05-25-2016, 01:31 PM
(05-23-2016, 09:05 AM)Mikebert Wrote: There are two views of the meaning of the Trump/Sanders phenomenon. One is they represent the beginning of a party re-alignment. The other being made by Michael Lind is that they present the end of a party re-alignment and the beginning of a policy shift to reflect that realignment.
I have one criticism of Lind's views. For Lind, the sum total of economics is trade and immigration, which are really side issues in economic policy. Far more important is tax policy and the nature of the policy made by economic policymakers. It is still not politically correct in either party to talk about this. Lind glosses over this.
In effect he is saying that the realignment that has occurred as a result of the culture war will stick. That white working class voters will continue to support anti-union, low tax rates on the investor/management class, and accept falling real wages as long as their party shows hostility to nonwhites and cultural elites. In other words guns, gays and abortion have been augments by illegals, Muslims and the Chinese as culture war talking points.
In other words that the 1% will continue to control both parties and politics will be continue to be about stupid shit with real policy limited to rearrangements of the economic deck chairs.
Coming from a turning perspective, I would expect a progressive party to work a transforming agenda that attacks the basic problems of the crisis. As I see us still in a stagnant bickering phase, this hasn't happened yet, the lessons learned from the crisis are yet unlearned, thus any realignment should be judged tentative at this point.
If the transforming party are the victors able to write history books, the opposition would be screaming and clinging to old wisdom through the crisis. At some point in the 1T the flaws in the new transformed culture become clear enough that a new opposition platform should arrive to oppose the dominant post-crisis establishment. Another turning down streams and a new bunch of prophets might voice their opinions. There's a possibility of another realignment then.
But I'm not seeing a classic 4T pattern yet. I'm not entirely sure the need to transform will reach a critical mass.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
