09-25-2017, 10:45 PM
*** 26-Sep-17 World View -- US adopts strategic response to North Korea's threats to shoot down US warplanes
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** North Korea threatens to shoot down US warplanes
****
![[Image: g170925b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170925b.jpg)
An anti-US rally on Friday in Pyongyang, North Korea (KCNA/Reuters)
Ri Yong-ho, North Korea's ambassador to the United Nations, said that
Donald Trump had declared war on North Korea, and that therefore North
Korea had the right to shoot down US warplanes, even over
international airspace. According to Ri:
<QUOTE>"The world, including all member states currently
attending the United Nations General Assembly, must clearly
remember that this time, America declared war on us first. The
U.N. charter acknowledges all member states' independent rights to
self-defense.
Since the United States declared war on our country, we will have
every right to make counter-measures, including the right to shoot
down United States strategic bombers even when they are not inside
the airspace border of our country."<END QUOTE>
Ri was probably alluding to the American warplanes that flew over
international airspace just east of North Korea over the weekend.
Pentagon spokesman Dana White described these flights: "This is the
farthest north of the Demilitarized Zone any U.S. fighter or bomber
aircraft have flown off North Korea's coast in the 21st century."
White House spokesman Sarah Huckabee Sanders responded to Ri's threats
as follows:
<QUOTE>"We have not declared war on North Korea and, frankly,
the suggestion of that is absurd. ... It's never appropriate for a
country to shoot down another country's aircraft when it's over
international waters.
Our goal is still the same. We continue to seek the peaceful
denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. That’s our focus, doing
that through both the most maximum economic and diplomatic
pressures as possible at this point."<END QUOTE>
The events of the past three days follow months of increasingly
vitriolic threats and exchanges. Recently, America's UN ambassador
Nikki Haley said that North Korea was "begging for war." Russia's
president Vladimir Putin said that North Korea would "rather eat
grass" than end its nuclear program.
The claim of "declaration of war" is a response to president Donald
Trump's speech last week at the United Nations, where he ridiculed
North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un by calling him "Rocket Man," and
saying he was on a "suicide mission":
<QUOTE>"No nation on Earth has an interest in seeing this
band of criminals arm itself with nuclear weapons and
missiles. The United States has great strength and patience, but
if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no
choice but to totally destroy North Korea. Rocket Man is on a
suicide mission for himself and for his regime. The United States
is ready, willing, and able, but hopefully this will not be
necessary. That's what the United Nations is all about. That's
what the United Nations is for. Let's see how they
do."<END QUOTE>
Kim responded with an equally personal insult directed at Trump:
<QUOTE>"I am now thinking hard about what response he could
have expected when he allowed such eccentric words to trip off his
tongue. I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged
U.S. dotard with fire."<END QUOTE>
Trump tweeted in response to Ri's threat: "Just heard Foreign Minister
of North Korea speak at UN. If he echoes thoughts of Little Rocket
Man, they won’t be around much longer!"
Could North Korea actually shoot down a US warplane? Most analysts
believe not. North Korea is believed to have thousands of Soviet-era
surface-to-air missiles, but those are old technologies that US
warplanes could presumably avoid. However, North Korea has produce
its own KN-06 surface-to-air missile, and perhaps Kim believes that it
could be successful in shooting down an American warplane. NPR and Washington Post and Foreign Policy
****
**** Is there a strategic explanation for Trump's statements and tweets?
****
What's going on here between the US and North Korea? Is this just two
countries stumbling into war, or is there some strategy in operation?
There are thousands of attempted explanations on the internet. This
is mine.
America faces a very stark choice. Many people are suggesting that we
do nothing, which would mean appeasement.
If we do nothing, then North Korea will build an arsenal of nuclear
missiles pointed at Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Even
if those missiles are launched, they can be used for blackmail. Kim
would threaten US forces in South Korea, Guam, and elsewhere. Kim
would demand that all of those forces be withdrawn, and he would have
the support of China and Russia. He would also be supported by the
same people who are advising appeasement now.
When the North Koreans make a nuclear threat, it's quite possible that
they would carry it out. In 2010, the North conducted two acts of war
targeting South Korea -- in May, North Korea torpedoed and sank the warship Cheonan,
killing dozens
of South Korean crew members, and in November, North Korea killed
South Korean civilians by shelling Yeonpyeong Island.
In both cases, the South Koreans chose not to
respond, but it's pretty clear that they might have.
So I believe that doing nothing, appeasing North Korea, would lead to
war, and I believe that the Trump administration has the same view.
Many of the analyses in the mainstream media start with the assumption
that Kim Jong-un is correct in calling Trump a "dotard" and a "madman"
with his finger on the nuclear button. These opinions are idiotic,
but they are extremely common.
Donald Trump and the US are facing a stark situation. Doing nothing,
appeasement, leads to war. Therefore, something must be done.
Therefore, we can assume that Trump is following a strategy. I do not
for a second believe the idiotic statements by mainstream reports that
Trump's name-calling is random and uncontrolled. I believe that
Trump's actions, including his tweets, are all part of a strategy.
This is my opinion as to what that strategy is.
Part of the strategy is, of course, using strong sanctions, in the
hope that North Korea will end its nuclear program. I don't think
anyone serious believes that it will since, as Putin said, North Korea
would rather eat grass. However, it's possible that the sanctions and
threats of military action are really directed at the Chinese. It's
apparent that Russia and China have absolutely no objection to North
Korea having an arsenal of nuclear missiles targeting the United
States, since they won't be targeting China or Russia. However,
sanctions and military threats might convince the Chinese to force Kim
to stop his nuclear missile program. So that's part of the strategy.
But in the end, no one seriously believes that any of these diplomatic
strategies will work. If the US wants to prevent North Korea from
having an arsenal of nuclear weapons pointed at South Korea, Japan,
and the US, then military action will have to be taken. After
Monday's threat to shoot down an American bomber, the Pentagon said
that it is preparing military options for Trump.
Many analysts have said that no military action is possible without
putting millions of people in Seoul, the capital city of South Korea,
at risk. However, several days ago, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis
was asked whether there were any military options the United States
could take with North Korea that would not put Seoul at grave risk.
Mattis said: “Yes there are. But I will not go into details.” So I
don't know if Mattis was telling the truth, but whether he was or not,
some military action must be taken.
Several weeks ago, China said that if the US attacked North Korea
first, then China would join North Korea in fighting the US. But if
North Korea attacked first, and the US responded, then China would not
defend North Korea.
So my explanation for Trump's strategy is that he's trying to provoke
a military attack by North Korea. In 2010, the North Koreans attacked
South Korea by torpedoing the warship Cheonan and by shelling
Yeonpyeong Island, as described above. My belief is that Trump is
trying to provoke North Korea to do it again, by means of the
name-calling and by flying American warplanes just outside of North
Korea's airspace. If the North even tries to shoot down an American
warplane, then a counter-attack would be justified, and China has
promised not to defend North Korea.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're seeing a
typical pattern that historically has preceded any generational Crisis
war, where each side "crosses the line," and the other side responds
by "crossing the line" further, in a tit-for-tat ping pong of
responses and counter-responses, eventually leading to war. As
regular readers know, the world is headed for a Clash of Civilizations
world war, pitting America, India, Russia, Iran and the West against
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. Unfortunately, this
is inevitable, no matter what strategy the US pursues in Korea.
Fox News/AP and Reuters
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Ri Yong-ho,
Dana White, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
China, South Korea, Guam, Japan, Cheonan, Yeonpyeong Island
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- North Korea threatens to shoot down US warplanes
- Is there a strategic explanation for Trump's statements and tweets?
****
**** North Korea threatens to shoot down US warplanes
****
An anti-US rally on Friday in Pyongyang, North Korea (KCNA/Reuters)
Ri Yong-ho, North Korea's ambassador to the United Nations, said that
Donald Trump had declared war on North Korea, and that therefore North
Korea had the right to shoot down US warplanes, even over
international airspace. According to Ri:
<QUOTE>"The world, including all member states currently
attending the United Nations General Assembly, must clearly
remember that this time, America declared war on us first. The
U.N. charter acknowledges all member states' independent rights to
self-defense.
Since the United States declared war on our country, we will have
every right to make counter-measures, including the right to shoot
down United States strategic bombers even when they are not inside
the airspace border of our country."<END QUOTE>
Ri was probably alluding to the American warplanes that flew over
international airspace just east of North Korea over the weekend.
Pentagon spokesman Dana White described these flights: "This is the
farthest north of the Demilitarized Zone any U.S. fighter or bomber
aircraft have flown off North Korea's coast in the 21st century."
White House spokesman Sarah Huckabee Sanders responded to Ri's threats
as follows:
<QUOTE>"We have not declared war on North Korea and, frankly,
the suggestion of that is absurd. ... It's never appropriate for a
country to shoot down another country's aircraft when it's over
international waters.
Our goal is still the same. We continue to seek the peaceful
denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. That’s our focus, doing
that through both the most maximum economic and diplomatic
pressures as possible at this point."<END QUOTE>
The events of the past three days follow months of increasingly
vitriolic threats and exchanges. Recently, America's UN ambassador
Nikki Haley said that North Korea was "begging for war." Russia's
president Vladimir Putin said that North Korea would "rather eat
grass" than end its nuclear program.
The claim of "declaration of war" is a response to president Donald
Trump's speech last week at the United Nations, where he ridiculed
North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un by calling him "Rocket Man," and
saying he was on a "suicide mission":
<QUOTE>"No nation on Earth has an interest in seeing this
band of criminals arm itself with nuclear weapons and
missiles. The United States has great strength and patience, but
if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no
choice but to totally destroy North Korea. Rocket Man is on a
suicide mission for himself and for his regime. The United States
is ready, willing, and able, but hopefully this will not be
necessary. That's what the United Nations is all about. That's
what the United Nations is for. Let's see how they
do."<END QUOTE>
Kim responded with an equally personal insult directed at Trump:
<QUOTE>"I am now thinking hard about what response he could
have expected when he allowed such eccentric words to trip off his
tongue. I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged
U.S. dotard with fire."<END QUOTE>
Trump tweeted in response to Ri's threat: "Just heard Foreign Minister
of North Korea speak at UN. If he echoes thoughts of Little Rocket
Man, they won’t be around much longer!"
Could North Korea actually shoot down a US warplane? Most analysts
believe not. North Korea is believed to have thousands of Soviet-era
surface-to-air missiles, but those are old technologies that US
warplanes could presumably avoid. However, North Korea has produce
its own KN-06 surface-to-air missile, and perhaps Kim believes that it
could be successful in shooting down an American warplane. NPR and Washington Post and Foreign Policy
****
**** Is there a strategic explanation for Trump's statements and tweets?
****
What's going on here between the US and North Korea? Is this just two
countries stumbling into war, or is there some strategy in operation?
There are thousands of attempted explanations on the internet. This
is mine.
America faces a very stark choice. Many people are suggesting that we
do nothing, which would mean appeasement.
If we do nothing, then North Korea will build an arsenal of nuclear
missiles pointed at Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Even
if those missiles are launched, they can be used for blackmail. Kim
would threaten US forces in South Korea, Guam, and elsewhere. Kim
would demand that all of those forces be withdrawn, and he would have
the support of China and Russia. He would also be supported by the
same people who are advising appeasement now.
When the North Koreans make a nuclear threat, it's quite possible that
they would carry it out. In 2010, the North conducted two acts of war
targeting South Korea -- in May, North Korea torpedoed and sank the warship Cheonan,
killing dozens
of South Korean crew members, and in November, North Korea killed
South Korean civilians by shelling Yeonpyeong Island.
In both cases, the South Koreans chose not to
respond, but it's pretty clear that they might have.
So I believe that doing nothing, appeasing North Korea, would lead to
war, and I believe that the Trump administration has the same view.
Many of the analyses in the mainstream media start with the assumption
that Kim Jong-un is correct in calling Trump a "dotard" and a "madman"
with his finger on the nuclear button. These opinions are idiotic,
but they are extremely common.
Donald Trump and the US are facing a stark situation. Doing nothing,
appeasement, leads to war. Therefore, something must be done.
Therefore, we can assume that Trump is following a strategy. I do not
for a second believe the idiotic statements by mainstream reports that
Trump's name-calling is random and uncontrolled. I believe that
Trump's actions, including his tweets, are all part of a strategy.
This is my opinion as to what that strategy is.
Part of the strategy is, of course, using strong sanctions, in the
hope that North Korea will end its nuclear program. I don't think
anyone serious believes that it will since, as Putin said, North Korea
would rather eat grass. However, it's possible that the sanctions and
threats of military action are really directed at the Chinese. It's
apparent that Russia and China have absolutely no objection to North
Korea having an arsenal of nuclear missiles targeting the United
States, since they won't be targeting China or Russia. However,
sanctions and military threats might convince the Chinese to force Kim
to stop his nuclear missile program. So that's part of the strategy.
But in the end, no one seriously believes that any of these diplomatic
strategies will work. If the US wants to prevent North Korea from
having an arsenal of nuclear weapons pointed at South Korea, Japan,
and the US, then military action will have to be taken. After
Monday's threat to shoot down an American bomber, the Pentagon said
that it is preparing military options for Trump.
Many analysts have said that no military action is possible without
putting millions of people in Seoul, the capital city of South Korea,
at risk. However, several days ago, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis
was asked whether there were any military options the United States
could take with North Korea that would not put Seoul at grave risk.
Mattis said: “Yes there are. But I will not go into details.” So I
don't know if Mattis was telling the truth, but whether he was or not,
some military action must be taken.
Several weeks ago, China said that if the US attacked North Korea
first, then China would join North Korea in fighting the US. But if
North Korea attacked first, and the US responded, then China would not
defend North Korea.
So my explanation for Trump's strategy is that he's trying to provoke
a military attack by North Korea. In 2010, the North Koreans attacked
South Korea by torpedoing the warship Cheonan and by shelling
Yeonpyeong Island, as described above. My belief is that Trump is
trying to provoke North Korea to do it again, by means of the
name-calling and by flying American warplanes just outside of North
Korea's airspace. If the North even tries to shoot down an American
warplane, then a counter-attack would be justified, and China has
promised not to defend North Korea.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're seeing a
typical pattern that historically has preceded any generational Crisis
war, where each side "crosses the line," and the other side responds
by "crossing the line" further, in a tit-for-tat ping pong of
responses and counter-responses, eventually leading to war. As
regular readers know, the world is headed for a Clash of Civilizations
world war, pitting America, India, Russia, Iran and the West against
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. Unfortunately, this
is inevitable, no matter what strategy the US pursues in Korea.
Fox News/AP and Reuters
Related Articles
- Trump's North Korea sanctions stop short of military blockade (22-Sep-2017)
- Will we have to accept a world in which North Korea is a nuclear power? (04-Sep-2017)
- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War (06-Sep-2017)
- Donald Trump's speech in Warsaw Poland evokes the Clash of Civilizations (07-Jul-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Ri Yong-ho,
Dana White, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
China, South Korea, Guam, Japan, Cheonan, Yeonpyeong Island
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
