05-23-2017, 10:50 PM
*** 24-May-17 World View -- Russian obstructionism blocks agreement on splitting up the Caspian Sea
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russian obstructionism blocks agreement on splitting up the Caspian Sea
****
![[Image: g170523b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170523b.jpg)
Map of Caspian Sea
Last week, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said that
the five littoral states bordering the Caspian Sea should be able to
reach an agreement this year on the legal status of the Caspian Sea --
specifically, dividing up the seabed among the five littoral states.
According to Karasin:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We believe that this [cooperation with the Caspian
> Sea bordering countries] is one of the most important issues for
> Russia now, because the Caspian Sea should be an example of
> cooperation rather than confrontation. We are well aware that the
> situation in the world is unstable, there is some uncertainty. The
> Caspian Sea should be a positive example. There are all necessary
> conditions for that. ...
>
> We are now working to formalize an agreement on the Convention on
> the legal status of the Caspian Sea. We hope that this agreement
> is within arm’s reach. ...
>
> In a word, one can be optimistic and say that we are on the right
> track."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
History shows that none of this is likely to be true. That's not
surprising, since we knows from recent experiences with listening to
Russia about invading Ukraine, invading and annexing Crimea, Syria,
al-Assad's use of Sarin gas, the Russians' shooting down of the
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38
missile, and so forth, that if Russians ever tell the truth, then it's
by accident.
The five littoral states of the Caspian Sea have for decades been
unable to reach an agreement on dividing the Caspian Sea among them.
They agree that the entire surface of the sea should be open to all
for commercial shipping and for fishing. The disagreements are over
the seabed, and particularly control of the vast energy projects built
on the seabed.
Prior to 1991, there were only two littoral states -- the Soviet Union
and Iran, and the Soviets used their vastly superior and military and
economic power to gain the advantage in the Caspian Sea.
When the Soviet Union disintegrated, suddenly there were five littoral
states. During the 1990s, the chaos in Russia permitted Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan to begin independent oil and gas
development projects. By the end of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin was
taking charge, and every form of obstruction was used.
Russia's main number one objective is to prevent gas from reaching
Europe, except Russia's gas, delivered by Russia's state-owned
Gazprom. That means no Middle Eastern or Central Asian gas reaching
Europe. It also means no drilling in the Caspian Sea, and it also
means no pipelines crossing the Caspian Sea.
Russia has used a variety of heavy-handed methods to reach its
objective. By using its superior economic and military power, Russia
was able to force Iran and Armenia to sharply limit pipeline
capacities through their countries. In 2003, Gazprom attempted to
gain control of Georgia's network of high pressure gas transmission
lines, thus blocking any Azerbaijan gas from traveling through
Georgia, though the attempt was thwarted by financial aid from US
Agency for International Development. Tass (Moscow) and Jamestown and Atlantic Council
****
**** New 'facts on the ground' may force Russia to change its mind
****
In the Caspian Sea, Russia's major weapon was to stir disagreements
among the other four littoral states with regard to control of the
seabed.
International laws provide for various methods for splitting up
ownership of the seabed. According to one method, the size of the
region that each country gets depends on the length of the coastline
bordering the sea. Under this method Azerbaijan, Russia and
Kazakhstan would get the largest shares of the seabed, and so these
countries favor it.
According to a second set of rules, there are five littoral states,
and so the seabed would be split up equally among them, giving them
each 20% of the seabed. Iran and Turkmenistan favor this set of
rules, because they have the shortest shorelines.
At numerous summit meetings, the Russians have succeeding in provoking
disagreements among the countries, with the result that no agreement
has been reached in the 26 years since the Soviet Union disintegrated.
Since there's no agreement on who owns what, it's been difficult for
any country to develop energy projects, which is Russia's objective.
However, Russia's heavy-handed tactics began to backfire. Russia’s
four-day interruption of gas supplies to Ukraine in January 2006
caused a surge in Europe’s political resolve to diversify its natural
gas supplies and breathed new life into the still fledgling pipeline
projects vying to bring Caspian gas to Europe. Russian gas supplies
to Central and Southeast Europe were disrupted again from January 6 to
20 in 2009. This longer cutoff coincided with a period of cold weather
throughout the region.
This has led to "facts on the ground" that Russia is forced to
consider. Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR has started drilling a
new well. Norwegian companies have expressed an interest in working
with Iran to drill and explore oil fields in the Caspian Sea. And
Mideast countries are beginning to work with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan
and Turkmenistan on oil and gas projects in the Caspian Sea. All of
these energy projects specifically exclude Russia.
For 25 years, Russia has exploited political differences among the
other countries to block many pipeline projects, but at the same time,
that deadlock has led to expanded contacts between other pairs of
littoral states and increased shipping between and among them—again to
the exclusion of the Russia.
An even more ominous development for Russia is that since the start of
2017, the amount of cargo passing through Russian ports on the Caspian
Sea has fallen, compared to last year, by 48.4%. This figure is
striking given that Russian ports elsewhere have seen an 11% increase
in traffic over the same period, while the ports of other Caspian
littoral states have also grown busier. Such trends are worrisome to
Moscow because the decline in traffic at Russia’s Caspian ports is
accelerating and putting the country’s regional geopolitical strategy
at risk.
At any rate, Russia's deputy foreign minister said that "the Caspian
Sea should be an example of cooperation rather than confrontation,"
and that a legal status agreement should be concluded by the end of
the year. And yet, no date has been set for a signing of the legal
status agreement, and the setting of such a date is nowhere in sight.
Jamestown (George Goble) and Trend (Azerbaijan)
and Mehr News (Iran)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Grigory Karasin, Caspian Sea,
Soviet Union, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan,
Gazprom, US Agency for International Development,
SOCAR, Norway
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russian obstructionism blocks agreement on splitting up the Caspian Sea
- New 'facts on the ground' may force Russia to change its mind
****
**** Russian obstructionism blocks agreement on splitting up the Caspian Sea
****
Map of Caspian Sea
Last week, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said that
the five littoral states bordering the Caspian Sea should be able to
reach an agreement this year on the legal status of the Caspian Sea --
specifically, dividing up the seabed among the five littoral states.
According to Karasin:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We believe that this [cooperation with the Caspian
> Sea bordering countries] is one of the most important issues for
> Russia now, because the Caspian Sea should be an example of
> cooperation rather than confrontation. We are well aware that the
> situation in the world is unstable, there is some uncertainty. The
> Caspian Sea should be a positive example. There are all necessary
> conditions for that. ...
>
> We are now working to formalize an agreement on the Convention on
> the legal status of the Caspian Sea. We hope that this agreement
> is within arm’s reach. ...
>
> In a word, one can be optimistic and say that we are on the right
> track."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
History shows that none of this is likely to be true. That's not
surprising, since we knows from recent experiences with listening to
Russia about invading Ukraine, invading and annexing Crimea, Syria,
al-Assad's use of Sarin gas, the Russians' shooting down of the
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38
missile, and so forth, that if Russians ever tell the truth, then it's
by accident.
The five littoral states of the Caspian Sea have for decades been
unable to reach an agreement on dividing the Caspian Sea among them.
They agree that the entire surface of the sea should be open to all
for commercial shipping and for fishing. The disagreements are over
the seabed, and particularly control of the vast energy projects built
on the seabed.
Prior to 1991, there were only two littoral states -- the Soviet Union
and Iran, and the Soviets used their vastly superior and military and
economic power to gain the advantage in the Caspian Sea.
When the Soviet Union disintegrated, suddenly there were five littoral
states. During the 1990s, the chaos in Russia permitted Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan to begin independent oil and gas
development projects. By the end of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin was
taking charge, and every form of obstruction was used.
Russia's main number one objective is to prevent gas from reaching
Europe, except Russia's gas, delivered by Russia's state-owned
Gazprom. That means no Middle Eastern or Central Asian gas reaching
Europe. It also means no drilling in the Caspian Sea, and it also
means no pipelines crossing the Caspian Sea.
Russia has used a variety of heavy-handed methods to reach its
objective. By using its superior economic and military power, Russia
was able to force Iran and Armenia to sharply limit pipeline
capacities through their countries. In 2003, Gazprom attempted to
gain control of Georgia's network of high pressure gas transmission
lines, thus blocking any Azerbaijan gas from traveling through
Georgia, though the attempt was thwarted by financial aid from US
Agency for International Development. Tass (Moscow) and Jamestown and Atlantic Council
****
**** New 'facts on the ground' may force Russia to change its mind
****
In the Caspian Sea, Russia's major weapon was to stir disagreements
among the other four littoral states with regard to control of the
seabed.
International laws provide for various methods for splitting up
ownership of the seabed. According to one method, the size of the
region that each country gets depends on the length of the coastline
bordering the sea. Under this method Azerbaijan, Russia and
Kazakhstan would get the largest shares of the seabed, and so these
countries favor it.
According to a second set of rules, there are five littoral states,
and so the seabed would be split up equally among them, giving them
each 20% of the seabed. Iran and Turkmenistan favor this set of
rules, because they have the shortest shorelines.
At numerous summit meetings, the Russians have succeeding in provoking
disagreements among the countries, with the result that no agreement
has been reached in the 26 years since the Soviet Union disintegrated.
Since there's no agreement on who owns what, it's been difficult for
any country to develop energy projects, which is Russia's objective.
However, Russia's heavy-handed tactics began to backfire. Russia’s
four-day interruption of gas supplies to Ukraine in January 2006
caused a surge in Europe’s political resolve to diversify its natural
gas supplies and breathed new life into the still fledgling pipeline
projects vying to bring Caspian gas to Europe. Russian gas supplies
to Central and Southeast Europe were disrupted again from January 6 to
20 in 2009. This longer cutoff coincided with a period of cold weather
throughout the region.
This has led to "facts on the ground" that Russia is forced to
consider. Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR has started drilling a
new well. Norwegian companies have expressed an interest in working
with Iran to drill and explore oil fields in the Caspian Sea. And
Mideast countries are beginning to work with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan
and Turkmenistan on oil and gas projects in the Caspian Sea. All of
these energy projects specifically exclude Russia.
For 25 years, Russia has exploited political differences among the
other countries to block many pipeline projects, but at the same time,
that deadlock has led to expanded contacts between other pairs of
littoral states and increased shipping between and among them—again to
the exclusion of the Russia.
An even more ominous development for Russia is that since the start of
2017, the amount of cargo passing through Russian ports on the Caspian
Sea has fallen, compared to last year, by 48.4%. This figure is
striking given that Russian ports elsewhere have seen an 11% increase
in traffic over the same period, while the ports of other Caspian
littoral states have also grown busier. Such trends are worrisome to
Moscow because the decline in traffic at Russia’s Caspian ports is
accelerating and putting the country’s regional geopolitical strategy
at risk.
At any rate, Russia's deputy foreign minister said that "the Caspian
Sea should be an example of cooperation rather than confrontation,"
and that a legal status agreement should be concluded by the end of
the year. And yet, no date has been set for a signing of the legal
status agreement, and the setting of such a date is nowhere in sight.
Jamestown (George Goble) and Trend (Azerbaijan)
and Mehr News (Iran)
Related Articles
- Yukos nationalization may set the pattern for Russia in 2005 (29-Dec-2004)
- Azerbaijan conducts high-powered military exercises in the Caspian Sea (18-May-2012)
- Russia dramatically escalates Syria war launching cruise missiles from Caspian Sea (08-Oct-2015)
- Azerbaijan becomes the hub of the Caspian Trade Corridor, part of the new Silk Road (21-Jan-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Grigory Karasin, Caspian Sea,
Soviet Union, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan,
Gazprom, US Agency for International Development,
SOCAR, Norway
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
