Election 2020

[David Horn]

(12-17-2018, 08:40 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Well, you said before that McAuliffe had been a competent governor of your state, and that is certainly true. I don't think any of the potential candidates can be known for sure to be a potential Churchill or FDR. Any of them would have to grow into the role, it appears. My scoring method is not too reliable about who has the best skills at BEING president, because the number of examples to look at is small, and people disagree about who should be counted among them. I can guess, according to the astrological traditions, but that would not be the empirical method that seems to work very consistently. There could be an indicator of who each person thinks would be a best president, according to the list of presidents (s)he draws up. As for what is needed in a nominee, the Iowa poll confirmed that the people want someone who can beat Trump. That was confirmed on the PBS Newshour tonight. 

McAuliffe was a really competent crank-turner, and a bit of a salesman to boot. These are all good traits, but far from those needed of a visionary. We desperately need someone who will do for the Democrats what Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan did for the Republicans: point the way.

This time, the way forward has to be something new and innovative. We've never been in a situation like the present, but the same was true when FDR began to fix the mess the markets created in the Great Depression. There is a buzzing sound that tells me that the right idea is being culled from many not-so-good ones, and the culling is being done by groups like Indivisible and the New Democrats. They need to hurry.

Eric Wrote:As you know, I recommend the system I have developed as a good indicator of just who that is. Mostly that can be confirmed by any good observer of the candidates, but Beto O'Rourke seems so far to appear to us as much better than his score indicates. That score says he would go down in flames, even against a crippled Trump. Some are now wondering about him, since he ran as a progressive but his record is less than that. So how consistent, courageous and honest is he, really? Does he have the level of strength needed, and does he give the impression of powerful leadership qualities that Americans vote for, as well as just some charm, idealism, youth, good looks and smooth talk? As you say, he is untested. They say he's like Bobby Kennedy, but RFK's score also suggests that he actually might not have been elected had he lived. Even Humphrey had a better score than RFK too. And there's probably an element of destiny at work as to who actually gets elected. They say character is destiny, but who knows, sometimes larger forces are at work.

Beto has the spark; he may lack the fire. I honestly don't know. I do know that he has a talent to say the right things at the right times. That may not be enough. Unfortunately, there are so few others in the wings with enough grounding to make their vision a reality. Some have suggested that an elder statesman like Joe Biden should run in 2020 on the platform that (s)he will stand aside in 2024. OK, but that's means the VP will have to be one who will carry the flame. Any Veep ideas?