Election 2020

[Bob Butler 54]

(01-07-2020, 03:22 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(01-07-2020, 03:01 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: A so called cold civil war seems to say no regeneracy, no crisis war, and transformation by legislature.  This would not be a typical Industrial Age S&H pattern.

Well, we're in the Information Age now, right? (and greenpeace age)

Welcome to the new style 4T.

Yep. I have long looked at history through 3 filters; turnings, ages and civilizations. Some trends.

As ages are different, the details of the turnings are suspect. While some trends observed during a given age will hold in the next, it is best to confirm the trend as the age changes. A healthy dose of skepticism is required. The notable set of changes is that the S&H trends observed primarily in the Industrial Age do not necessarily hold in the Information Age.

The length of the typical Industrial Age is a few centuries, which is about the duration of the typical Industrial Age. It is common for the Industrial Age transition to take as long as the age, to switch from kings to legislatures, to switch from slavery and serfdom to land owned by the elites, to switch from military landowners to robber barons. By the time all these transitions are complete, the Information Age is already there.

The form of the transition changes among civilizations. The West had revolutions and civil wars. Eastern Europe and Asia had fascism and communism. The Middle East is going straight from Agricultural Age hereditary and religious values to something modern, and is just beginning their transition. They are trying to reject the values adapted by the West and stay with an Agricultural Age religious set of values. The common trend is that no matter where the transition occurs it is ugly, though the nature of how things get ugly changes.

While civilizations transitioning after the West can try to copy what works best, they are at a disadvantage in that the West is ahead of them in many ways. It does not help to end up colonized, to have resources stolen, to have sets of western values discredited. The West is often about expanding the influence and power of their elites, not about spreading their ideals.

The Information Age is beginning with various civilizations already in transition. Many civilizations are still autocratic. A few are still religious. While it may be possible to guess at Information Age patterns, it is far too early to say the guessed at Information Age patterns are predictable and inevitable.