01-09-2021, 12:14 PM
Quote:This is unlikely, not because it hasn't happened before, but because it has. I'm sure the economic elites would love it, but I don't see either side accepting a return to faux social liberalism and even more economic libertarianism. The inequality is too great already, and must be addressed somehow. Then there's AGW -- the ultimate 800 pound gorilla.I agree the best case is unlikely to happen as neither side seems sufficiently exhausted. The opposite, in fact, the dominant faction on one side is very much operating with a zero sum mentality which won't allow it to compromise and is demanding retribution.
I disagree that the economic elites would love it or that they even want it to happen. My cynical nomad side sees that they are the ones driving the conflict in the first place. At it's heart, Crisis are a battle over who will control the levers of power that determine how resources are produced and consumed. Fundamentally, it is a take-no-prisoners fight between elites. The moral battle that plays out is a result of the coalition building each side does while putting forth the argument that they are the rightful rulers. The moral component is needed to prevent the rank and file from believing the other side is even human, let alone someone who could be compromised with.
AGW, inequity, independence, collectivism, slavery, monarchy, etc. are all the moral battle cries that are used as a pretext for the conflict. As the theory states, it isn't the event/problem which causes the crisis it is the way the event/problem is perceived and reacted too. COVID-19 is a perfect example as we could have reacted to it like the Spanish Flu or SARS, but because of the exact time in which it hit we are responding to in a uniquely collectivist and statist way.
This Crisis appears to me to be a battle between those who want to maintain the American Empire that ascended after WW2 and those that want to form a new global empire. It has been weird to watch as the coalitions morphed over the years, I still remember when 'buy American' and 'union made' was the rallying cry of the party that is now firmly in the globalist camp. I suspect it will be the winning side, not because of moral rightness (because that doesn't win battles), but because it has built the strongest coalition of elites that will benefit from the desired outcome. Recruiting the pro-war side of the Republican party could be looked at as the turning point.
God, I still remember marching against war with my progressive classmates. When did the world get so weird?
Quote:What we call the alt-right is just the newest manifestation of the ancient tribal hierarchy asserting itself. I'm not sure it can be suppressed or, better, reversed, but it needs to be addressed in full. Modernity can't tolerate this ancient model, with recent events the most obvious demonstration of that sad fact.
Both sides are tribal, that's just how humans work. Saying it doesn't belong in the modern era is like saying love and desire for family don't belong in it. We can never eliminate tribalism or suppress it, the trick it to channel and redirect it to work towards a stable society. Both factions currently have their violent tribalists. Both have factions that just want to watch the world burn. In a non-Crisis era, society as a whole wouldn't tolerate either of them (or would tolerate both equally). In a Crisis era, the Overton Window will increasingly move away from the unfavored side until it eventually excludes not just the extremist factions, but anyone within six degrees of separation ideologically from them. The larger the group of people whose values and beliefs are excluded from the window, the greater the potential of serious violence.
I think that is why I am apprehensive about the coming First turning. This conflict is playing out on global, non-regionalized scale. There will be no Canada for the British loyalists to move to, no South to hide in and pretend the world hasn't changed. This has the potential to be the Russian Revolution with race, gender, and religion as the nexus that defines the class system that must be obliterated but no 'west' for the dissenters to be exiled too. Currently, I don't see anyone in the Democratic party who would be able to form a stable center that allows for a majority of conservatives (remember, still half the country) to align with the emerging regime without feeling like they have sacrificed their bottom line. Biden is too much of a Silent, Kamala too Gen X, and AOC too Millenial. In some ways, I feel like Obama was the right leader at the wrong time.