What the next First Turning won't be like

[David Horn]

(12-06-2020, 06:45 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(12-02-2020, 05:18 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Repeating myself.....  

Trying to be optimistic about the future.......

1.  Crisis of 2020. (weak and/or non-standard 4T?).   2.  Weak 1T?   3.  Awakening (likely of the Apollo type).  4.  Unraveling.   5.  Projected Crisis of 2100.  6.  "High"?   7.  Awakening (likely Dionysus type).

With number 7 I am projecting about a century into the future, based on the double rhythm.  Trying to project beyond that starts to seem like science fiction.

(Note-some countries may have a double rhythm that is reversed to the USA, so their next 2T may be of the Dionysus type).

I am sticking with #1.  A crisis in the Industrial Age generally centered on a crisis war.  With crisis wars becomming very rare for major powers in the Information Age, the crisis has to be unusual by Industrial Age standards.  If you are not into the age aspect of viewing history, you would expect the older pattern to continue.  As is, COVID and the Black Lives Matter issues did create something very like an Industrial Age crisis, but either or both might not have happened.  

I was looking at a crisis alignment of generations following a long and obvious unravelling going by with no trigger, no regeneracy.  That didn't happen.  But obviously, you can't expect Information Age crises to be just like an Industrial Age one.  Nukes, proxy wars and insurgencies have contributed to making profit from violence obsolete by major powers.  That invalidates the turning patterns.  To continue the pattern you need a different sort of trigger, a different kind of crisis.  At that, I suspect the awakening and legislation will yield a greater change in the culture than the crisis.  It is still a bit early to confirm that is happening.

The real issues are still out there getting little serious attention: AGW and economic inequality.  Yes, COVID is the most serious at the moment, but it's already being addressed.  Social issues including race and class are perpetual, and may be on a down-trending cycle.  It's hard to know for sure when the public nerve is still throbbing, but let's hope that's true.  Nothing else will get a hearing until that occurs.  

But AGW is existential, and inequality has a history of creating real havoc -- just ask the Bourbons and the Romanovs.  Both are being pushed off the front page, and the political climate makes it unlikely they will reemerge until a serious event forces the issue.  If that's decades in the future, the result will be highly dangerous for everyone.