07-18-2017, 08:38 AM
(07-17-2017, 10:43 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Given what you just said if china wants to avoid war with India or
> even Japan and Vietnam in the immediate time frame; why would they
> challenge the US instead? Everyone knows that the US is stronger
> than both India and Russia? Why would that be deemed by Chinese
> leaders as a less risky option?
These questions have to do with the scenario that will start WW III.
There's no way to predict the scenario, since there are so many
possibilities, but we can look at the scenarios that started previous
wars and try to learn lessons from them.
- WW II did not begin with the Anschluss of Nazi Germany and
Austria, nor did it begin with the Nazi invasion Czechoslovakia.
Hitler was using the "salami technique" of one conquest after another,
each one thought to be too small to trigger an all-out war.
Nonetheless, when the Nazis invaded Poland, Britain felt it had to
intervene.
Today, China is using the same "salami technique" in the South China
Sea and elsewhere, as it plans to take control of their entire region
and control all access to it. At some point, China will take a step
too far, and Vietnam or the Philippines or India or Australia or the
United States will feel obligated to oppose the Chinese. Another
example is that North Korea is using a kind of "salami technique" to
develop a nuclear-tipped ICBM that could reach American soil. At some
point, North Korea may conduct one more nuclear weapon test or one
more ballistic missile test that will cause the US or China to decide
to do something to stop further nuclear development, and that could
trigger a war.
However, a "small action" doesn't always trigger a world war. There
are numerous examples -- US invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11, US
invasion of Iraq over fear of WMDs (58 year hypothesis), Israel's
invasion of Lebanon because of Hezbollah's actions (58 year
hypothesis), Saudi Arabia's invasion of Yemen, the proxy war in Syria,
Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea, Russia's invasion of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, and so forth.
- The Pacific theatre of WW II began when Imperial Japan attacked
Pearl Harbor and other American targets. Today, China may decide to
launch a direct attack on the US and/or India.
- WW I began when a high school student decided to shoot and kill
the archduke of another country. We can imagine many variations of
this today. In 2011, Salman Taseer, the governor of Pakistan's Punjab
province, tried to reform the blasphemy laws, and was shot dead by his
own bodyguard. So, if an official from India had been visiting Taseer
that day, that same bodyguard might have decided to shoot and kill the
Indian official, and that might have triggered retaliation or a war.
As another example, in December of last year in Ankara, a member of
Turkey's security forces shot and killed Russia's ambassador to
Turkey. Russia decided not to retaliate, but they might have. As a
final example, one country's "special forces" might infiltrate another
country and kill the country's leader, and that could trigger
retaliation and a war.
- The War of the Spanish Succession began with a legal issue:
The death of the King of Spain, and a will that bequeathed
Spain to the grandson of the King of France, triggering
the war. Today, some sort of legal issue in Taiwan might appear
to Beijing to be moving Taiwan in the direction of independence,
which would trigger a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Or we're
seeing this crazy blockade of Qatar by four Arab countries,
based on little more than legalisms. That could trigger some
sort of war.
- Many wars have begun with popular rebellions. There's Russia's
Bolshevik Revolution, China's Taiping Rebellion, China's Communist
Revolution, Iran's Great Islamic Revolution, the French Revolution,
and so forth. This could happen today in countries like China,
Russia, Egypt, and so forth.
- Some country (China) could trigger one of America's mutual defense
treaties. The United States has some sort of mutual defense treaty
with many countries: Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, the
Philippines, the Marshall Islands, the ANZUS agreement with Australia
and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement
with all of Europe.
So you can take your pick as to which scenario is most likely.
Many of these situations would not have triggered a world war during
an Awakening or Unraveling era, but will do so in a Crisis era because
the populations are extremely nationalistic, xenophobic, and
irrational.
** 29-Jun-14 World View -- What could trigger another world war?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e140629
