What the next First Turning won't be like

[David Horn]

(01-08-2021, 03:03 PM)mamabug Wrote: Getting back to the original post - what the next First Turning looks like will depend entirely on how the side in power (which controls basically all institutions at this point) handles dissent over the next 2-4 years.  The more heavy handed the approach, the scarier the High appears to me.

Best case - extremists on both sides (alt-right and antifa) are suppressed; a social consensus around American values is reached that is mostly progressive, but allows some level of dissent without repercussions that threaten livelihoods; the foundational structures of America (SCOTUS, Senate, Congress, etc.) are not changed.  In that case, the high will be similar to that after WW2 where some Civil Rights changes that occurred in the later years were rolled back, but overall there was improvement over the previous Awakening.  This would mean freezing any current advancements about where they are now or quietly rolling them back.

What it would look like:

1.  LGB rights are here to stay, but churches and some religious institutions (but not all) can still exclude from employment
2. Women's and Minority rights are here to stay, however the emphasis will remain on equality of opportunity not equity of outcome
3. Trans rights will be halted at current state or rolled back.  I expect there would be an eventual 'compromise' around how to deal with things such as women's sports, unisex facilities like prisons, and pre-adult transitioning which will please nobody and come back to bite everyone in the next awakening.

This is unlikely, not because it hasn't happened before, but because it has. I'm sure the economic elites would love it, but I don't see either side accepting a return to faux social liberalism and even more economic libertarianism. The inequality is too great already, and must be addressed somehow. Then there's AGW -- the ultimate 800 pound gorilla.

Some new direction needs to be found that comports with a 1T. I have no idea what that is, which is why I think we have a way to go getting there.

mamabug Wrote:Worst case - extremists and moderates on one side are suppressed both violently and through economic persecution; a social consensus is declared to exist which allows no level of dissent without repercussions; the foundational structures of America are altered to ensure continued dominance of one side.  In that case, the high will be similar to post-WW2 Soviet Union (which, yes, was still a high).  

I have no real predictions for what that would look like based on precedent, it could go in so many different ways depending on who eventually gains power.  My best guess is something like 1984 meets Fahrenheit 451 meets Harrison Bergeron.

What we call the alt-right is just the newest manifestation of the ancient tribal hierarchy asserting itself. I'm not sure it can be suppressed or, better, reversed, but it needs to be addressed in full. Modernity can't tolerate this ancient model, with recent events the most obvious demonstration of that sad fact.