10-14-2017, 10:17 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2017, 09:12 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 15-Oct-17 World View -- Armies and militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria increasingly turn on each other
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Mattis and Tillerson work to prevent Iraq vs Kurd military confrontation in Kirkuk
****
![[Image: g171014b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171014b.jpg)
Defaced Kurdistan flags at a former Peshmerga position now held by Iraqi forces on Friday (AFP)
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) says that Iraqi army troops
and fighters from the Shia Popular Mobilization Unit (PMU, Hashd
al-Shaabi) militias are massed on the border of the city of Kirkuk,
which has been controlled by the Kurdish Peshmerga militias since 2014,
when they evicted the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) from the city. There have already been some conflicts between
Iraqi troops and Peshmerga in villages south of Kirkuk in the last few
days.
The KRG ran an independence referendum on September 25, and the vote
among the Kurds for independence was above 90%. This referendum was
internationally condemned before, during and after the vote took
place because it created unrealistic expectations.
Now that the referendum has been successful, the Kurds want to be
rewarded for all they did in defeating ISIS. They want independence
and, in particular, they want to keep Kirkuk. They say they want it
for its symbolic value, but it's more likely that they want it because
it's sitting on a huge amount of oil. This oil is a big part of
Kurdistan's economy. It's currently going through a pipeline through
Turkey to the Black Sea, but Turkey, which doesn't want an independent
Kurdistan, is threatening to close the pipeline.
With Iraqi army and Shia militia troops massed on the Kirkuk border,
KRG says that Iraq's government has set a deadline of early Sunday
morning for the Peshmerga to withdraw from positions being held in
Kirkuk. As of this writing on Saturday evening ET, that deadline has
passed.
The United States is keeping close watch on the situation by means of
overflights. Both Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense
Secretary Jim Mattis have been urging both sides to keep focused on
fighting ISIS, not each other. Mattis said on Friday:
<QUOTE>"We have to work on this. The Secretary of State has
the lead, but my forces are integrated among these forces, and
they are working, too, to make certain we keep any potential for
conflict off the table. ...
We are trying to tone everything down and to figure out how we go
forward without losing sight of the enemy, and at the same time
recognizing that we have got to find a way to move forward.
Everybody stay focused on defeating ISIS. We can’t turn on each
other right now. We don’t want to go to a shooting
situation."<END QUOTE>
As everyone has been saying for months, all the various armies and
militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria would have nothing better to
do than start fighting each other, once ISIS was defeated. In Iraq,
ISIS has been evicted from Mosul and other major cities. The Kurds,
the Iraqi army and the Shia militias achieved a great victory, and now
they're going to celebrate by killing each other. AFP and Kurdistan 24 and Bloomberg and Rudaw (Kurdistan)
****
**** ISIS fighters permitted to leave Raqqa, Syria, with human shields
****
The eviction of ISIS from Raqqa, their former stronghold in Syria, is
almost complete. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
consisting mostly of Syrian Kurdish fighters, are permitting dozens of
buses to evacuate the remaining ISIS fighters and their families,
along with about 400 civilians to be used as human shields. The SDF,
backed by US warplanes, have been fighting ISIS in Raqqa.
According to the SDF, the buses will take the surrendered fighters
further east to Deir az-Zour province, much of which remains under
ISIS control.
The evacuation deal was pursued by the United States military as a way
to allow the SDF to secure the last parts of the city, without
requiring bloody house to house fighting that would kill hundreds of
civilians. According to a US-led coalition statement:
<QUOTE>"The arrangement is designed to minimize civilian
casualties and purportedly excludes foreign Daesh [ISIS]
terrorists as people trapped in the city continue to flee the
impending fall of Daesh's so-called capital.
People departing Raqqa under the arrangement are subject to search
and screening by Syrian Democratic Forces."<END QUOTE>
With ISIS defeated in both Iraq and Syria, the analyst Sami Hamdi,
editor of International Interest, gave a concise analysis of
what can be expected next, in an interview on Al-Jazeera (my
transcription):
<QUOTE>"In Iraq you have the Popular Mobilization Units
(PMUs) that terrify the Sunni population, who were marginalized in
the first place, and whose villages constituted the haven in which
ISIS operates.
In Syria you still have a dictatorial regime hell bent on crushing
its people's democratic desires.
You have the Kurdish who are pursuing independence. You have the
Russians who are terrified of an American-leaning state. You have
the Iranians who wish to establish hegemony in the region.
So we don't really see any reintegration. On the contrary, we see
humanitarian crises in cities such as Mosul. We will see a
humanitarian crisis in cities such as Raqqa.
There is nothing to suggest that there will be a reintegration of
these communities into mainstream society. And this leads to one
outcome -- a division within the region, new borders, a modern
Kurdistan, and other areas seeking their own independent
autonomous states.
When we talk about the defeat of ISIS we should be wary. ISIS on
the ground will be defeated. Losing Raqqa will be a big blow to
them. But ISIS in the political discourse will continue.
Because as long as there is an ISIS in the mainstream media and
political discourse, Iran can justify keeping the Revolutionary
Guards in Syria.
As long as there is an ISIS in Syria, Turkey can justify military
force to restrict Kurdish movement.
As long as there is an ISIS, Russia can continue to keep its
troops in Syria, on the pretext of fighting terrorism.
As long as there is an ISIS, the Popular Mobilization Units can
claim legitimacy to stay as an ultra-violent military force
outside of military control.
So ISIS will be defeated militarily, it might resort to guerrilla
tactics, but politically in the discourse, it's not quite time for
the international powers to shelve the topic of ISIS and pursue
other interests."<END QUOTE>
In neighboring Deir az-Zour province, the army of the Syrian regime
captured the ISIS stronghold of Mayadeen. Telegraph (London) and CNN
****
**** Syria demands 'immediately' pullout of Turkey's forces from Idlib province
****
As we've been reporting in the last few days, Turkey has deployed
tanks and troops into Syria's Idlib province, with the objective of
bringing peace to the Idlib "de-escalation zone." Turkey's incursion
is part of an agreement reached with Iran and Russia in Astana,
Kazakhstan, in July.
However, now Syria's Foreign Ministry is demanding that Turkey
withdraw its forces, something that almost certainly result in renewed
fighting in Idlib, particularly between the al-Qaeda linked Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other anti-Assad Sunni rebel militias, many
of whom are opposed to the presence of HTS.
According to the Syrian statement:
<QUOTE>"Syria condemns in the strongest terms the incursion
of units of the Turkish army in Idlib province, which constitutes
a flagrant aggression against the sovereignty and security of
Syrian territory.
The Turkish aggression is not tied in any way with the
understandings that were reached between the guarantor states in
the Astana process, but constitutes a violation of these
understandings."<END QUOTE>
The Syrian government has in the past expressed opposition to the
entire "de-escalation zone" agreement, but the agreement was forced on
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad by Russia's government. Al-Assad
has announced that he expects to regain control of all of Syria, and
few people doubt that if given the opportunity, he would like to bomb
all of Idlib province into oblivion, killing hundreds of thousands of
innocent civilians, including women and children, as he did last year
in Aleppo.
The Astana agreement is supposed to bring about a ceasefire throughout
Syria, and bring peace. However, as the saying goes, "Peace is that
brief, glorious moment in history when everybody stands around
reloading."
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Anadolu (Ankara) and Deutsche Welle and Russia Today
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG,
Popular Mobilization Unit, PMU, Kirkuk, Mosul, Peshmerga,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Rex Tillerson, Jim Mattis, Sami Hamdi, Mayadeen,
Syria, Raqqa, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF,
Deir Ezzor, Deir al-Zour, Deir ez-Zor, Deir Azzour,
Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Idlib, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Mattis and Tillerson work to prevent Iraq vs Kurd military confrontation in Kirkuk
- ISIS fighters permitted to leave Raqqa, Syria, with human shields
- Syria demands 'immediately' pullout of Turkey's forces from Idlib province
****
**** Mattis and Tillerson work to prevent Iraq vs Kurd military confrontation in Kirkuk
****
Defaced Kurdistan flags at a former Peshmerga position now held by Iraqi forces on Friday (AFP)
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) says that Iraqi army troops
and fighters from the Shia Popular Mobilization Unit (PMU, Hashd
al-Shaabi) militias are massed on the border of the city of Kirkuk,
which has been controlled by the Kurdish Peshmerga militias since 2014,
when they evicted the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) from the city. There have already been some conflicts between
Iraqi troops and Peshmerga in villages south of Kirkuk in the last few
days.
The KRG ran an independence referendum on September 25, and the vote
among the Kurds for independence was above 90%. This referendum was
internationally condemned before, during and after the vote took
place because it created unrealistic expectations.
Now that the referendum has been successful, the Kurds want to be
rewarded for all they did in defeating ISIS. They want independence
and, in particular, they want to keep Kirkuk. They say they want it
for its symbolic value, but it's more likely that they want it because
it's sitting on a huge amount of oil. This oil is a big part of
Kurdistan's economy. It's currently going through a pipeline through
Turkey to the Black Sea, but Turkey, which doesn't want an independent
Kurdistan, is threatening to close the pipeline.
With Iraqi army and Shia militia troops massed on the Kirkuk border,
KRG says that Iraq's government has set a deadline of early Sunday
morning for the Peshmerga to withdraw from positions being held in
Kirkuk. As of this writing on Saturday evening ET, that deadline has
passed.
The United States is keeping close watch on the situation by means of
overflights. Both Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense
Secretary Jim Mattis have been urging both sides to keep focused on
fighting ISIS, not each other. Mattis said on Friday:
<QUOTE>"We have to work on this. The Secretary of State has
the lead, but my forces are integrated among these forces, and
they are working, too, to make certain we keep any potential for
conflict off the table. ...
We are trying to tone everything down and to figure out how we go
forward without losing sight of the enemy, and at the same time
recognizing that we have got to find a way to move forward.
Everybody stay focused on defeating ISIS. We can’t turn on each
other right now. We don’t want to go to a shooting
situation."<END QUOTE>
As everyone has been saying for months, all the various armies and
militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria would have nothing better to
do than start fighting each other, once ISIS was defeated. In Iraq,
ISIS has been evicted from Mosul and other major cities. The Kurds,
the Iraqi army and the Shia militias achieved a great victory, and now
they're going to celebrate by killing each other. AFP and Kurdistan 24 and Bloomberg and Rudaw (Kurdistan)
****
**** ISIS fighters permitted to leave Raqqa, Syria, with human shields
****
The eviction of ISIS from Raqqa, their former stronghold in Syria, is
almost complete. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
consisting mostly of Syrian Kurdish fighters, are permitting dozens of
buses to evacuate the remaining ISIS fighters and their families,
along with about 400 civilians to be used as human shields. The SDF,
backed by US warplanes, have been fighting ISIS in Raqqa.
According to the SDF, the buses will take the surrendered fighters
further east to Deir az-Zour province, much of which remains under
ISIS control.
The evacuation deal was pursued by the United States military as a way
to allow the SDF to secure the last parts of the city, without
requiring bloody house to house fighting that would kill hundreds of
civilians. According to a US-led coalition statement:
<QUOTE>"The arrangement is designed to minimize civilian
casualties and purportedly excludes foreign Daesh [ISIS]
terrorists as people trapped in the city continue to flee the
impending fall of Daesh's so-called capital.
People departing Raqqa under the arrangement are subject to search
and screening by Syrian Democratic Forces."<END QUOTE>
With ISIS defeated in both Iraq and Syria, the analyst Sami Hamdi,
editor of International Interest, gave a concise analysis of
what can be expected next, in an interview on Al-Jazeera (my
transcription):
<QUOTE>"In Iraq you have the Popular Mobilization Units
(PMUs) that terrify the Sunni population, who were marginalized in
the first place, and whose villages constituted the haven in which
ISIS operates.
In Syria you still have a dictatorial regime hell bent on crushing
its people's democratic desires.
You have the Kurdish who are pursuing independence. You have the
Russians who are terrified of an American-leaning state. You have
the Iranians who wish to establish hegemony in the region.
So we don't really see any reintegration. On the contrary, we see
humanitarian crises in cities such as Mosul. We will see a
humanitarian crisis in cities such as Raqqa.
There is nothing to suggest that there will be a reintegration of
these communities into mainstream society. And this leads to one
outcome -- a division within the region, new borders, a modern
Kurdistan, and other areas seeking their own independent
autonomous states.
When we talk about the defeat of ISIS we should be wary. ISIS on
the ground will be defeated. Losing Raqqa will be a big blow to
them. But ISIS in the political discourse will continue.
Because as long as there is an ISIS in the mainstream media and
political discourse, Iran can justify keeping the Revolutionary
Guards in Syria.
As long as there is an ISIS in Syria, Turkey can justify military
force to restrict Kurdish movement.
As long as there is an ISIS, Russia can continue to keep its
troops in Syria, on the pretext of fighting terrorism.
As long as there is an ISIS, the Popular Mobilization Units can
claim legitimacy to stay as an ultra-violent military force
outside of military control.
So ISIS will be defeated militarily, it might resort to guerrilla
tactics, but politically in the discourse, it's not quite time for
the international powers to shelve the topic of ISIS and pursue
other interests."<END QUOTE>
In neighboring Deir az-Zour province, the army of the Syrian regime
captured the ISIS stronghold of Mayadeen. Telegraph (London) and CNN
****
**** Syria demands 'immediately' pullout of Turkey's forces from Idlib province
****
As we've been reporting in the last few days, Turkey has deployed
tanks and troops into Syria's Idlib province, with the objective of
bringing peace to the Idlib "de-escalation zone." Turkey's incursion
is part of an agreement reached with Iran and Russia in Astana,
Kazakhstan, in July.
However, now Syria's Foreign Ministry is demanding that Turkey
withdraw its forces, something that almost certainly result in renewed
fighting in Idlib, particularly between the al-Qaeda linked Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other anti-Assad Sunni rebel militias, many
of whom are opposed to the presence of HTS.
According to the Syrian statement:
<QUOTE>"Syria condemns in the strongest terms the incursion
of units of the Turkish army in Idlib province, which constitutes
a flagrant aggression against the sovereignty and security of
Syrian territory.
The Turkish aggression is not tied in any way with the
understandings that were reached between the guarantor states in
the Astana process, but constitutes a violation of these
understandings."<END QUOTE>
The Syrian government has in the past expressed opposition to the
entire "de-escalation zone" agreement, but the agreement was forced on
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad by Russia's government. Al-Assad
has announced that he expects to regain control of all of Syria, and
few people doubt that if given the opportunity, he would like to bomb
all of Idlib province into oblivion, killing hundreds of thousands of
innocent civilians, including women and children, as he did last year
in Aleppo.
The Astana agreement is supposed to bring about a ceasefire throughout
Syria, and bring peace. However, as the saying goes, "Peace is that
brief, glorious moment in history when everybody stands around
reloading."
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Anadolu (Ankara) and Deutsche Welle and Russia Today
Related Articles
- Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib (13-Oct-2017)
- Tensions between Turks and Iraqi Kurds grow as another ISIS stronghold falls (11-Oct-2017)
- Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum (03-Oct-2017)
- With ceasefire, American forces become more deeply involved in Syria's civil war (11-Jul-2017)
- UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas (07-Oct-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG,
Popular Mobilization Unit, PMU, Kirkuk, Mosul, Peshmerga,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Rex Tillerson, Jim Mattis, Sami Hamdi, Mayadeen,
Syria, Raqqa, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF,
Deir Ezzor, Deir al-Zour, Deir ez-Zor, Deir Azzour,
Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Idlib, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
