09-03-2017, 10:09 PM
*** 4-Sep-17 World View -- Will we have to accept a world in which North Korea is a nuclear power?
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Will we have to accept a world in which North Korea is a nuclear power?
****
![[Image: g170903b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170903b.jpg)
The giggling North Korean news reader Ri Chun-Hee announces the nuclear test
North Korea claimed on Sunday to have successfully tested a hydrogen
bomb, the country's sixth nuclear test. The detonation produced 10
times more power than the fifth nuclear test a year ago, based on
earthquake monitoring measurements.
According to Kune Y. Suh, a nuclear engineering professor at Seoul
National University in South Korea:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"That scale is to the level where anyone can say (it
> is) a hydrogen bomb test. North Korea has effectively established
> itself as a nuclear state. This is not just a game changer, it’s a
> game over."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
North Korea claimed in state media that they have the capability to
produce as many hydrogen bombs as they want, and that they have the
ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) technology to reach almost
any part of mainland United States.
However, many experts point out that North Korea has not yet proven
that it can weigh down a ballistic missile with a nuclear weapon, and
still have the power to reach mainland United States. But even if
they don't yet have that capability, the extremely rapid development
of their nuclear and ballistic missile technology indicates that they
will have that capability soon. Tribune Media (India) and 38 North (S. Korea) and
KCNA (N. Korea)
****
**** World leaders express outrage and call nuclear test 'unacceptable'
****
Many world leaders gave laughable expressions of outrage that
we've heard dozens of times before, repeatedly over many years.
South Korea's president Moon Jae-in said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"North Korea has made an absurd tactical mistake, by
> committing a series of provocations such as launching ICBM
> missiles, and conducting a nuclear test. This has heightened
> tensions on the peninsula and is threatening world peace. It will
> isolate them further."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe said that the test
was totally unacceptable:
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe initially said, "The North's
nuclear test, if it turns out to be true, could never be tolerated."
Later, his office issued a statement saying:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"In addition, given the fact that North Korea has
> belligerently conducted ballistic missile launches repeatedly this
> year, the UN Security Council has strongly condemned these
> actions. Under such circumstances, this nuclear test, which North
> Korea conducted today despite these calls, is totally
> unacceptable.
>
> Taking into consideration that North Korea has enhanced its
> capabilities through its six nuclear tests, including the one
> today, as well as more than ten launches of ballistic missiles
> conducted this year, which could serve as a means to deliver
> weapons of mass destruction, including the two ICBM-class
> ballistic missile launches in July and the ballistic missile
> launch in August that flew over the Japanese territories, North
> Korea’s nuclear and missile development has entered a new level of
> threat - more grave and imminent - against Japan’s national
> security and seriously undermines the peace and security of the
> region as well as the international community."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The nuclear test was conducted near China's border, and the Chinese
have announced that they are test some border towns for nuclear
fallout.
Even worse, the test appears to have timed specifically to embarrass
China's president Xi Jinping. Xi is hosting the opening of a major
BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) conference, and
North Korea's test came hours before Xi was scheduled to give his
welcoming address.
China's Foreign Ministry said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>[North Korea] disregarded universal opposition of the
> international community by conducting the test. We strongly urge
> North Korea side to face up to the firm will of the international
> community on the denuclearization of the peninsula, abide by
> relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council, stop taking wrong
> actions that exacerbate the situation and are not in its own
> interest, and return to the track of resolving the issue through
> dialogue."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
All of the above statements are just hot air, and totally
meaningless.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin tried to augment his equally
meaningless statements with a threat of sanctions:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I am going to draft a sanctions package to send to
> the president for his strong consideration that anybody that wants
> to do trade or business with them would be prevented from doing
> trade or business with us. People need to cut off North Korea
> economically. This is unacceptable behavior."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Once again, this is completely laughable. North Korea has ignored
sanctions for decades, and will continue to do so. Sanctions,
negotiations, bilateral talks, six-party talks, have all been tried
and have all failed, and they will again.
President Donald Trump tweeted:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The United States is considering, in addition to
> other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business
> with North Korea."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This is presumably targeted at China, but it's a completely empty
threat. At most there might be some tiny symbolic sanctions directed
at some of China's banks. If any real sanction is attempted, China
will announce counter-sanctions. Either way, North Korea won't be
affected. CNN and Japan's government and CNN Money
****
**** Will the United States take some military action against North Korea?
****
![[Image: g170903c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170903c.jpg)
Pyongyang residents cheer the televised announcement (Reuters)
Some people are suggesting that if North Korea becomes a nuclear
power, it's OK. After all, China and Russia are nuclear powers, so
why not North Korea? Let them have their nuclear ICBMs that can reach
any part of the US mainland, and then everything will settle down,
according to these experts.
The problem with that reasoning is that the testing would never stop.
North Korea would continue developing bigger and more powerful
missiles and nuclear weapons, launching one nuclear ballistic missile
after another, presumably resulting in a nuclear explosion in the
Pacific Ocean. North Korea's child dictator is obviously having too
much fun to want to "settle down" after one nuclear weapon is
successful.
President Trump has said, "North Korea best not make any more threats
to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the
world has never seen." This is being viewed by many observers as
having defined a "red line," similar to Obama's "red line" threat over
Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons. Trump followed through on
Obama's threat after Obama didn't, and now everyone is watching to see
whether Trump will back down the way Obama did.
A month ago, Senator Lindsey Graham said that he had spoken with
Donald Trump, and said that it is inevitable that war is coming with North Korea:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I’m saying it’s inevitable unless North Korea changes
> because you’re making our president pick between regional
> stability and homeland security.
>
> If there’s going to be a war to stop him [Kim], it will be over
> there. If thousands die, they’re going to die over there.
> They’re not going to die here. And he [Trump] has told me that to
> my face."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
On Saturday, hours before the nuclear test took place, Graham
said the following in a BBC interview:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I am 100% certain that if Kim Jong-un continues to
> develop missile technology that can hit America, if diplomacy
> fails to stop him, there will be an attack by the United States
> against his weapons systems. I'm assuming the worst. I'm
> assuming that if we drop one bomb, he fires at South Korea, and
> maybe Japan. Let me tell you have the war ends. It ends with his
> utter destruction. Thousands of people could be killed or maimed.
> There's a lot at stake here. And let me ask you - why would the
> world, given his track record, the North Korean leader, allow him
> to get a hydrogen bomb with a missile to deliver it anywhere in
> the world? Why would we do that?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]
On Sunday, Defense Secretary James Mattis met with Donald Trump, Mike
Pence and top national security advisers, and promised "a massive
military response" to any threat from North Korea against the United
States or its allies, including Japan or Guam.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're
headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting China, Pakistan
and the Sunni Muslim countries versus India, Russia, Iran and the
West. It's impossible to predict the scenario that will lead to this world war,
but right now it looks
like the most likely scenarios involved North Korea. BBC and CNN and RFE/RL
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, Moon Jae-in,
Ri Chun-Hee, Kune Y. Suh, Japan, Shinzo Abe, China, Xi Jinping,
Steven Mnuchin, Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, James Mattis,
Rex Tillerson
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Will we have to accept a world in which North Korea is a nuclear power?
- World leaders express outrage and call nuclear test 'unacceptable'
- Will the United States take some military action against North Korea?
****
**** Will we have to accept a world in which North Korea is a nuclear power?
****
The giggling North Korean news reader Ri Chun-Hee announces the nuclear test
North Korea claimed on Sunday to have successfully tested a hydrogen
bomb, the country's sixth nuclear test. The detonation produced 10
times more power than the fifth nuclear test a year ago, based on
earthquake monitoring measurements.
According to Kune Y. Suh, a nuclear engineering professor at Seoul
National University in South Korea:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"That scale is to the level where anyone can say (it
> is) a hydrogen bomb test. North Korea has effectively established
> itself as a nuclear state. This is not just a game changer, it’s a
> game over."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
North Korea claimed in state media that they have the capability to
produce as many hydrogen bombs as they want, and that they have the
ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) technology to reach almost
any part of mainland United States.
However, many experts point out that North Korea has not yet proven
that it can weigh down a ballistic missile with a nuclear weapon, and
still have the power to reach mainland United States. But even if
they don't yet have that capability, the extremely rapid development
of their nuclear and ballistic missile technology indicates that they
will have that capability soon. Tribune Media (India) and 38 North (S. Korea) and
KCNA (N. Korea)
****
**** World leaders express outrage and call nuclear test 'unacceptable'
****
Many world leaders gave laughable expressions of outrage that
we've heard dozens of times before, repeatedly over many years.
South Korea's president Moon Jae-in said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"North Korea has made an absurd tactical mistake, by
> committing a series of provocations such as launching ICBM
> missiles, and conducting a nuclear test. This has heightened
> tensions on the peninsula and is threatening world peace. It will
> isolate them further."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe said that the test
was totally unacceptable:
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe initially said, "The North's
nuclear test, if it turns out to be true, could never be tolerated."
Later, his office issued a statement saying:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"In addition, given the fact that North Korea has
> belligerently conducted ballistic missile launches repeatedly this
> year, the UN Security Council has strongly condemned these
> actions. Under such circumstances, this nuclear test, which North
> Korea conducted today despite these calls, is totally
> unacceptable.
>
> Taking into consideration that North Korea has enhanced its
> capabilities through its six nuclear tests, including the one
> today, as well as more than ten launches of ballistic missiles
> conducted this year, which could serve as a means to deliver
> weapons of mass destruction, including the two ICBM-class
> ballistic missile launches in July and the ballistic missile
> launch in August that flew over the Japanese territories, North
> Korea’s nuclear and missile development has entered a new level of
> threat - more grave and imminent - against Japan’s national
> security and seriously undermines the peace and security of the
> region as well as the international community."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The nuclear test was conducted near China's border, and the Chinese
have announced that they are test some border towns for nuclear
fallout.
Even worse, the test appears to have timed specifically to embarrass
China's president Xi Jinping. Xi is hosting the opening of a major
BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) conference, and
North Korea's test came hours before Xi was scheduled to give his
welcoming address.
China's Foreign Ministry said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>[North Korea] disregarded universal opposition of the
> international community by conducting the test. We strongly urge
> North Korea side to face up to the firm will of the international
> community on the denuclearization of the peninsula, abide by
> relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council, stop taking wrong
> actions that exacerbate the situation and are not in its own
> interest, and return to the track of resolving the issue through
> dialogue."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
All of the above statements are just hot air, and totally
meaningless.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin tried to augment his equally
meaningless statements with a threat of sanctions:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I am going to draft a sanctions package to send to
> the president for his strong consideration that anybody that wants
> to do trade or business with them would be prevented from doing
> trade or business with us. People need to cut off North Korea
> economically. This is unacceptable behavior."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Once again, this is completely laughable. North Korea has ignored
sanctions for decades, and will continue to do so. Sanctions,
negotiations, bilateral talks, six-party talks, have all been tried
and have all failed, and they will again.
President Donald Trump tweeted:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The United States is considering, in addition to
> other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business
> with North Korea."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This is presumably targeted at China, but it's a completely empty
threat. At most there might be some tiny symbolic sanctions directed
at some of China's banks. If any real sanction is attempted, China
will announce counter-sanctions. Either way, North Korea won't be
affected. CNN and Japan's government and CNN Money
****
**** Will the United States take some military action against North Korea?
****
Pyongyang residents cheer the televised announcement (Reuters)
Some people are suggesting that if North Korea becomes a nuclear
power, it's OK. After all, China and Russia are nuclear powers, so
why not North Korea? Let them have their nuclear ICBMs that can reach
any part of the US mainland, and then everything will settle down,
according to these experts.
The problem with that reasoning is that the testing would never stop.
North Korea would continue developing bigger and more powerful
missiles and nuclear weapons, launching one nuclear ballistic missile
after another, presumably resulting in a nuclear explosion in the
Pacific Ocean. North Korea's child dictator is obviously having too
much fun to want to "settle down" after one nuclear weapon is
successful.
President Trump has said, "North Korea best not make any more threats
to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the
world has never seen." This is being viewed by many observers as
having defined a "red line," similar to Obama's "red line" threat over
Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons. Trump followed through on
Obama's threat after Obama didn't, and now everyone is watching to see
whether Trump will back down the way Obama did.
A month ago, Senator Lindsey Graham said that he had spoken with
Donald Trump, and said that it is inevitable that war is coming with North Korea:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I’m saying it’s inevitable unless North Korea changes
> because you’re making our president pick between regional
> stability and homeland security.
>
> If there’s going to be a war to stop him [Kim], it will be over
> there. If thousands die, they’re going to die over there.
> They’re not going to die here. And he [Trump] has told me that to
> my face."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
On Saturday, hours before the nuclear test took place, Graham
said the following in a BBC interview:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I am 100% certain that if Kim Jong-un continues to
> develop missile technology that can hit America, if diplomacy
> fails to stop him, there will be an attack by the United States
> against his weapons systems. I'm assuming the worst. I'm
> assuming that if we drop one bomb, he fires at South Korea, and
> maybe Japan. Let me tell you have the war ends. It ends with his
> utter destruction. Thousands of people could be killed or maimed.
> There's a lot at stake here. And let me ask you - why would the
> world, given his track record, the North Korean leader, allow him
> to get a hydrogen bomb with a missile to deliver it anywhere in
> the world? Why would we do that?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]
On Sunday, Defense Secretary James Mattis met with Donald Trump, Mike
Pence and top national security advisers, and promised "a massive
military response" to any threat from North Korea against the United
States or its allies, including Japan or Guam.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're
headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting China, Pakistan
and the Sunni Muslim countries versus India, Russia, Iran and the
West. It's impossible to predict the scenario that will lead to this world war,
but right now it looks
like the most likely scenarios involved North Korea. BBC and CNN and RFE/RL
Related Articles
- China threatens India, as Trump threatens North Korea (09-Aug-2017)
- Rex Tillerson warns China is risking 'open conflict' with the United States (03-Aug-2017)
- South Korea approves new THAAD deployment after North Korean missile test (30-Jul-2017)
- America's likely response to N. Korean test: THAAD, Aegis missile defense systems (14-Feb-2017)
- South Korea announces 'Massive Punishment and Retaliation' and decapitation for N. Korea (12-Sep-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, Moon Jae-in,
Ri Chun-Hee, Kune Y. Suh, Japan, Shinzo Abe, China, Xi Jinping,
Steven Mnuchin, Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, James Mattis,
Rex Tillerson
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
