What the next First Turning won't be like

[Eric the Green]

(01-10-2021, 12:54 PM)mamabug Wrote: Hi Eric.  I appreciate your response, but I'm not going to respond point by point as I think it would take me down a rabbit hole I'm trying to avoid.

Well, you just never know what might be lurking down in those holes

Quote:  I would like to point out, though, that a large majority of it is exactly why I am worried about how the rest of this 4T will play out and what makes me think the high is going to look different from the most recent one in our national memory.

I take the evolutionary biology approach to human nature and believe 'tribalism' is embedded our nature.  Over history, the internalization of who is considered 'our tribe' (or our in-group) has changed multiple times.  Over the cycles, what changes is how strongly we identify with our tribe (in-group preference) and the bounds where we draw who is in and out of our tribe (social cohesion).  In all eras, different small 'tribes' form shifting coalitions with others to create a more global 'tribe' that represents a 'side' in a culture war. You are part of a tribe as well (as am I), if you weren't you would be either a psychopath or inhuman.

During a 4T in-group preference is at it's height and the bounds of who is in that in-group is at it's narrowest.  This is why 4Ts have the potential for some of the worst atrocities and injustices.  If we think of a human's ability to empathize as a mostly finite resource, strong in-group preference means they will only empathize with the members of their tribe.  Any group outside of their tribe is subject to marginalization (at best), discrimination, demonization, scapegoating, and destruction (at worst).   You illustrate this mindset with this quote:

The tribal Republicans are nothing that anyone should appease or include. They just need to go away, period.

Quote:I agree with your points about how the Right demonizes and scapegoats it's out-group (although you missed big tech, academia, and the media).  I pulled out the quote above because it illustrates the demonizing and scapegoating that is happening on the Left.  I ask you to consider how the in-group preference dynamic might work if the other side doesn't just simply slink away and what logical events might play out depending on who is acting as this turnings visionary leader.

In a 'best case' 4T (for the nation, not for a given out-group), one of the global in-groups grows large enough to encompass a super-majority of the population (at least 75+ percent I would say).  Those on the outer bounds of the global group may not feel 100% comfortable, but they are not subject to potential persecution.  In our last cycle, this is what occurred.  The out-group consisted of communists, fascists, and non-white Americans but generally included everybody else and explains why it wasn't marked by as much internecine struggle as the previous two turnings.  Conversely, this was also the model for Nazi Germany so the model doesn't say much about how the out-groups get treated or the morality of the ideology that wins.  

In a 'worst case' 4T, two roughly equal in-groups grow and both sides demonize and scapegoat the other.  They could resolve it through a contentious divorce (American Revolution where Canada became the alternative for those who wanted to remain part of Britain) or by attempting to thoroughly annihilate the losing out-group (Russian and French Revolutions).  That, sadly, has the strongest possibility to be happening here and the more intense it gets, the less I see a good outcome due to the factors I mentioned before about lack of an exit for those on the losing side. 

What makes the 4T particularly scary is the tendency to excuse moral violations (up to and including genocide) done by 'my tribe' against those in the out-group.  It was why it was deemed 'okay' for Sherman to raze Atlanta, for FDR to imprison American Citizens, for Truman to drop the bomb, for the guillotine, the gulags, the reeducation camps, and so on.  I just hope we stop at a place that future generations will still excoriate us for but falls far short of mass graves).

In the coming 1T, the bounds of the now victorious in-group will still be tightly drawn, but in-group preference will wane.  This allows the Artist generations to start reaching out to remaining members of the despised out-groups and begin broadening the in-group's bounds to gradually include them.  So, good news for cis-white-working-class men, I guess, in about 20 years people will start caring about you again.  

Honestly, at this point, it is entirely with the Left's control just how bad the 4T gets (in terms of, you know, outright killing or gulag-style imprisonment of American citizens).  From my perspective, the key is to stop demonizing and scapegoating every Republican, conservative, and/or person who voted for Trump.  They need to push the bounds of who is in the in-group out far enough to allow people like rural gun-owners, conservative Christians and Jews, and civil libertarians back in (preferably without a struggle session).  Unfortunately, I really don't see that happening.  Instead, I see the farthest Left wing of the Democratic party tightening the 'in-group' even further which will open the door for increasing violence on both sides.

I agree that this best case scenario you mention could happen. My concern is that, if the double rhythm has any bearing on what happens, that this 4T may be more like the civil war 4T. The domestic emphasis and the greater division of the country in this 4T suggests it might not be easy for the country to come together. What I see though (and I also use planetary cycles as clue to what has and might happen, and I also agree with some of Bob Butler's analysis) is that an all-out total war like 1861-65 is less likely to happen today. I don't think you have to envision that the blue side would attempt all-out annihilation. That is not the nature of the Left today, and I don't know why you assume that it is. The Right wing, on the other hand, has a large group within it that, as we saw on Jan.6, would like nothing more than to assault and kill members of the other side. But the bright side of that is that there aren't enough numbers of them to actually win a fight, if the blue side controls enough of the levers of state power.

How the right-wing is thinking these days makes a difference. Right now they are moved by conspiracy theories and other exaggerated notions that could just melt away over time. Fantasies are more like bubbles that burst than bullets that get fired. Truth has a way of sinking in. QAnon is just the most ridiculous of these, but the Trump side really believe it won the election, and they really believe that the Left is a bunch of communists seeking to set up a new world order. Many also think that the black lives matter protests and antifa are violent, when this Summer the spontaneous violent outbursts only lasted a day or two after unjust police killings and maimings, and also included provocateurs of various sorts.

The most likely scenario I have already long predicted is what we have already seen now. The right-wing, out of power, seeks to take over the country violently, but they don't have nearly enough numbers to succeed. What needs to happen is certainly that the neo-liberal, libertarian-economics, pro-gun, anti-abortion, social-conservative, anti-immigrant, racist faction is defeated, but by triumph at the polls, as we saw in Georgia. That does not mean that "people like rural gun-owners, conservative Christians" at al are no longer allowed to exist or be Americans, but just that they are no longer allowed to set policy in the USA in their dogmatic and obstructionist way, and certainly are not allowed to take over in a violent coup. The Left in the USA is naturally moderate and can work out workable and reasonable compromises. So, no, it is not up to the Left how the 4T goes. That ball is entirely in the Right-wing's Court. They are unwilling to compromise now, and their goal is to block all progress, which is what they have done for 40 years. It is time now for progress to return, or our nation and civilization in the world will be destroyed, not by some actions of the Left, but simply by allowing current powers and conditions to continue doing what they are now doing.

Depending on what happens, this might mean that the Left has to take some actions that might seem radical, such as putting more liberals on the supreme court, or making DC and PR states, and/or reducing or removing the filibuster. But that is a far cry from what you suggest the Left might do. Nevertheless, such actions might arouse the Right-wing to violently oppose them, and so might more gun control, higher taxes, health care for all, a green new deal, a more-lenient immigration policy, minimum wages and social safety nets, and so on. But these things may well be needed, and if the Right-wing can't accept them if they are duly and legally instituted, then that is on them, and if they act violently, they will be dealt with as needed.