What the next First Turning won't be like

[Eric the Green]

(01-11-2021, 08:51 PM)mamabug Wrote: I accept that all out annihilation is the absolute worst case and it isn't the nature of the Left I grew up with and that is represented by those in the older generations.  I don't see it happening unless it turns from a Civil War scenario to a Revolutionary one.  There are definitely elements within the Left that want a real revolution and they have been gaining power within the political establishment.  4Ts are genie's in a bottle and I could easily war game out a scenario where, after the 2022 election, they somehow manage to gain power.  Biden's election did nothing to affect the unrest in Portland, and trust me, you need to be seriously committed to your cause to protest during a Pac NW winter.  I don't even like walking my dog in it.

The protests in Portland made a good foil for Trump to exaggerate out of all proportion, and the slogan "defund the police" was easy to use too. But none of that means that protesters can carry out a revolution. I don't see millennials as passionate or radical enough to make the Left revolutionary. I think you are right that increasing numbers on the left want a real "revolution," but people like AOC and the Squad are not organizing battalions like the Right-wing is. Someone like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren just put out good common sense solutions which appeal to many people who think they can be enacted through winning elections.

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Quote:but the Trump side really believe it won the election, and they really believe that the Left is a bunch of communists seeking to set up a new world order. 

Yes there is a lot of out-grouping going on in both directions.  Many on the Left are convinced everyone on the right is a racist, homophobic, reactionary who wants to instill a fascist regime.  

Our description of the right-wing is much more accurate. After all, 90-95% of Republicans support Donald Trump, who IS a racist reactionary who wants to set up a fascist regime. I don't see them clamoring for his impeachment now either.

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Quote:Many also think that the black lives matter protests and antifa are violent, when this Summer the spontaneous violent outbursts only lasted a day or two after unjust police killings and maimings, and also included provocateurs of various sorts.

Umm... Portland has been protesting (often violently) for so long I lost count of the days and the Chaz lasted three weeks (so more than a day or two) and resulted in 4 deaths.  I agree there were a lot of provocateurs, most of which had to do with the 'hands off' approach of local government.  If you tell people there won't be consequences for looting and burning things down, don't be surprised if a bunch of sociopaths show up to take advantage of the situation.

Neither side has a monopoly on violent elements or people who just want to watch the world burn.  That people in both camps are loosing their perspective on that and turning shades of gray into black and white is what makes this a 4T. 

The stat is 90% of domestic terrorism in the USA comes from the right-wing. If neither side has a monopoly on violence, we can certainly say it has an oligarchy. And that's whom it supports, too. I don't know who told people "there won't be consequences for looting and burning things down," and very little has been burned down. But if police, with impunity, continue with this extremist violence of killing unarmed, innocent black men, such men and their supporters will continue to get mad and out of frustration burn down a building or two. Why not support police reform and decry this police violence? Why continue this systemic racism or make excuses for it?

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Quote:So, no, it is not up to the Left how the 4T goes. That ball is entirely in the Right-wing's Court.

Nope, the left is controlling the levers of power so it is up to them. 

The point is, the right-wing still has far too much power. They own the supreme court and have the filibuster, and the majority of states legislatures. Congress has been gerrymandered since 2010 in their favor. The only issue is whether they can keep their 40-year wall against all progress up another 10 or 20 years. They can only carry this stagnation on for so long before the nation collapses.

Quote:They can act proportionately and punish only those who commit acts of violence or they can continuously contract the definition of what is allowable to the point where they can justify assaulting, imprisoning, and impoverishing anyone who is perceived to be against their totally reasonable and unobjectionable agenda.

The Republican agenda is horrific and destructive. But prison will be reserved, as I said, for those who oppose the constructive agenda violently.

I don't know what groups or ideas you consider "totally reasonable and unobjectionable". You admit to being a "libertarian." I appreciate other views on a discussion board besides my own. Your posts are civil and idea-centered, and that's good IMO. But I admit that I don't consider libertarians to be very constructive these days. The word neo-liberal applies today to those who buy into Reaganomics. That means letting business do whatever it wants and lowering their taxes and cutting government programs, because "government is the problem." This approach has been in power for 40 years now, and it has failed. It is time for progress to resume after this 40-year regression back to the 18th century. Really, this is what today's political divide and all the noise amounts to. The issue you brought up about transgender people seems a distraction from facing it; a diversionary tactic at best.