Election 2018

[Eric the Green]

(11-13-2018, 07:02 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: It took me a while using the real clear politics site, and WaPo is no longer available to me, but I found out where the House Democratic and Republican pick-ups were so far.

Blue states, 21 pick-ups and 2 leading, minus 2 GOP pick-ups
Purple states, 12 pick-ups, minus 1 GOP pick-up
Red states, 6 pick-ups and 1 leading (Mia Love in Utah is trailing by .4, but Trump has already denounced her saying she had no love for him)

39 pick-ups, minus 3 GOP pick-ups = 36, plus Democrats leading now for 2 pickups = 38. Democrats should have 233 seats, Republicans 202 unless leads change hands.

I designated Purple states as AZ CO MI PA, as well as the usual

Blue states MN, NM, VA, as well as the usual


Blue state Dem pick ups:
CA 5 + 1 leading
IL 2
ME 1
MN 2 minus 2 GOP pick ups
NJ 4
NM 1
NY 2 + 1 leading
VA 3
WA 1

Purple state Dem pick ups:
AZ 1
CO 1
FL 2
IA 2
MI 2
PA 4 minus 1 GOP pick up

Red state Dem pick ups:
GA 1
KS 1
OK 1
SC 1
TX 2
UT 1 ? Rep. leading

This quote is edited from my last post. California votes still coming in. Lots of late mail ballots dropped off at polling places on election day, plus conditional and provisional voters. It's like 2016, when more and more votes came in that raised Hillary's lead for days after the election. Another seat was called for Democrats today, CA 45- Katie Porter (Elizabeth Warren protege), and a lead changed from Rep to Dem in another, CA 39. That lead is increasing, and the contest will be called soon, if it hasn't been already. NJ 3 was called for a progressive Democrat today (Kim). Other states with uncalled races are holding steady, probably pending recounts. That includes Democratic leads in New York 22 and Utah 4. Small Republican leads remain in GA 7, and TX 23.

The Dem lead in NY has increased, but ballots are still being counter in Utah 4 and now Republican Mia Love is leading.

I see what happened in Maine now; they had ranked choice voting! Democrat won it.

From Daily Kos:

As promised, and allowed by the courts, Maine's secretary of state tabulated ranked-choice ballots in Maine today, and there is a clear winner: Democratic challenger Jared Golden.

The assistant Maine House Majority Leader just got a big promotion by the state's voters, defeating Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin in Maine's 2nd district. Golden got just over the 50 percent threshold, at 50.53 percent of votes to Poliquin's 49.47 percent. And this is nice:

The result would be a historic one: As it stands, Golden, a 36-year-old Democrat from Lewiston, is the first person to defeat an incumbent in the largely rural 2nd District's modern-era configuration as it stands after it went hard in 2016 for President Donald Trump, a Republican.
That should really make Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), up in 2020, sweat.

Golden won by 2,905 votes in the end. He's the 26th Democrat to defeat a Republican incumbent. Now there are just seven House races still undetermined.