02-07-2017, 01:12 AM
*** 7-Feb-17 World View -- Tensions rise between China and Trump administration
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China sails warships near Japan's Senkaku Islands
****
![[Image: g170206b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170206b.jpg)
Senkaku Islands
In a show of military force, China sailed three warships past the
Senkaku Islands on Monday, just two days after Secretary of Defense
Jim Mattis visited Japan and reaffirmed the US commitment to defend
the islands if attacked by China.
Although the Senkaku Islands are just a collection of large, barren
rocks, it's believed that they lie in a region with vast oil and gas
reserves. Japan says that the islands have been their sovereign
territory since the 1800s. China says that they've been their
sovereign territory since "ancient times," and that their claims are
"indisputable," but China says exactly the same things about any other
country's territory that it wants to confiscate. China's claims in
the South China Sea are not only "disputable," they're also illegal
according to a ruling by a United Nations court in the Hague. Some of
China's "ironclad proof" was investigated by the BBC and found to be a
hoax.
The United States has taken no position on whether Japan or China own
the Senkaku Islands, but have agreed that Japan is currently
administering the islands. During the early part of the
administration of President Barack Obama, there was some question
whether Obama would agree to defend the islands under the US-Japan
Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security that was signed in 1960.
The issue was cleared up in April 2014 during a visit by Obama to
Japan, he announced, "The policy of the United States is clear -- the
Senkaku Islands are administered by Japan and therefore fall within
the scope of Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation
and Security. And we oppose any unilateral attempts to undermine
Japan’s administration of these islands."
The administration of President Donald Trump once again reaffirmed the
US defense of the Senkaku Islands last week when ]US Defense Secretary
James Mattis visited Japan and said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I made clear that our long-standing policy on the
> Senkaku Islands stands -- the US will continue to recognize
> Japanese administration of the islands and as such Article 5 of
> the US-Japan Security Treaty applies."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
China's Foreign Ministry responded quickly:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Diaoyu [Senkaku] and its affiliated islands have been
> Chinese territory since ancient times. These are historical facts
> that cannot be changed. The so-called US-Japan security treaty was
> a product of the Cold War, and it should not harm China's
> territorial sovereignty and legitimate rights
>
> We urge the US side to adopt a responsible attitude and stop
> making wrong remarks on the issue of the sovereignty of Diaoyu
> Islands."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
It's getting very tiresome to hear that China always describe their
empty claims as indisputable facts, but the real concerns is that the
Chinese are becoming so angry and frustrated that they'll take real
military action. Sending three warships near the islands, as they did
on Monday, is harmless as far as it goes, but with nationalistic
feelings high in both China and Japan, a miscalculation leading to a
military clash is a real possibility. CNN and Fox News
Related Articles
****
**** Tensions rise between China and Trump administration
****
US-China tensions have been growing steadily for years, especially as
China has built illegal artificial islands and illegal military bases
in the South China Sea. But these tensions seem to have taken a major
spurt since Donald Trump became president, because of Trump's
willingness to go much farther than Obama in challenging "politically
correct" norms.
Even before taking office, Trump accepted a phone call from Taiwan's
president Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai has refused to endorse the "one-China
policy" that precludes Taiwan's independence, and Trump has said that
the one-China policy is open for negotiation. Younger generations in
Taiwan increasingly favor independence, and it's clear to China that
time is not on their side.
Early last month, during his confirmation hearing for Secretary of
State, Rex Tillerson said that China's artificial islands and military
bases in the South China Sea were an "illegal" activity and added:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We're going to have to send China a clear signal that
> first, the island-building stops and second, your access to those
> islands also is not going to be allowed."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
An editorial in Chinese state media said, "Unless Washington plans to
wage a large-scale war in the South China Sea, any other approaches to
prevent Chinese access to the islands will be foolish."
This talk of war has led to some media questions about how ready China
is for war.
China has only one aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, but it's much
smaller than US aircraft carriers, having been purchased from the
Soviet Union in 1988.
The Liaoning can carry up to 24 fighter jets and about 12 helicopters,
while U.S. Navy’s current Nimitz-class warships, such as the USS
Ronald Reagan, stationed in Japan, can handle more than 60 aircraft.
An even larger carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, will be put into service
in 2017.
That would indicate that China is far behind the United States in sea
power, but the first of two new all-Chinese aircraft carriers, the
Shandong-1, is expected to begin sea trials this year.
People frequently point out to me that China would not attack the
United States because the US has a superior military. From the point
of view of Generational Dynamics, that makes sense for most wars, but
not for generational crisis wars. When America's South attacked Fort
Sumter, launching the American Civil War, it was predictable that the
North would win because it was three times as big, but the South
attacked anyway. When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, it was predictable
that America would win because it was five times as big, but Japan
attacked anyway.
As a population, China is in a highly emotional state right now.
They've become extremely nationalistic. Their younger generations are
looking for action, believing that China is strong enough to beat the
US. On the US side, most people believe that President Trump means
business in a way that President Obama never did, and that Trump may
well take some military action to fulfill Rex Tillerson's threat to
prevent China from accessing its artificial islands in the South China
Sea.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the US and China are going to war.
It's impossible to predict what will trigger that war, or when it will
begin. But whether it begins next month, next year, or thereafter, it
will be part of the greatest world war in history. VOA and The Diplomat and The Statesman
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Senkaku Islands, China,
U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security,
Jim Mattis, Rex Tillerson, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
Liaoning, Shandong-1, USS Ronald Reagan, USS Gerald Ford
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China sails warships near Japan's Senkaku Islands
- Tensions rise between China and Trump administration
****
**** China sails warships near Japan's Senkaku Islands
****
Senkaku Islands
In a show of military force, China sailed three warships past the
Senkaku Islands on Monday, just two days after Secretary of Defense
Jim Mattis visited Japan and reaffirmed the US commitment to defend
the islands if attacked by China.
Although the Senkaku Islands are just a collection of large, barren
rocks, it's believed that they lie in a region with vast oil and gas
reserves. Japan says that the islands have been their sovereign
territory since the 1800s. China says that they've been their
sovereign territory since "ancient times," and that their claims are
"indisputable," but China says exactly the same things about any other
country's territory that it wants to confiscate. China's claims in
the South China Sea are not only "disputable," they're also illegal
according to a ruling by a United Nations court in the Hague. Some of
China's "ironclad proof" was investigated by the BBC and found to be a
hoax.
The United States has taken no position on whether Japan or China own
the Senkaku Islands, but have agreed that Japan is currently
administering the islands. During the early part of the
administration of President Barack Obama, there was some question
whether Obama would agree to defend the islands under the US-Japan
Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security that was signed in 1960.
The issue was cleared up in April 2014 during a visit by Obama to
Japan, he announced, "The policy of the United States is clear -- the
Senkaku Islands are administered by Japan and therefore fall within
the scope of Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation
and Security. And we oppose any unilateral attempts to undermine
Japan’s administration of these islands."
The administration of President Donald Trump once again reaffirmed the
US defense of the Senkaku Islands last week when ]US Defense Secretary
James Mattis visited Japan and said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I made clear that our long-standing policy on the
> Senkaku Islands stands -- the US will continue to recognize
> Japanese administration of the islands and as such Article 5 of
> the US-Japan Security Treaty applies."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
China's Foreign Ministry responded quickly:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Diaoyu [Senkaku] and its affiliated islands have been
> Chinese territory since ancient times. These are historical facts
> that cannot be changed. The so-called US-Japan security treaty was
> a product of the Cold War, and it should not harm China's
> territorial sovereignty and legitimate rights
>
> We urge the US side to adopt a responsible attitude and stop
> making wrong remarks on the issue of the sovereignty of Diaoyu
> Islands."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
It's getting very tiresome to hear that China always describe their
empty claims as indisputable facts, but the real concerns is that the
Chinese are becoming so angry and frustrated that they'll take real
military action. Sending three warships near the islands, as they did
on Monday, is harmless as far as it goes, but with nationalistic
feelings high in both China and Japan, a miscalculation leading to a
military clash is a real possibility. CNN and Fox News
Related Articles
- China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax (22-Jun-2016)
- Obama says U.S. will defend Japan over Senkaku Islands (24-Apr-2014)
- U.S. fails to reaffirm its mutual defense treaty with Japan (06-Apr-2014)
****
**** Tensions rise between China and Trump administration
****
US-China tensions have been growing steadily for years, especially as
China has built illegal artificial islands and illegal military bases
in the South China Sea. But these tensions seem to have taken a major
spurt since Donald Trump became president, because of Trump's
willingness to go much farther than Obama in challenging "politically
correct" norms.
Even before taking office, Trump accepted a phone call from Taiwan's
president Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai has refused to endorse the "one-China
policy" that precludes Taiwan's independence, and Trump has said that
the one-China policy is open for negotiation. Younger generations in
Taiwan increasingly favor independence, and it's clear to China that
time is not on their side.
Early last month, during his confirmation hearing for Secretary of
State, Rex Tillerson said that China's artificial islands and military
bases in the South China Sea were an "illegal" activity and added:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We're going to have to send China a clear signal that
> first, the island-building stops and second, your access to those
> islands also is not going to be allowed."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
An editorial in Chinese state media said, "Unless Washington plans to
wage a large-scale war in the South China Sea, any other approaches to
prevent Chinese access to the islands will be foolish."
This talk of war has led to some media questions about how ready China
is for war.
China has only one aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, but it's much
smaller than US aircraft carriers, having been purchased from the
Soviet Union in 1988.
The Liaoning can carry up to 24 fighter jets and about 12 helicopters,
while U.S. Navy’s current Nimitz-class warships, such as the USS
Ronald Reagan, stationed in Japan, can handle more than 60 aircraft.
An even larger carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, will be put into service
in 2017.
That would indicate that China is far behind the United States in sea
power, but the first of two new all-Chinese aircraft carriers, the
Shandong-1, is expected to begin sea trials this year.
People frequently point out to me that China would not attack the
United States because the US has a superior military. From the point
of view of Generational Dynamics, that makes sense for most wars, but
not for generational crisis wars. When America's South attacked Fort
Sumter, launching the American Civil War, it was predictable that the
North would win because it was three times as big, but the South
attacked anyway. When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, it was predictable
that America would win because it was five times as big, but Japan
attacked anyway.
As a population, China is in a highly emotional state right now.
They've become extremely nationalistic. Their younger generations are
looking for action, believing that China is strong enough to beat the
US. On the US side, most people believe that President Trump means
business in a way that President Obama never did, and that Trump may
well take some military action to fulfill Rex Tillerson's threat to
prevent China from accessing its artificial islands in the South China
Sea.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the US and China are going to war.
It's impossible to predict what will trigger that war, or when it will
begin. But whether it begins next month, next year, or thereafter, it
will be part of the greatest world war in history. VOA and The Diplomat and The Statesman
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Senkaku Islands, China,
U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security,
Jim Mattis, Rex Tillerson, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
Liaoning, Shandong-1, USS Ronald Reagan, USS Gerald Ford
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
