10-12-2018, 10:09 AM
(10-12-2018, 09:12 AM)David Horn Wrote:(10-11-2018, 09:05 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Some pollsters assumed that Democrats would be dispirited after the rush of Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court, and adjusted their model of the electorate accordingly (more Republicans would see themselves as winners and vote, and Democrats would see themselves defeated and unable to change anything.
It could play the other way as well. Nate Cohn, the statistics guru of the NY Times, admitted that the data are too limited and frankly too unreliable to trust. That the GOP has decided to abandon all hope in some races and go all-in on others seems a bit desperate, but may work. We'll know in 26 days when the results are all in.
America is so politically polarized that elections hinge more on who votes and who does not than upon the quality of political candidates. Demographic factors matter more than do merit and scandal.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.