugger OToole, Northern Ireland, 8-Apr-2021)
  
• Boris Johnson’s Brexit ‘betrayal’ is factor behind Northern Ireland violence, Stormont minister says (Yahoo, 8-Apr-2021)

Related Articles:

• The Brexit comedy continues as the UK Supreme Court repudiates Boris Johnson (25-Sep-2019)
  
  
• Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK (19-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Ireland hiring 1,000 new customs and veterinary inspectors for hard Brexit (20-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Ireland border issue continues to confound Brexit negotiations (17-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, The Troubles, Northern Ireland, Belfast,
Ireland, Republic of Ireland, England, Wales, Scotland,
European Union, Catholic, Protestant, Gaelics,
Nine Years War, Plantation of Ulster,
Williamite-Jacobite war, Battle of the Boyne, Glorious Revolution,
Good Friday Agreement

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John J. Xenakis
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