11-25-2016, 11:13 PM
*** 26-Nov-16 World View -- Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converge on a major military confrontation in al-Bab
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converging on a major military confrontation in al-Bab
****
![[Image: g161125b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161125b.jpg)
Map showing forces converging on al-Bab in Syria (Yeni Safak)
In August, Turkey began "Operation Euphrates Shield," and became the
first Nato member to invade Syria since the beginning of the war that
began in 2011. Turkey has stated that there are two objectives -- to
fight the so-called Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh) and force them to move south, and to fight Kurdish
People’s Protection Units (YPG), and force them to move back east
across the Euphrates River.
The main ground force in Operation Euphrates Shield is the Free Syrian
Army (FSA), backed by Turkish supplies and air power. Turkey's next
two objectives are to recapture the city of al-Bab from ISIS, and to
recapture the city of Manbij from the YPG.
As FSA militias move south towards al-Bab, it seems that a major
confrontation is developing. YPG forces are also moving towards
al-Bab to capture al-Bab from ISIS.
If Turkey-backed FSA forces take control of al-Bab, then the FSA
forces will be in a position to help break the siege in eastern
Aleppo, a city that the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad want destroy,
killing over 250,000 people, mostly innocent women and children.
Al-Assad has received worldwide condemnation for regime actions in
Aleppo as war crimes and crimes against humanity, so al-Assad does not
want to be stopped by the Free Syrian Army.
At the same time, FSA forces plan to move east and recapture
Manbij from the Kurds.
Turkey's Retired Lt. Gen. Ismail Hakki Pekin summarized the plans for
the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK):
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Operation Euphrates Shield was necessary, especially
> for TSK-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters, to prevent the
> establishment of a corridor [by terrorist PYD] near Kobani and the
> Afrin region. However, the operation must expand further south
> toward Manbij. Foremost, the operation must continue toward al-Bab
> before it moves toward Manbij, in order to prevent the corridor
> from being established to the south."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Operation Euphrates Shield appears to have slowed down substantially
near the al-Bab region. Retired military officer and security
specialist Abdullah Agar said that it's supposed to slow down because
it's proceeding with caution:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It was already known that the operation would become
> more difficult as it deepened and moved farther south. Al-Bab is
> the major obstacle that we are facing today. ... [The PYD and its
> armed wing the People's Protection Units] YPG, the PKK, Syria's
> Assad regime as well as the Shiite militias have diverging plans
> regarding al-Bab. While the YPG-PKK hastens efforts to connect the
> Afrin region with the area west of the Euphrates, it also tries to
> seize regions that were cleared of Daesh. The[Syrian] regime is
> trying to further enhance its influence over Aleppo and
> surrounding region at the same time."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Daily Sabah (Ankara) and AP and Rudaw (Kurdish)
Related Articles
****
**** Syrian airstrike on Turkish forces threatens wider war
****
Air strikes killed four Turkish soldiers in the region around al-Bab
on Thursday.
Thursday was November 24, the one-year anniversary of the day when
Turkey's air force shot down a Russian jet along the Syria-Turkey
border. This caused a major break in relations between the two
countries, but there's been an uneasy reconciliation since Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologized.
Nonetheless, Erdogan suspected that Russia's president Vladimir Putin
had ordered Thursday's airstrike in retaliation for last year's
shootdown. Russia reassured Turkey that the airstrike was not carried
out by them, and later notified Turkish officials that the attack was
conducted by a Syrian air force Albatross plane.
The fact that a Syrian regime warplane attacked Turkish forces near
al-Bab indicates the potential explosiveness of the situation. Any
repeat of such an airstrike is almost certain to provoke Turkish
retaliation on Syrian targets. Turkey has already threatened to
retaliate for Thursday's strike, though the nature of that retaliation
has not been specified.
Erdogan and Putin had a phone discussion over the incident. Little is
known about what was said, except the usual vacuous statements issued
by both sides. Erdogan reportedly told Putin that Turkey respected
Syria's territorial integrity and that its military incursion showed
its determination to fight militant groups. Putin reportedly said
that the discussion on Syria was constructive and that both sides
agreed to continue active dialogue to coordinate efforts against
international terrorism. Blah, blah, blah. Undoubtedly, Turkey's
invasion of Syria presents problems for Russia, who is the main
sponsor of Bashar al-Assad.
According to Russian analyst Vladimir Sotnikov:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"What happened in northern Syria is highly dangerous,
> potentially for Russia too. President Erdogan is a violent and
> ambitious politician, sometimes acting on his emotions. If he
> decides that the strike on Turkish forces in Syria was not a
> mistake or a chance event, but a deliberate action by the Syrian
> command, he might take this as a challenge to himself. Then, as
> precedence dictates, it will be necessary to respond.
>
> Such a response [in case Erdogan decides to use air forces]
> threatens to drag Turkey into war with Russia over who controls
> Syrian airspace."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Some Russian analysts are speculating that Bashar al-Assad ordered the
airstrike on Turkish forces in order to provoke a war between Russia
and Turkey. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Hurriyet and Kommersant (Moscow)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, al-Bab, Manbij,
Operation Euphrates Shield,Kurds, People’s Protection Units, YPG,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin,
Ismail Hakki Pekin, Abdullah Agar, Vladimir Sotnikov
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converging on a major military confrontation in al-Bab
- Syrian airstrike on Turkish forces threatens wider war
****
**** Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converging on a major military confrontation in al-Bab
****
Map showing forces converging on al-Bab in Syria (Yeni Safak)
In August, Turkey began "Operation Euphrates Shield," and became the
first Nato member to invade Syria since the beginning of the war that
began in 2011. Turkey has stated that there are two objectives -- to
fight the so-called Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh) and force them to move south, and to fight Kurdish
People’s Protection Units (YPG), and force them to move back east
across the Euphrates River.
The main ground force in Operation Euphrates Shield is the Free Syrian
Army (FSA), backed by Turkish supplies and air power. Turkey's next
two objectives are to recapture the city of al-Bab from ISIS, and to
recapture the city of Manbij from the YPG.
As FSA militias move south towards al-Bab, it seems that a major
confrontation is developing. YPG forces are also moving towards
al-Bab to capture al-Bab from ISIS.
If Turkey-backed FSA forces take control of al-Bab, then the FSA
forces will be in a position to help break the siege in eastern
Aleppo, a city that the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad want destroy,
killing over 250,000 people, mostly innocent women and children.
Al-Assad has received worldwide condemnation for regime actions in
Aleppo as war crimes and crimes against humanity, so al-Assad does not
want to be stopped by the Free Syrian Army.
At the same time, FSA forces plan to move east and recapture
Manbij from the Kurds.
Turkey's Retired Lt. Gen. Ismail Hakki Pekin summarized the plans for
the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK):
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Operation Euphrates Shield was necessary, especially
> for TSK-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters, to prevent the
> establishment of a corridor [by terrorist PYD] near Kobani and the
> Afrin region. However, the operation must expand further south
> toward Manbij. Foremost, the operation must continue toward al-Bab
> before it moves toward Manbij, in order to prevent the corridor
> from being established to the south."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Operation Euphrates Shield appears to have slowed down substantially
near the al-Bab region. Retired military officer and security
specialist Abdullah Agar said that it's supposed to slow down because
it's proceeding with caution:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It was already known that the operation would become
> more difficult as it deepened and moved farther south. Al-Bab is
> the major obstacle that we are facing today. ... [The PYD and its
> armed wing the People's Protection Units] YPG, the PKK, Syria's
> Assad regime as well as the Shiite militias have diverging plans
> regarding al-Bab. While the YPG-PKK hastens efforts to connect the
> Afrin region with the area west of the Euphrates, it also tries to
> seize regions that were cleared of Daesh. The[Syrian] regime is
> trying to further enhance its influence over Aleppo and
> surrounding region at the same time."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Daily Sabah (Ankara) and AP and Rudaw (Kurdish)
Related Articles
- Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
- Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq (25-Oct-2016)
- Turkey views Iraq and Syria through the lens of World War I and the Ottoman Empire (20-Oct-2016)
****
**** Syrian airstrike on Turkish forces threatens wider war
****
Air strikes killed four Turkish soldiers in the region around al-Bab
on Thursday.
Thursday was November 24, the one-year anniversary of the day when
Turkey's air force shot down a Russian jet along the Syria-Turkey
border. This caused a major break in relations between the two
countries, but there's been an uneasy reconciliation since Turkey's
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologized.
Nonetheless, Erdogan suspected that Russia's president Vladimir Putin
had ordered Thursday's airstrike in retaliation for last year's
shootdown. Russia reassured Turkey that the airstrike was not carried
out by them, and later notified Turkish officials that the attack was
conducted by a Syrian air force Albatross plane.
The fact that a Syrian regime warplane attacked Turkish forces near
al-Bab indicates the potential explosiveness of the situation. Any
repeat of such an airstrike is almost certain to provoke Turkish
retaliation on Syrian targets. Turkey has already threatened to
retaliate for Thursday's strike, though the nature of that retaliation
has not been specified.
Erdogan and Putin had a phone discussion over the incident. Little is
known about what was said, except the usual vacuous statements issued
by both sides. Erdogan reportedly told Putin that Turkey respected
Syria's territorial integrity and that its military incursion showed
its determination to fight militant groups. Putin reportedly said
that the discussion on Syria was constructive and that both sides
agreed to continue active dialogue to coordinate efforts against
international terrorism. Blah, blah, blah. Undoubtedly, Turkey's
invasion of Syria presents problems for Russia, who is the main
sponsor of Bashar al-Assad.
According to Russian analyst Vladimir Sotnikov:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"What happened in northern Syria is highly dangerous,
> potentially for Russia too. President Erdogan is a violent and
> ambitious politician, sometimes acting on his emotions. If he
> decides that the strike on Turkish forces in Syria was not a
> mistake or a chance event, but a deliberate action by the Syrian
> command, he might take this as a challenge to himself. Then, as
> precedence dictates, it will be necessary to respond.
>
> Such a response [in case Erdogan decides to use air forces]
> threatens to drag Turkey into war with Russia over who controls
> Syrian airspace."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Some Russian analysts are speculating that Bashar al-Assad ordered the
airstrike on Turkish forces in order to provoke a war between Russia
and Turkey. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Hurriyet and Kommersant (Moscow)
Related Articles
- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
- Turkey's Erdogan and Russia's Putin sign TurkStream gas pipeline deal (11-Oct-2016)
- Reader comments and questions on Syria, Russia, and Russian trolls (08-Oct-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Syria, al-Bab, Manbij,
Operation Euphrates Shield,Kurds, People’s Protection Units, YPG,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin,
Ismail Hakki Pekin, Abdullah Agar, Vladimir Sotnikov
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
