07-11-2017, 10:15 PM
*** 12-Jul-17 World View -- China threatens military intervention in Kashmir on the side of Pakistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Thousands flee homes in Kashmir as Pakistan-India shelling escalates
****
![[Image: g170711b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170711b.jpg)
Long lines of pilgrims visiting the Amarnath shrine in 2016. Inside the 40 m (130 ft) high cave, water drops from melting snow fall from the roof of the cave to the floor, creating a stalagmite that grows upward.
Thousands of people have fled their homes in the Pakistan side of the
Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir and Jammu, because of continued
shelling across the LoC between India and Pakistan. About 80% of four
villages along the LoC have fled.
On the other side of the LoC, in India-controlled Kashmir, Indian
security forces clashed with stone-throwing protesters on Saturday.
Saturday was the one-year anniversary of the death on July 8, 2016, of
Burhan Wani, 22, a 22-year-old commander in the separatist militia
Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), after being shot in a gunfight with Indian
security forces. Since then, dozens of civilians have been killed,
thousands of Kashmiris have been blinded in one or both eyes by pellet
guns used by Indian security forces, and thousands of youths have been
arrested.
On Monday, India was shocked after Kashmiri militants killed 7 Hindu
pilgrims traveling by bus to Hindu's holiest shrine, the Amarnath
Temple. Each year, over 200,000 people make the Amarnath Yatra
(pilgrimage) to the shrine, at an altitude of 3,888 meters. Terror
attacks on the pilgrims have been extremely rare because both Hindus
and Muslims respect the shrine.
Security personnel are expecting more violence tomorrow (Wednesday),
when Kashmiri Muslims mark "Kashmir Martyrs' Day," the anniversary of
the July 13, 1931, when dozens of Muslims were killed in a
confrontation with British security forces.
Although there have been a continuing clashes between Kashmiris and
Indian security forces, so far there hasn't been the explosion that
some people have feared this summer, and many people are hoping that
things will remain steady until winter comes and brings respite from
the violence for another season.
Indian security forces have come under harsh criticism for failing to
control the violence in the past year, and also for using pellet guns
that blinded hundreds of people. In February of this year, the police
tried a new policy -- meeting the parents of potential militants in
the hope of gaining their cooperation in convincing these young people
that violence is not the right path. At that time, an estimated 80
youths were believed to have joined militant outfits.
The plan was announced by Kashmir's Director General of Police (DGP)
Shesh Paul Vaid, who said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We won't like to harm our own children. We are
> reaching out to the parents and requesting them to convince their
> children for shunning the path of violence. In few cases, we have
> achieved success also. We want that our children should fight in
> debates, competitive exams and not with guns.
>
> I have made appeals through my district Superintendents of Police
> and conveyed that all missing cases need to be verified on ground
> and corrective steps to be taken. Our first attempt is always
> humanitarian so that we can bring misguided children back. We have
> given an assurance that a lenient view will be taken in case the
> youths surrender voluntarily."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This approach appeared promising, but it has not been particularly
effective. Last month, India announced Operation All-Out,
a massive police operation "to deliver
a lethal blow to terrorism ... with a long-term plan for a lasting
peace in the trouble-torn Valley." This was never going to work, and
encourages tit-for-tat violence.
As I've written several times,
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying
previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard
template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's
1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British
colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of
the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, when the British
colonists partitioned the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
Kashmir is at the heart of a re-fighting of those two wars, and there
is nothing that the Indian security forces can do to prevent it.
AFP and Washington Post and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) Times of India
Related Articles
****
**** China threatens military intervention in Kashmir on the side of Pakistan
****
We've been reporting
a standoff
between India's army and China's army on Doklam plateau in the tiny
country of Bhutan. China is attempting to annex the region, and on
June 16 sent Chinese troops and construction workers to begin road
construction. Bhutan troops tried to prevent the Chinese troop
incursion, but they were overrun. Bhutan invoked a treaty with India
and asked for help. India sent in its own troops, creating a
standoff, though no bullets have been fired. Neither the Chinese nor
the Indians appear ready to back down.
A Chinese official, Long Xingchun, is threatening to use the situation
on the Doklam plateau as justification for China to invade Kashmir on
the side of Pakistan:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Indian troops invaded China's Doklam area in the name
> of helping Bhutan, but in fact the invasion was intended to help
> India by making use of Bhutan. ...
>
> India controls Bhutan's defense and diplomacy, seriously violating
> Bhutan's sovereignty and national interests. Indians have migrated
> in large numbers to Nepal and Bhutan, interfering with Nepal's
> internal affairs. The first challenge for Nepal and Bhutan is to
> avoid becoming a state of India, like Sikkim. ...
>
> Even if India were requested to defend Bhutan's territory, this
> could only be limited to its established territory, not the
> disputed area. Otherwise, under India's logic, if the Pakistani
> government requests, a third country's army can enter the area
> disputed by India and Pakistan, including India-controlled
> Kashmir."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
At this point, we have to remind readers that China is an
international criminal, annexing the territories of other countries in
the South China Sea, and building illegal military bases, in violation
of international law as determined by a 2016 ruling by the United
Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague, which
declared China's activities in the South China Sea to be illegal.
China has used extortion and military force against some Central Asian
countries to annex territories. China had apparently hoped to bully
Bhutan to give up its territory without a fight, and is now furious
that India is defending Bhutan's territory.
So now China is threatening India, saying that if India can send
troops into Bhutan, then China can send troops into Kashmir. It's
hard to see any way that this can end well. Global Times (Beijing) and New Delhi TV and South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG - India)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Jammu,
Line of Control, LoC, Amarnath shrine, Kashmir Martyr's Day,
Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, Shesh Paul Vaid,
China, Bhutan, Doklam plateau, Long Xingchun
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Thousands flee homes in Kashmir as Pakistan-India shelling escalates
- China threatens military intervention in Kashmir on the side of Pakistan
****
**** Thousands flee homes in Kashmir as Pakistan-India shelling escalates
****
Long lines of pilgrims visiting the Amarnath shrine in 2016. Inside the 40 m (130 ft) high cave, water drops from melting snow fall from the roof of the cave to the floor, creating a stalagmite that grows upward.
Thousands of people have fled their homes in the Pakistan side of the
Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir and Jammu, because of continued
shelling across the LoC between India and Pakistan. About 80% of four
villages along the LoC have fled.
On the other side of the LoC, in India-controlled Kashmir, Indian
security forces clashed with stone-throwing protesters on Saturday.
Saturday was the one-year anniversary of the death on July 8, 2016, of
Burhan Wani, 22, a 22-year-old commander in the separatist militia
Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), after being shot in a gunfight with Indian
security forces. Since then, dozens of civilians have been killed,
thousands of Kashmiris have been blinded in one or both eyes by pellet
guns used by Indian security forces, and thousands of youths have been
arrested.
On Monday, India was shocked after Kashmiri militants killed 7 Hindu
pilgrims traveling by bus to Hindu's holiest shrine, the Amarnath
Temple. Each year, over 200,000 people make the Amarnath Yatra
(pilgrimage) to the shrine, at an altitude of 3,888 meters. Terror
attacks on the pilgrims have been extremely rare because both Hindus
and Muslims respect the shrine.
Security personnel are expecting more violence tomorrow (Wednesday),
when Kashmiri Muslims mark "Kashmir Martyrs' Day," the anniversary of
the July 13, 1931, when dozens of Muslims were killed in a
confrontation with British security forces.
Although there have been a continuing clashes between Kashmiris and
Indian security forces, so far there hasn't been the explosion that
some people have feared this summer, and many people are hoping that
things will remain steady until winter comes and brings respite from
the violence for another season.
Indian security forces have come under harsh criticism for failing to
control the violence in the past year, and also for using pellet guns
that blinded hundreds of people. In February of this year, the police
tried a new policy -- meeting the parents of potential militants in
the hope of gaining their cooperation in convincing these young people
that violence is not the right path. At that time, an estimated 80
youths were believed to have joined militant outfits.
The plan was announced by Kashmir's Director General of Police (DGP)
Shesh Paul Vaid, who said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We won't like to harm our own children. We are
> reaching out to the parents and requesting them to convince their
> children for shunning the path of violence. In few cases, we have
> achieved success also. We want that our children should fight in
> debates, competitive exams and not with guns.
>
> I have made appeals through my district Superintendents of Police
> and conveyed that all missing cases need to be verified on ground
> and corrective steps to be taken. Our first attempt is always
> humanitarian so that we can bring misguided children back. We have
> given an assurance that a lenient view will be taken in case the
> youths surrender voluntarily."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This approach appeared promising, but it has not been particularly
effective. Last month, India announced Operation All-Out,
a massive police operation "to deliver
a lethal blow to terrorism ... with a long-term plan for a lasting
peace in the trouble-torn Valley." This was never going to work, and
encourages tit-for-tat violence.
As I've written several times,
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying
previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard
template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's
1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British
colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of
the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, when the British
colonists partitioned the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
Kashmir is at the heart of a re-fighting of those two wars, and there
is nothing that the Indian security forces can do to prevent it.
AFP and Washington Post and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) Times of India
Related Articles
- India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war (24-Jun-2017)
- Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep (06-May-2017)
- Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leave thousands injured (14-Jul-2016)
- Uprising in Kashmir growing into major regional war between India and Pakistan (01-Apr-2017)
****
**** China threatens military intervention in Kashmir on the side of Pakistan
****
We've been reporting
a standoff
between India's army and China's army on Doklam plateau in the tiny
country of Bhutan. China is attempting to annex the region, and on
June 16 sent Chinese troops and construction workers to begin road
construction. Bhutan troops tried to prevent the Chinese troop
incursion, but they were overrun. Bhutan invoked a treaty with India
and asked for help. India sent in its own troops, creating a
standoff, though no bullets have been fired. Neither the Chinese nor
the Indians appear ready to back down.
A Chinese official, Long Xingchun, is threatening to use the situation
on the Doklam plateau as justification for China to invade Kashmir on
the side of Pakistan:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Indian troops invaded China's Doklam area in the name
> of helping Bhutan, but in fact the invasion was intended to help
> India by making use of Bhutan. ...
>
> India controls Bhutan's defense and diplomacy, seriously violating
> Bhutan's sovereignty and national interests. Indians have migrated
> in large numbers to Nepal and Bhutan, interfering with Nepal's
> internal affairs. The first challenge for Nepal and Bhutan is to
> avoid becoming a state of India, like Sikkim. ...
>
> Even if India were requested to defend Bhutan's territory, this
> could only be limited to its established territory, not the
> disputed area. Otherwise, under India's logic, if the Pakistani
> government requests, a third country's army can enter the area
> disputed by India and Pakistan, including India-controlled
> Kashmir."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
At this point, we have to remind readers that China is an
international criminal, annexing the territories of other countries in
the South China Sea, and building illegal military bases, in violation
of international law as determined by a 2016 ruling by the United
Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague, which
declared China's activities in the South China Sea to be illegal.
China has used extortion and military force against some Central Asian
countries to annex territories. China had apparently hoped to bully
Bhutan to give up its territory without a fight, and is now furious
that India is defending Bhutan's territory.
So now China is threatening India, saying that if India can send
troops into Bhutan, then China can send troops into Kashmir. It's
hard to see any way that this can end well. Global Times (Beijing) and New Delhi TV and South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG - India)
Related Articles
- China and India have military confrontation over Bhutan's Doklam plateau (08-Jul-2017)
- As Narendra Modi visits Washington, China threatens India after border clash (28-Jun-2017)
- China's 'thuggery' transforms Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement into independence movement (30-Aug-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Jammu,
Line of Control, LoC, Amarnath shrine, Kashmir Martyr's Day,
Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, Shesh Paul Vaid,
China, Bhutan, Doklam plateau, Long Xingchun
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
