10-12-2017, 10:08 PM
*** 13-Oct-17 World View -- Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Iraqi troops and tanks seen massing near Kirkuk, poised to attack Kurds
****
![[Image: g171012b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171012b.jpg)
A group of masked Hash Al-Shaabi forces (Iraqi Shia Muslim Popular Mobilization Units) seen near Kirkuk late Thursday (Kurdistan 24)
Iraqi forces along with Iranian-trained paramilitaries have been seen
on Friday morning massing near Kurdish-occupied Kirkuk in northeastern
Iraq. Iraq has rejected Kurdistan's independence referendum, and
oil-rich Kirkuk has become a flash point.
It's not known whether the massing of Iraqi forces is simply a show of
force, or is the prelude to a full-scale attack on Kirkuk. Kurdistan 24
Related: Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum (03-Oct-2017)
****
**** Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas announce unity agreement
****
Egypt announced on Thursday that the Palestinian factions
Fatah and Hamas had reached a reconciliation agreement,
as an outcome of the Egypt-sponsored reconciliation talks
being held in Cairo.
Thousands of Palestinians took to the streets across Gaza on Thursday
in celebration of the agreement, with loudspeakers on open cars
blasting national songs, youths dancing and hugging and many waving
Palestine and Egyptian flags.
As expected, the agreement did not even attempt to address the two
major issues splitting Fatah and Hamas:
As we pointed out yesterday,
the
average of Gaza's population is 16.9, and so the Izzadin Kassam
brigades is undoubtedly heavily populated with teenagers who wouldn't
be inclined to take orders from 82 year old Mahmoud Abbas anyway.
Nonetheless, this agreement was greeted with loud cheers
from Gaza civilians, because it promises respite from heavy
sanctions that have been imposed on Gaza by both Egypt and Fatah.
Egypt rarely opens the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt,
and so it's impossible for Palestinians to leave Gaza or for
supplies to be brought in. The agreement calls for the Rafah
crossing to be controlled by the Fatah-Hamas unity government.
The other sanctions had been imposed by Fatah in the form of cutting
the salaries of employees in Gaza, and cutting the electricity supply
to Gaza. The unity government will restore the salaries and
electricity.
The agreement supposedly transfers administrative control of Gaza to
Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA) as of December 1, subject to
further negotiations in November.
The agreement also stipulates that legislative, presidential and
national council elections should be conducted within one year of its
signing. It's worth remembering that the open rift between Hamas and
Fatah began in 2006 when Hamas resoundingly defeated Fatah in
legislative elections. If there's a presidential election, then it's
very likely that Mahmoud Abbas will be replaced by someone much
younger and much less willing to compromise, and much more willing to
fight a war with Israel.
Al Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters and BBC
Related: Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel (12-Oct-2017)
****
**** Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib in apparent truce with HTS
****
The first convoy of Turkey's military forces crossed into Syria's
Idlib province late on Thursday. This is the first deployment
following Saturday's announcement by Turkey of a major military operation
in Idlib province. The purpose
of the operation is to establish a "de-escalation zone," as agreed in
July by Turkey, Russia and Iran, meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan.
The primary objective of the de-escalation zone operation is to bring
peace to Idlib, by protecting Sunni Muslims from Bashar al-Assad's
forces and by keeping the different anti-Assad rebel groups from
fighting each other. I had been expected that the Turkish forces
would evict al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from Idlib in
order to reach this objective.
HTS was not part of the de-escalation deal and opposed it. But HTS
militias in the last few days have been seen escorting Turkish
reconnaissance teams into Idlib, suggesting that Turkey and HTS have
reached a peace agreement, or at least a ceasefire agreement, for the
time being.
So for the time being, Turkey's incursion into Idlib has these
objectives:
According to reports, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the head of HTS, is
deeply distrusted by moderate rebel groups (Failaq al-Sham, Nour
al-Din al-Zinki brigades, and Ahrar al-Sham), who are eager to
initiate a conflict with HTS.
Warplanes from Russia and al-Assad have been stepping up airstrikes on
Syrian civilians, including women and children, striking hospital and
schools. Civilians in Idlib, many of whom fled Aleppo, are
reluctantly accepting the need for Turkish forces. According to one
resident, "Turkey intervening may be the best solution to Syria's
situation because Russia and Assad will stop at nothing to destroy the
whole of Syria." Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters and Syria Deeply and Middle East Eye
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurdistan, Kirkuk,
Egypt, Palestine, Gaza, West Bank, Fatah, Hamas,
Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority,
Izzadin Kassam brigades, Israel,
Turkey, Syria, Idlib, Russia, Iran, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo,
Abu Mohammad al-Julani, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS,
Failaq al-Sham, Nour al-Din al-Zinki brigades, Ahrar al-Sham
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Iraqi troops and tanks seen massing near Kirkuk, poised to attack Kurds
- Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas announce unity agreement
- Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib in apparent truce with HTS
****
**** Iraqi troops and tanks seen massing near Kirkuk, poised to attack Kurds
****
A group of masked Hash Al-Shaabi forces (Iraqi Shia Muslim Popular Mobilization Units) seen near Kirkuk late Thursday (Kurdistan 24)
Iraqi forces along with Iranian-trained paramilitaries have been seen
on Friday morning massing near Kurdish-occupied Kirkuk in northeastern
Iraq. Iraq has rejected Kurdistan's independence referendum, and
oil-rich Kirkuk has become a flash point.
It's not known whether the massing of Iraqi forces is simply a show of
force, or is the prelude to a full-scale attack on Kirkuk. Kurdistan 24
Related: Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum (03-Oct-2017)
****
**** Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas announce unity agreement
****
Egypt announced on Thursday that the Palestinian factions
Fatah and Hamas had reached a reconciliation agreement,
as an outcome of the Egypt-sponsored reconciliation talks
being held in Cairo.
Thousands of Palestinians took to the streets across Gaza on Thursday
in celebration of the agreement, with loudspeakers on open cars
blasting national songs, youths dancing and hugging and many waving
Palestine and Egyptian flags.
As expected, the agreement did not even attempt to address the two
major issues splitting Fatah and Hamas:
- Hamas is still committed to the destruction of Israel,
while Fatah under Mahmoud Abbas is not, and wants a peace
agreement with Israel.
- Hamas still wants control of its armed wing, the Izzadin Kassam
brigades, with its huge cache of "resistance weapons," to be used in a
future war with Israel. Mahmoud Abbas rejects any unity agreement
that doesn't transfer control of Izzadin Kassam to Fatah.
As we pointed out yesterday,
the
average of Gaza's population is 16.9, and so the Izzadin Kassam
brigades is undoubtedly heavily populated with teenagers who wouldn't
be inclined to take orders from 82 year old Mahmoud Abbas anyway.
Nonetheless, this agreement was greeted with loud cheers
from Gaza civilians, because it promises respite from heavy
sanctions that have been imposed on Gaza by both Egypt and Fatah.
Egypt rarely opens the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt,
and so it's impossible for Palestinians to leave Gaza or for
supplies to be brought in. The agreement calls for the Rafah
crossing to be controlled by the Fatah-Hamas unity government.
The other sanctions had been imposed by Fatah in the form of cutting
the salaries of employees in Gaza, and cutting the electricity supply
to Gaza. The unity government will restore the salaries and
electricity.
The agreement supposedly transfers administrative control of Gaza to
Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA) as of December 1, subject to
further negotiations in November.
The agreement also stipulates that legislative, presidential and
national council elections should be conducted within one year of its
signing. It's worth remembering that the open rift between Hamas and
Fatah began in 2006 when Hamas resoundingly defeated Fatah in
legislative elections. If there's a presidential election, then it's
very likely that Mahmoud Abbas will be replaced by someone much
younger and much less willing to compromise, and much more willing to
fight a war with Israel.
Al Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters and BBC
Related: Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel (12-Oct-2017)
****
**** Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib in apparent truce with HTS
****
The first convoy of Turkey's military forces crossed into Syria's
Idlib province late on Thursday. This is the first deployment
following Saturday's announcement by Turkey of a major military operation
in Idlib province. The purpose
of the operation is to establish a "de-escalation zone," as agreed in
July by Turkey, Russia and Iran, meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan.
The primary objective of the de-escalation zone operation is to bring
peace to Idlib, by protecting Sunni Muslims from Bashar al-Assad's
forces and by keeping the different anti-Assad rebel groups from
fighting each other. I had been expected that the Turkish forces
would evict al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from Idlib in
order to reach this objective.
HTS was not part of the de-escalation deal and opposed it. But HTS
militias in the last few days have been seen escorting Turkish
reconnaissance teams into Idlib, suggesting that Turkey and HTS have
reached a peace agreement, or at least a ceasefire agreement, for the
time being.
So for the time being, Turkey's incursion into Idlib has these
objectives:
- To protect its borders from HTS militias
- To prevent the Kurdish based YPG forces from controlling
areas further west, and completing a corridor from Iraq to
the Mediterranean which it would then declare to be the
independent state of Rojava.
- To minimize refugee flows into Turkey from Idlib, which is
where they fled when Bashar al-Assad and Russia making Aleppo
uninhabitable.
- To protect civilians from airstrikes by Russian and
al-Assad warplanes.
- To create a protected buffer zone into which Syrian refugees
already in Turkey could be sent in order to return them to
Syria.
According to reports, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the head of HTS, is
deeply distrusted by moderate rebel groups (Failaq al-Sham, Nour
al-Din al-Zinki brigades, and Ahrar al-Sham), who are eager to
initiate a conflict with HTS.
Warplanes from Russia and al-Assad have been stepping up airstrikes on
Syrian civilians, including women and children, striking hospital and
schools. Civilians in Idlib, many of whom fled Aleppo, are
reluctantly accepting the need for Turkish forces. According to one
resident, "Turkey intervening may be the best solution to Syria's
situation because Russia and Assad will stop at nothing to destroy the
whole of Syria." Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters and Syria Deeply and Middle East Eye
Related Articles
- Turkey announces major military operation in Syria's Idlib province (09-Oct-2017)
- UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas (07-Oct-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurdistan, Kirkuk,
Egypt, Palestine, Gaza, West Bank, Fatah, Hamas,
Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority,
Izzadin Kassam brigades, Israel,
Turkey, Syria, Idlib, Russia, Iran, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo,
Abu Mohammad al-Julani, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS,
Failaq al-Sham, Nour al-Din al-Zinki brigades, Ahrar al-Sham
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
