11-30-2016, 10:45 PM
*** 1-Dec-16 World View -- Europeans wonder if Turkey will reopen the refugee floodgates
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Mediterranean migrant traffic to Italy and Greece continues, despite cold weather
****
![[Image: g160904b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160904b.jpg)
Rescuing an overcrowded migrant boat off the Libyan coast (Reuters)
About 171,000 migrants reached Italy after crossing the Mediterranean
Sea so far this year, a new record. The previous record was 170,100
for all of 2014. The number arriving in Greece so far this year
totals another 171,731, but this figure is well below the 2015 figure
of 883,393, thanks to the EU-Turkey refugee deal.
More than three times as many migrants reached Italy this November as
did so in the same month last year. On Monday alone, Italian and
international rescuers reportedly pulled 1,400 people from the water
to rescue them from drowning.
The EU-Turkey refugee deal has substantially reduced the number of
migrants traveling from Turkey across the Aegean Sea to Greece. Those
migrants are generally from war zones in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Most migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea to Europe are from
African countries, according to the International Organization for
Migration:
The process of Mediterranean migrant traffic has become an extremely
efficient and cynical assembly line. People-smugglers launch
overcrowded rubber boats from the Libyan coast, with absolutely no
pretense that the rubber boats will reach Europe. The migrants are
told to use their radios to call for help from European rescuers while
they are still close to the Libyan coast. There is a high risk that
the overcrowded rubber boats will sink or capsize before rescuers can
find them. There have been 4,655 cases of deaths of missing at sea
recorded in the Mediterranean so far this year, compared to 3,771
cases in the whole of 2015.
The cold weather is making the trip far more deadly. Nonetheless,
more migrants are making the trip because they want to cross before
winter, and because people-smugglers are telling migrants that the EU
is going to close the Mediterranean Sea route. BBC and International Organization For Migration and International Business Times
Related Articles
****
**** Europeans wonder if Turkey will reopen the refugee floodgates
****
The EU-Turkey refugee deal seems to be hanging by a thread. Last
week's vote by the EU parliament to recommend ending negotiations for
Turkey's membership in the EU has infuriated the Turks, especially
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said angrily, "Look, if you go
further, the border gates will be opened. You should know that."
In fact, there are reports from Greece's intelligence unit that
Erdogan has ordered that refugees be lined up along the Aegean Sea,
ready to cross to Greece. The report indicates that as many as 3,000
refugees would cross every day, which would amount to about one
million in a year.
Other reports indicate that some European nations are almost in a
state of panic, and are making preparations. Serbia, Bulgaria,
Macedonia, Croatia and Hungary are reportedly planning to build fences
and barriers that would effectively divide Europe in two, and seal off
most of the continent.
However, some analysts are doubting would ever launch this "nuclear
option." The threat of ending the EU-Turkey refugee deal is a huge
piece of leverage for Turkey in negotiations on any subject, and once
he abrogated the deal, he would lose his negotiating leverage and
invite retaliation.
In the past I've suggested my own possible scenario, which I've never
seen discussed in the media. Ending the EU-Turkey refugee deal isn't
a binary on or off decision. For example, Erdogan could move some of
his troops from the coast along the Aegean Sea to southeastern Turkey
to meet the threat from the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Protection from PKK would be perfect cover for a decision that would
permit a small to moderate increase in the refugee flow. This would
serve notice to the EU that more troops could be moved away at any
time, to increase the refugee flow some more. This would permit
Turkey to retain its negotiating leverage, although the fact that it
was cold-blooded extortion would still be perfectly obvious. Independent (London) and Pro Thema (Greece) (Trans) and Express (London) and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mediterranean Sea, Italy, Greece, Libya,
Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Eritrea, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Gambia,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Serbia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Croatia, Hungary
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Mediterranean migrant traffic to Italy and Greece continues, despite cold weather
- Europeans wonder if Turkey will reopen the refugee floodgates
****
**** Mediterranean migrant traffic to Italy and Greece continues, despite cold weather
****
Rescuing an overcrowded migrant boat off the Libyan coast (Reuters)
About 171,000 migrants reached Italy after crossing the Mediterranean
Sea so far this year, a new record. The previous record was 170,100
for all of 2014. The number arriving in Greece so far this year
totals another 171,731, but this figure is well below the 2015 figure
of 883,393, thanks to the EU-Turkey refugee deal.
More than three times as many migrants reached Italy this November as
did so in the same month last year. On Monday alone, Italian and
international rescuers reportedly pulled 1,400 people from the water
to rescue them from drowning.
The EU-Turkey refugee deal has substantially reduced the number of
migrants traveling from Turkey across the Aegean Sea to Greece. Those
migrants are generally from war zones in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Most migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea to Europe are from
African countries, according to the International Organization for
Migration:
- Nigeria: 35716
- Eritrea: 20000
- Guinea : 12352
- Ivory Coast: 11406
- Gambia : 11022
The process of Mediterranean migrant traffic has become an extremely
efficient and cynical assembly line. People-smugglers launch
overcrowded rubber boats from the Libyan coast, with absolutely no
pretense that the rubber boats will reach Europe. The migrants are
told to use their radios to call for help from European rescuers while
they are still close to the Libyan coast. There is a high risk that
the overcrowded rubber boats will sink or capsize before rescuers can
find them. There have been 4,655 cases of deaths of missing at sea
recorded in the Mediterranean so far this year, compared to 3,771
cases in the whole of 2015.
The cold weather is making the trip far more deadly. Nonetheless,
more migrants are making the trip because they want to cross before
winter, and because people-smugglers are telling migrants that the EU
is going to close the Mediterranean Sea route. BBC and International Organization For Migration and International Business Times
Related Articles
- Europeans expect hundreds of thousands of migrants from Libya (30-Mar-2016)
- EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
- Refugee crisis: Turkey ridicules Europe as Hungary closes Croatia border (17-Oct-2015)
****
**** Europeans wonder if Turkey will reopen the refugee floodgates
****
The EU-Turkey refugee deal seems to be hanging by a thread. Last
week's vote by the EU parliament to recommend ending negotiations for
Turkey's membership in the EU has infuriated the Turks, especially
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said angrily, "Look, if you go
further, the border gates will be opened. You should know that."
In fact, there are reports from Greece's intelligence unit that
Erdogan has ordered that refugees be lined up along the Aegean Sea,
ready to cross to Greece. The report indicates that as many as 3,000
refugees would cross every day, which would amount to about one
million in a year.
Other reports indicate that some European nations are almost in a
state of panic, and are making preparations. Serbia, Bulgaria,
Macedonia, Croatia and Hungary are reportedly planning to build fences
and barriers that would effectively divide Europe in two, and seal off
most of the continent.
However, some analysts are doubting would ever launch this "nuclear
option." The threat of ending the EU-Turkey refugee deal is a huge
piece of leverage for Turkey in negotiations on any subject, and once
he abrogated the deal, he would lose his negotiating leverage and
invite retaliation.
In the past I've suggested my own possible scenario, which I've never
seen discussed in the media. Ending the EU-Turkey refugee deal isn't
a binary on or off decision. For example, Erdogan could move some of
his troops from the coast along the Aegean Sea to southeastern Turkey
to meet the threat from the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Protection from PKK would be perfect cover for a decision that would
permit a small to moderate increase in the refugee flow. This would
serve notice to the EU that more troops could be moved away at any
time, to increase the refugee flow some more. This would permit
Turkey to retain its negotiating leverage, although the fact that it
was cold-blooded extortion would still be perfectly obvious. Independent (London) and Pro Thema (Greece) (Trans) and Express (London) and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Related Articles
- Turkey furious at EU parliament's vote to end accession talks (25-Nov-2016)
- EU's expected scathing report on Turkey may scuttle refugee deal (09-Nov-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mediterranean Sea, Italy, Greece, Libya,
Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Eritrea, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Gambia,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Serbia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Croatia, Hungary
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
