03-17-2017, 08:40 PM
*** 18-Mar-17 World View -- Taiwan says it must defend against increasingly threatening China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Taiwan says it must defend against increasingly threatening China
****
![[Image: g170317b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170317b.jpg)
Taiwanese soldiers stand next to home-made Tien Chien surface-to-air missiles during an annual drill in Tainan, January 17, 2017. (AFP)
A major Taiwan government defense report, the "2017 Quadrennial
Defense Review" (QDR), says that China's accelerated military
development and recent activity by its military aircraft and ships
around Taiwan pose an increased threat to the self-ruled island. This
is the third QDR published by Taiwan, with the first two published in
2009 and 2013, respectively.
According to the 2017 QDR:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The recent activity of Chinese jets and ships around
> Taiwan shows the continued rise in [China’s] military threat
> capabilities. In addition to posing a military threat to our
> country, it also has a negative impact on regional stability. ...
>
> The country’s military development and Taiwan’s freedom and
> prosperity are the same living body. ...
>
> With the rapid growth of China’s defense budget, the People’s
> Liberation Army has made considerable progress to modernize and
> reform its military. It has the ability to blockade Taiwan,
> launch combined operations, and seize and hold Taiwan’s outlying
> islands. ...
>
> [If China invades, Taiwan will] resist enemy troops at their home
> bases, strike them at sea, destroy them as they approach Taiwan’s
> coastlines and annihilate them on the beaches."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Taiwan plans to acquire stealth jet fighters as a deterrent. However,
the report acknowledges that Taiwan cannot compete with China's army,
in view of its explosive growth in power and equipment, and so Taiwan
must look for asymmetric ways to provide a defense, using a
"multi-deterrence" strategy that presents the enemy with multiple
dilemmas. According to the report, Taiwan will boost its cyberwarfare
capabilities, ensure the security of its command-control and
information infrastructure, and strengthen joint counterattack
readiness. Reuters
and Taipei Times and Straits Times (Singapore) and Russia Today
****
**** China responds harshly to Taiwan's defense report
****
China's premier Li Keqiang said that China was resolutely opposed to
Taiwan's independence:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"No matter how the situation on the island may evolve,
> the fraternal bond between the two sides cannot be severed and
> will not be able to change history or the fact that both sides
> belong to one and the same China."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
A highly nationalistic editorial appeared in China's state-run Global
Times explaining that Taiwan's QDR has no military value, because
China's military is so strong that even with support of the United
States, Taiwan's military have no will to fight:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The "multi-deterrence" strategy aims to force the
> enemy into multi-dilemmas. As ambitious as it is, it has almost no
> actual military value.
>
> With the development of military strength on the Chinese mainland,
> the will of Taiwan's military to confront their mainland
> counterparts has almost collapsed. No soldiers believe Taiwan
> forces are capable to defend the island if the People's Liberation
> Army (PLA) launches a comprehensive offensive against Taiwan.
>
> The new QDR claims that the PLA is capable of seizing Taiwan's
> offshore islands. But isn't it an easy thing for the PLA to seize
> the whole island of Taiwan?
>
> The Taiwan military cannot match the present-day PLA. The
> mainland's military budget is more than 10 times that of Taiwan,
> and the PLA has superior strategic tools and systemic combat
> capabilities that their Taiwan counterparts don't have. ...
>
> Taiwan has taken deterring the mainland as a key strategy, and
> constantly changed its deterrence tactics. But there is no need
> for the island to deter the mainland, as the mainland cherishes
> peace and won't resort to force unless it's absolutely
> necessary. If Taiwan is controlled by radial pro-independence
> forces, Taiwan's military, even with the help of the main US
> military forces, will not be able to deter the mainland.
>
> Therefore, the most important thing for Taiwan is not to provoke
> the one-China policy. This is the correct political way to protect
> the island's security."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The last paragraph refers to China's "anti-secession law," which China
passed in 2005. The law says that China will invade Taiwan even if
there's no more than talk of independence. Last year's election of
Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen, of the Democratic Progressive Party
that has historically favored independence, and then last year's phone
call between Tsai and candidate Donald Trump have enormously increased
tensions. Arguably, the necessary conditions to trigger the
anti-secession law have already occurred.
Nonetheless, the above editorial is typical of the really stupid
things that people say during a generational Crisis era. China has
been illegally annexing other countries' territories in the South
China Sea, the kind of thing that Adolf Hitler did, and nobody is
confronting China. In 1988, China easily won a naval war with Vietnam
in the Spratly Islands. The Chinese people no longer have any memory
of being defeated by an enemy, as they were by the Japanese in World
War II until America saved them. So with decades of mostly military
success, with a belief that other countries do not have the will to
fight, and with an explosively growing military capability, many in
China believe that China's military can do anything it wants with
impunity. This is the kind of mistake that leads to generational
crisis wars, and it's a historic mistake by the Chinese that will lead
to disaster for China and disaster for everyone else as well.
Global Times
Related Articles
****
**** Taiwan's government responds to China's threats
****
Taiwan's government responded to China's threats, but the response was
just as delusional. Taiwan's Lt. Gen. Chiang Chen-chung noted that
the Chinese army base closet to Taiwan under China's Eastern Theater
Command is only 250 kilometers away from the coastline of Taiwan, with
the most distant 1,380 km away from Taiwan. Chiang said that China's
military had the ability to strike China's army bases with missiles.
The implication was that China wouldn't attack Taiwan, because that
would risk having their bases attacked.
Taiwan's former deputy defense minister Lin Chong-pin said that it was
pointless to try to compete with China's military, and so the military
should focus on urban guerilla warfare and adopt a "war of paralysis"
against the Chinese military. "It will be too expensive, too messy,
and any bloodshed would do great damage to China's claim of peaceful
reunification... that would be a very effective deterrent."
So we have two delusional populations headed for war with each other.
That's how history's greatest catastrophes begin. China Post (Taiwan) and Taipei Times and Straits Times (Singapore)
Related Articles
****
**** China begins construction on Philippines' Scarborough Shoal
****
A Chinese Communist Party official is being quoted by Chinese media as
saying that China will begin building permanent structures in the
Scarborough Shoal and other South China Sea islands, and that this
work will be one of the government's top priorities in 2017.
Last year, the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration
handed China a humiliating defeat by declaring its activities
in the South China Sea to be illegal. Nonetheless,
China has continued annexing other countries' regions and building
illegal artificial islands and military bases.
Last year, President Barack Obama warned China's President Xi Jinping
last year against building an artificial island at Scarborough Shoal.
A Chinese military base on Scarborough Shoal would put Chinese fighter
jets and missiles within easy striking distance of US forces that are
stationed in the Philippines, as well as the Philippines' own forces.
The shoal also commands the northeast exit of the sea, so a Chinese
military outpost there could stop other countries' navies from
traveling through the South China Sea.
Well, to nobody's real surprise, China is now preparing to
build an "environment monitoring station" on Scarborough Shoal.
And nobody really believes that it's purpose is just to monitor
the environment.
During his Senate confirmation hearing for secretary of state, Rex
Tillerson said that China's access to its artificial islands should
not be allowed.
So now, as continues to militarize the South China Sea in preparation
for war, we'll have to see whether the United States follows through
on its promise to block China's access to Scarborough Shoal and its
artificial islands, which will lead to a world war, or whether the
United States will just stand by and let China continue to militarize
the South China Sea with impunity, which will also lead to a world
war. That's a variation of what's known as "Hobson's Choice."
AP
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, China, Li Keqiang,
Quadrennial Defence Review, QDR,
Tsai Ing-wen, Lin Chong-pin, Chiang Chen-chung,
Vietnam, South China Sea, Spratly Islands,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Philippines, Scarborough Shoal, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
Rex Tillerson
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Taiwan says it must defend against increasingly threatening China
- China responds harshly to Taiwan's defense report
- Taiwan's government responds to China's threats
- China begins construction on Philippines' Scarborough Shoal
****
**** Taiwan says it must defend against increasingly threatening China
****
Taiwanese soldiers stand next to home-made Tien Chien surface-to-air missiles during an annual drill in Tainan, January 17, 2017. (AFP)
A major Taiwan government defense report, the "2017 Quadrennial
Defense Review" (QDR), says that China's accelerated military
development and recent activity by its military aircraft and ships
around Taiwan pose an increased threat to the self-ruled island. This
is the third QDR published by Taiwan, with the first two published in
2009 and 2013, respectively.
According to the 2017 QDR:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The recent activity of Chinese jets and ships around
> Taiwan shows the continued rise in [China’s] military threat
> capabilities. In addition to posing a military threat to our
> country, it also has a negative impact on regional stability. ...
>
> The country’s military development and Taiwan’s freedom and
> prosperity are the same living body. ...
>
> With the rapid growth of China’s defense budget, the People’s
> Liberation Army has made considerable progress to modernize and
> reform its military. It has the ability to blockade Taiwan,
> launch combined operations, and seize and hold Taiwan’s outlying
> islands. ...
>
> [If China invades, Taiwan will] resist enemy troops at their home
> bases, strike them at sea, destroy them as they approach Taiwan’s
> coastlines and annihilate them on the beaches."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Taiwan plans to acquire stealth jet fighters as a deterrent. However,
the report acknowledges that Taiwan cannot compete with China's army,
in view of its explosive growth in power and equipment, and so Taiwan
must look for asymmetric ways to provide a defense, using a
"multi-deterrence" strategy that presents the enemy with multiple
dilemmas. According to the report, Taiwan will boost its cyberwarfare
capabilities, ensure the security of its command-control and
information infrastructure, and strengthen joint counterattack
readiness. Reuters
and Taipei Times and Straits Times (Singapore) and Russia Today
****
**** China responds harshly to Taiwan's defense report
****
China's premier Li Keqiang said that China was resolutely opposed to
Taiwan's independence:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"No matter how the situation on the island may evolve,
> the fraternal bond between the two sides cannot be severed and
> will not be able to change history or the fact that both sides
> belong to one and the same China."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
A highly nationalistic editorial appeared in China's state-run Global
Times explaining that Taiwan's QDR has no military value, because
China's military is so strong that even with support of the United
States, Taiwan's military have no will to fight:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The "multi-deterrence" strategy aims to force the
> enemy into multi-dilemmas. As ambitious as it is, it has almost no
> actual military value.
>
> With the development of military strength on the Chinese mainland,
> the will of Taiwan's military to confront their mainland
> counterparts has almost collapsed. No soldiers believe Taiwan
> forces are capable to defend the island if the People's Liberation
> Army (PLA) launches a comprehensive offensive against Taiwan.
>
> The new QDR claims that the PLA is capable of seizing Taiwan's
> offshore islands. But isn't it an easy thing for the PLA to seize
> the whole island of Taiwan?
>
> The Taiwan military cannot match the present-day PLA. The
> mainland's military budget is more than 10 times that of Taiwan,
> and the PLA has superior strategic tools and systemic combat
> capabilities that their Taiwan counterparts don't have. ...
>
> Taiwan has taken deterring the mainland as a key strategy, and
> constantly changed its deterrence tactics. But there is no need
> for the island to deter the mainland, as the mainland cherishes
> peace and won't resort to force unless it's absolutely
> necessary. If Taiwan is controlled by radial pro-independence
> forces, Taiwan's military, even with the help of the main US
> military forces, will not be able to deter the mainland.
>
> Therefore, the most important thing for Taiwan is not to provoke
> the one-China policy. This is the correct political way to protect
> the island's security."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The last paragraph refers to China's "anti-secession law," which China
passed in 2005. The law says that China will invade Taiwan even if
there's no more than talk of independence. Last year's election of
Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen, of the Democratic Progressive Party
that has historically favored independence, and then last year's phone
call between Tsai and candidate Donald Trump have enormously increased
tensions. Arguably, the necessary conditions to trigger the
anti-secession law have already occurred.
Nonetheless, the above editorial is typical of the really stupid
things that people say during a generational Crisis era. China has
been illegally annexing other countries' territories in the South
China Sea, the kind of thing that Adolf Hitler did, and nobody is
confronting China. In 1988, China easily won a naval war with Vietnam
in the Spratly Islands. The Chinese people no longer have any memory
of being defeated by an enemy, as they were by the Japanese in World
War II until America saved them. So with decades of mostly military
success, with a belief that other countries do not have the will to
fight, and with an explosively growing military capability, many in
China believe that China's military can do anything it wants with
impunity. This is the kind of mistake that leads to generational
crisis wars, and it's a historic mistake by the Chinese that will lead
to disaster for China and disaster for everyone else as well.
Global Times
Related Articles
- China and Taiwan: Understanding two different war paradigms (23-Apr-2008)
- No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen (05-Dec-2016)
****
**** Taiwan's government responds to China's threats
****
Taiwan's government responded to China's threats, but the response was
just as delusional. Taiwan's Lt. Gen. Chiang Chen-chung noted that
the Chinese army base closet to Taiwan under China's Eastern Theater
Command is only 250 kilometers away from the coastline of Taiwan, with
the most distant 1,380 km away from Taiwan. Chiang said that China's
military had the ability to strike China's army bases with missiles.
The implication was that China wouldn't attack Taiwan, because that
would risk having their bases attacked.
Taiwan's former deputy defense minister Lin Chong-pin said that it was
pointless to try to compete with China's military, and so the military
should focus on urban guerilla warfare and adopt a "war of paralysis"
against the Chinese military. "It will be too expensive, too messy,
and any bloodshed would do great damage to China's claim of peaceful
reunification... that would be a very effective deterrent."
So we have two delusional populations headed for war with each other.
That's how history's greatest catastrophes begin. China Post (Taiwan) and Taipei Times and Straits Times (Singapore)
Related Articles
- China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China (26-May-2016)
- Taiwan's president responds to military threats from China (01-Jan-2017)
- China's 'Anti-secession law' provokes massive Taiwan riots (27-Mar-2005)
****
**** China begins construction on Philippines' Scarborough Shoal
****
A Chinese Communist Party official is being quoted by Chinese media as
saying that China will begin building permanent structures in the
Scarborough Shoal and other South China Sea islands, and that this
work will be one of the government's top priorities in 2017.
Last year, the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration
handed China a humiliating defeat by declaring its activities
in the South China Sea to be illegal. Nonetheless,
China has continued annexing other countries' regions and building
illegal artificial islands and military bases.
Last year, President Barack Obama warned China's President Xi Jinping
last year against building an artificial island at Scarborough Shoal.
A Chinese military base on Scarborough Shoal would put Chinese fighter
jets and missiles within easy striking distance of US forces that are
stationed in the Philippines, as well as the Philippines' own forces.
The shoal also commands the northeast exit of the sea, so a Chinese
military outpost there could stop other countries' navies from
traveling through the South China Sea.
Well, to nobody's real surprise, China is now preparing to
build an "environment monitoring station" on Scarborough Shoal.
And nobody really believes that it's purpose is just to monitor
the environment.
During his Senate confirmation hearing for secretary of state, Rex
Tillerson said that China's access to its artificial islands should
not be allowed.
So now, as continues to militarize the South China Sea in preparation
for war, we'll have to see whether the United States follows through
on its promise to block China's access to Scarborough Shoal and its
artificial islands, which will lead to a world war, or whether the
United States will just stand by and let China continue to militarize
the South China Sea with impunity, which will also lead to a world
war. That's a variation of what's known as "Hobson's Choice."
AP
Related Articles
- China-Philippines détente unravels over Scarborough Shoal (19-Feb-2017)
- China preparing to install long-range missiles in South China Sea (23-Feb-2017)
- US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats (31-Jan-2017)
- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, China, Li Keqiang,
Quadrennial Defence Review, QDR,
Tsai Ing-wen, Lin Chong-pin, Chiang Chen-chung,
Vietnam, South China Sea, Spratly Islands,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Philippines, Scarborough Shoal, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
Rex Tillerson
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
