10-08-2017, 10:43 PM
*** 9-Oct-17 World View -- Turkey announces major military operation in Syria's Idlib province
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey announces major military operation in Syria's Idlib province
****
![[Image: g171008b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171008b.jpg)
Idlib Syria today (AFP)
Turkey announced that it is beginning a military operation in Syria's
Idlib province. It will follow the terms of an agreement made in
Astana Kazakhstan by Turkey, Russia and Iran to create four
"de-escalation" zones in Syria with the objective of ending the war.
Turkey's military operations will be in the Idlib de-escalation zone,
which includes Idlib, Latakia, Aleppo and Hama, and is bordered by
Homs and Turkey itself.
The purpose of the operation will be to eliminate that al-Qaeda linked
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). However, Turkey has an additional
objective: To prevent the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG),
currently controlling the city of Afrin north of Idlib near Turkey's
border, from entering Idlib and thereby controlling a corridor in
northern Syria along Turkey's border.
The terms of the operation are as follows:
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the deployment on
Saturday and said that Turkey would not allow a "terror corridor" on
its border with Syria, referring to Kurdish objective to establish the
state of Rojava in northern Syria as a corridor along the border with
Turkey. Erdogan said:
<QUOTE>"There’s a serious operation in Syria’s Idlib today
and it will continue. For now Free Syria Army is carrying out the
operation there. Russia will be protecting outside the borders
(of the Idlib region) and we will handle inside.
Russia is supporting the operation from the air, and our armed
forces from inside Turkey’s borders."<END QUOTE>
The phrase "from inside Turkey's borders" is interpreted to mean that
Turkey's army will not (again) enter Syria, for the time being.
Erdogan also said that Turkey would not be "cornered by any threats
from Syria and Iraq." He referred to the three million Syria
refugees currently being hosted by Turkey, and said:
<QUOTE>"We are not intervening in the domestic affairs of any
country. We are just trying to secure our own home affairs... How
safe we can be when there is chaos in Syria? ... Can we escape
from the results of developments in Syria?"<END QUOTE>
There has already been a firefight between Turkey's troops and HTS.
Early on Sunday, Turkey's military was removing sections of a border
war between Turkey and Syria, and HTS began firing on a Turkish
bulldozer. Turkish artillery returned fire.
Another major Turkish objective is to prevent the chaos of more tens
of thousands of Syrian refugees fleeing into Turkey to escape bombing
by Syrian and Russian warplanes, and joining the millions of Syrian
refugees already in Turkey.
In a harbinger of things to come, on Sunday morning warplanes from the
Syrian regime military struck a marketplace within the Idlib
de-escalation zone, killing at least six people. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Anadolu (Ankara) and Reuters and Yeni Safak (Turkey)
****
**** Turkey's success in Idlib is far from certain
****
Idlib province is currently under control of al-Qaeda linked Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). However, there are also thousands of civilians,
including many women and children, who fled from Aleppo last year when
the Bashar al-Assad regime, with help from Russian airstrikes, was
trying to make Aleppo uninhabitable.
There have been two jihadist groups formed in Syria following the
brutal attacks by al-Assad's Shia/Alawite regime on peaceful Sunni
Muslim protesters, starting in 2011, particularly following al-Assad's
completely unprovoked attack on a Palestinian refugee camp in August
2011, killing many women and children.
That attack triggered the arrival of tens of thousands of young Sunni
Muslim jihadists from over 80 countries around the world, from
southeast Asia, from Africa and from Europe and Russia's Caucasus.
Those jihadists formed the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh). In the last year, ISIS has been the target of all the
other militias -- the Americans, the Syrians, the Russians, the Kurds,
the Iranians, Hezbollah, and the Iraqis. The presence of ISIS allowed
all these other entities to adopt a joint strategy of fighting ISIS,
while keeping out of each other's way.
One difference in Idlib is telling the good guys from the bad guys.
Since ISIS consists almost entirely of foreign fighters from over 80
countries, it's fairly easy to distinguish an ISIS fighter from an
ordinary Syrian. But HTS is consists of Sunni Muslim Syrians, as does
almost the entire population of Idlib province.
Even within the anti-Assad rebel groups, there are differences. HTS
was formed from the merger of a number of rebel militias, after Jabhat
al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) broke off its allegiance to al-Qaeda, since
many moderate rebel groups want to oppose al-Assad, but want nothing
to do with al-Qaeda. This has caused clashes between the former
al-Nusra militias with the moderate rebel militias, and there are
reports that the moderate rebel militias are leaving HTS. This hugely
complicates Turkey's job in evicting HTS, since it's far from clear
what HTS is.
The fight against ISIS is coming to an end, and now all the entities
now fighting ISIS are scrambling to gain control of as much territory
as possible. In eastern Syria, almost everyone wants control of all
the oil fields around Deir az-Zour.
In Idlib, Turkey wants to provide protection to all the Sunni Muslims
living there, especially since Bashar al-Assad considers them all to
be cockroaches to be exterminated. Although Idlib is a de-escalation
zone, Bashar al-Assad has made it clear that he considers the
de-escalation zones only a temporary solution, and when ISIS is
defeated he plans to turn his military around and take control of the
entire country, including Idlib. This scenario would result in the
population of Idlib fleeing into Turkey, which Erdogan has said he
will not permit.
Turkey has been promising for months that when its military operation
in Idlib was completed, and HTS was evicted, then Turkey would
build mass housing in Idlib, so that all the civilians will
stay there, and not try to flee to Turkey.
I believe you can see, Dear Reader, the huge conflicts that are
approaching as the fight against ISIS ends. Turkey will not tolerate
the destruction of Idlib, and Russia has agreed with Turkey about
that. Syria will not permit Turkey or anyone else to be in control of
Idlib, and Russia has agreed with al-Assad about that as well,
although it contradicts the previous agreement. Al-Assad promised
last year when he destroyed Aleppo and made it uninhabitable that
doing so would end the war, but there is no sign now that the war is
anywhere near an end. Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and AFP and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Hezbollah, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Deir Ezzor, Deir al-Zour, Deir ez-Zor, Deir Azzour,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Idlib, Hama, Latakia,
Russia, Iran, Astana, Kazakhstan, Latakia, Aleppo, Hama,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Kurds, Rajova, People’s Protection Units, YPG,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Afrin, Free Syrian Army, FSA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey announces major military operation in Syria's Idlib province
- Turkey's success in Idlib is far from certain
****
**** Turkey announces major military operation in Syria's Idlib province
****
Idlib Syria today (AFP)
Turkey announced that it is beginning a military operation in Syria's
Idlib province. It will follow the terms of an agreement made in
Astana Kazakhstan by Turkey, Russia and Iran to create four
"de-escalation" zones in Syria with the objective of ending the war.
Turkey's military operations will be in the Idlib de-escalation zone,
which includes Idlib, Latakia, Aleppo and Hama, and is bordered by
Homs and Turkey itself.
The purpose of the operation will be to eliminate that al-Qaeda linked
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). However, Turkey has an additional
objective: To prevent the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG),
currently controlling the city of Afrin north of Idlib near Turkey's
border, from entering Idlib and thereby controlling a corridor in
northern Syria along Turkey's border.
The terms of the operation are as follows:
- The ground troops will be from the Free Syrian Army (FSA),
which are moderate rebel militias opposed to Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad, and under Turkey's protection.
- Turkey's army will support the FSA on the ground with artillery
strikes.
- Turkey may send its own troops into Idlib to fight alongside the
FSA. In fact, Turkey has been massing tanks and special forces troops
along the border, without having entered Syria.
- Russia will support Turkey and the FSA with air strikes. Turkey's
air force will not be involved.
- After HTS has been evicted from Idlib, Turkey will send in
military monitors to implement a ceasefire in the de-escalation
zone.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the deployment on
Saturday and said that Turkey would not allow a "terror corridor" on
its border with Syria, referring to Kurdish objective to establish the
state of Rojava in northern Syria as a corridor along the border with
Turkey. Erdogan said:
<QUOTE>"There’s a serious operation in Syria’s Idlib today
and it will continue. For now Free Syria Army is carrying out the
operation there. Russia will be protecting outside the borders
(of the Idlib region) and we will handle inside.
Russia is supporting the operation from the air, and our armed
forces from inside Turkey’s borders."<END QUOTE>
The phrase "from inside Turkey's borders" is interpreted to mean that
Turkey's army will not (again) enter Syria, for the time being.
Erdogan also said that Turkey would not be "cornered by any threats
from Syria and Iraq." He referred to the three million Syria
refugees currently being hosted by Turkey, and said:
<QUOTE>"We are not intervening in the domestic affairs of any
country. We are just trying to secure our own home affairs... How
safe we can be when there is chaos in Syria? ... Can we escape
from the results of developments in Syria?"<END QUOTE>
There has already been a firefight between Turkey's troops and HTS.
Early on Sunday, Turkey's military was removing sections of a border
war between Turkey and Syria, and HTS began firing on a Turkish
bulldozer. Turkish artillery returned fire.
Another major Turkish objective is to prevent the chaos of more tens
of thousands of Syrian refugees fleeing into Turkey to escape bombing
by Syrian and Russian warplanes, and joining the millions of Syrian
refugees already in Turkey.
In a harbinger of things to come, on Sunday morning warplanes from the
Syrian regime military struck a marketplace within the Idlib
de-escalation zone, killing at least six people. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Anadolu (Ankara) and Reuters and Yeni Safak (Turkey)
****
**** Turkey's success in Idlib is far from certain
****
Idlib province is currently under control of al-Qaeda linked Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). However, there are also thousands of civilians,
including many women and children, who fled from Aleppo last year when
the Bashar al-Assad regime, with help from Russian airstrikes, was
trying to make Aleppo uninhabitable.
There have been two jihadist groups formed in Syria following the
brutal attacks by al-Assad's Shia/Alawite regime on peaceful Sunni
Muslim protesters, starting in 2011, particularly following al-Assad's
completely unprovoked attack on a Palestinian refugee camp in August
2011, killing many women and children.
That attack triggered the arrival of tens of thousands of young Sunni
Muslim jihadists from over 80 countries around the world, from
southeast Asia, from Africa and from Europe and Russia's Caucasus.
Those jihadists formed the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh). In the last year, ISIS has been the target of all the
other militias -- the Americans, the Syrians, the Russians, the Kurds,
the Iranians, Hezbollah, and the Iraqis. The presence of ISIS allowed
all these other entities to adopt a joint strategy of fighting ISIS,
while keeping out of each other's way.
One difference in Idlib is telling the good guys from the bad guys.
Since ISIS consists almost entirely of foreign fighters from over 80
countries, it's fairly easy to distinguish an ISIS fighter from an
ordinary Syrian. But HTS is consists of Sunni Muslim Syrians, as does
almost the entire population of Idlib province.
Even within the anti-Assad rebel groups, there are differences. HTS
was formed from the merger of a number of rebel militias, after Jabhat
al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) broke off its allegiance to al-Qaeda, since
many moderate rebel groups want to oppose al-Assad, but want nothing
to do with al-Qaeda. This has caused clashes between the former
al-Nusra militias with the moderate rebel militias, and there are
reports that the moderate rebel militias are leaving HTS. This hugely
complicates Turkey's job in evicting HTS, since it's far from clear
what HTS is.
The fight against ISIS is coming to an end, and now all the entities
now fighting ISIS are scrambling to gain control of as much territory
as possible. In eastern Syria, almost everyone wants control of all
the oil fields around Deir az-Zour.
In Idlib, Turkey wants to provide protection to all the Sunni Muslims
living there, especially since Bashar al-Assad considers them all to
be cockroaches to be exterminated. Although Idlib is a de-escalation
zone, Bashar al-Assad has made it clear that he considers the
de-escalation zones only a temporary solution, and when ISIS is
defeated he plans to turn his military around and take control of the
entire country, including Idlib. This scenario would result in the
population of Idlib fleeing into Turkey, which Erdogan has said he
will not permit.
Turkey has been promising for months that when its military operation
in Idlib was completed, and HTS was evicted, then Turkey would
build mass housing in Idlib, so that all the civilians will
stay there, and not try to flee to Turkey.
I believe you can see, Dear Reader, the huge conflicts that are
approaching as the fight against ISIS ends. Turkey will not tolerate
the destruction of Idlib, and Russia has agreed with Turkey about
that. Syria will not permit Turkey or anyone else to be in control of
Idlib, and Russia has agreed with al-Assad about that as well,
although it contradicts the previous agreement. Al-Assad promised
last year when he destroyed Aleppo and made it uninhabitable that
doing so would end the war, but there is no sign now that the war is
anywhere near an end. Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Sputnik News (Moscow) and AFP and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
- Syria's war resumes in full, as 'de-escalation' agreements unravel (06-Oct-2017)
- US and Iran headed for military confrontation in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria (09-Jun-2017)
- Syria's air force deliberately targets hospital in Aleppo, killing dozens (29-Apr-2016)
- From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Hezbollah, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Deir Ezzor, Deir al-Zour, Deir ez-Zor, Deir Azzour,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Idlib, Hama, Latakia,
Russia, Iran, Astana, Kazakhstan, Latakia, Aleppo, Hama,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Kurds, Rajova, People’s Protection Units, YPG,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Afrin, Free Syrian Army, FSA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
