05-01-2017, 04:03 PM
Here's what I see for 2020.
Favorability:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=1;11;7&AR=0;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=1;9;5&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=2;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=1;11;9&MI=1;16;7&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;9&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;3&ND=0;3;7&OH=2;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=4;20;1&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=2;6*;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;5&WV=0;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.
Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.
Approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=0;11;7&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;5&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=1;6;5&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=1;10;9&MA=0;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=2;3;7&NV=0;6;4&NH=1;4;9&NJ=1;14;9&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;5&ND=0;3;7&OH=1;18;7&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=1;20;7&RI=0;4;1&SC=1;9;3&SD=0;3;2&TN=2;11;7&TX=1;38;5&UT=1;6;3&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation
Add 5% to the approval rate for the President, and you will have a rough idea of what share of the binary vote he will get in any state.
I project him to gain nothing from 2016, and to lose at least his three barest wins (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
Favorability:
*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.
Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.
Approval:
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation
Add 5% to the approval rate for the President, and you will have a rough idea of what share of the binary vote he will get in any state.
I project him to gain nothing from 2016, and to lose at least his three barest wins (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.