10-29-2017, 09:27 PM
*** 30-Oct-17 World View -- India begins shipping wheat to Afghanistan through Iran's Chabahar port
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** India begins shipping wheat to Afghanistan through Iran's Chabahar port
****
![[Image: g160524b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160524b.jpg)
Map displaying the trade routes related to the Chabahar and Gwadar ports. Purple lines show China's trade routes through Gwadar, while red lines show India's planned trade routes through Chabahar. (Defence.pk)
A long-awaited "historic" first occurred on Sunday, when India shipped
its first consignment of wheat to Afghanistan through Iran's Chabahar
port. The shipment travels by sea from Mumbai, India, to Chabahar,
and then overland through Iran to Afghanistan.
The agreement for India to invest $500 million to increase the size of
the Chabahar port was signed in Tehran in May of last year, in a
signing ceremony attended by the leaders of Iran, Afghanistan and
India. Sunday's shipment was more symbolic than otherwise, since the
port will take at least another year to be fully functional.
The shortest overland route from India to Afghanistan is, of course,
through Pakistan, but in December 2015 Pakistan decreed that Indian
trucks would no longer be permitted to travel overland to Afghanistan.
Pakistan required India to follow a complex route shipping goods by
sea to Karachi, where they would be loaded onto Pakistani trucks for
overland delivery to Afghanistan.
The Chabahar is also being developed in competition to Pakistan's
Gwadar port, which is receiving heavy investment from China as part of
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The purple lines in the
map above show China's traditional trade routes across the sea, using
China's "String of Pearls" port facilities (purple stars), while the
red lines show the trade routes being planned using Iran's Chabahar
port.
India and Pakistan, of course, have very poor relations. India is
very concerned about China's heavy investment in Pakistan in the CPEC
program. In return, Pakistan is very concerned about the fact that
India is also investing heavily in Afghanistan's infrastructure,
building on the relationship between Afghanistan and India at
Pakistan's expense.
As regular readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China,
Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the
"allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Pakistan Today and Pajhwok (Afghanistan) and The Hindu and Livemint (India, 10-Dec-2015)
****
**** In retaliation, Afghanistan bans entry of Pakistan trucks
****
Much of the competition between the Chabahar and Gwadar ports is
related to strategic military planning in anticipation of the coming
war between India and Pakistan, but a lot of it also has the more
prosaic objective of providing jobs for truck drivers.
Pakistan's December 2015 decree forbidding Indian trucks from
traveling overland through Pakistan to Afghanistan had the effect of
causing Indian truck drivers to lose jobs and Pakistani truck drivers
to gain jobs, since shipments from India had to come through
Pakistan's Karachi port, and there loaded onto Pakistani trucks for
overland delivery into Afghanistan.
In addition, in recent years, Afghanistan trucks have not been
allowed to enter Pakistan, although at one time they were
permitted to carry goods overland to either the port of Karachi
or to the border with India.
On Sunday, Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani issued a
decree forbidding Pakistani trucks from entering Afghanistan.
According to Afghanistan's transport ministry:
<QUOTE>"The Afghanistan and Pakistan Trade Agreement (APTA)
has expired. Before this Pakistan did now allow Afghan trucks to
enter its territory. So we do the same and after this, Pakistani
trucks will be unloaded at borders and Afghan trucks will carry
the goods to Hairatan and Shir Khan ports."<END QUOTE>
Afghanistan trucking company execs were delighted. One said, "By this
move lots of people will get job opportunities and the transit
companies will also get work." Another said, "Pakistani trucks go to
every part of our country, but our trucks are not allowed to enter
Pakistan. We want the government to do the same to Pakistan."
Apparently anticipating this decree, Pakistan has recently tried to
head it off by offering to negotiate with India on the terms of a new
transport deal. However, India turned down the offer, according to an
Indian government official who said, "It wasn’t a real offer, as far
as India sees it." Tolo News (Afghanistan) and The Hindu
****
**** Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) - conduit of smuggling
****
The Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) was
originally signed in 1950, and has undergone numerous changes over the
years. The original purpose was to permit land-locked Afghanistan to
import goods through Pakistan's Karachi port, without the Pakistan
authorities charging customs duties on the goods, since they simply
passed through Pakistan. The agreement also allowed Afghanistan
trucks to travel overland to India, though that is no longer
permitted.
India has asked to be included as part of the APTTA agreement, and to
allow its trucks to deliver goods to Afghanistan through Pakistan.
Pakistan has refused for several reasons, two of which have already
been given: for strategic military reasons, and to prevent Indian
truck drivers from taking jobs from Pakistani truck drivers.
However, there's a third reason, having to do with smuggling
and corruption.
There's evidence that something like 50% of the goods currently
being imported under APTTA -- such as cotton goods from China,
or vegetable fats and oils from Indonesia and Malaysia -- never
reach Afghanistan. Instead, corrupt Customs Officials permit
them to be unloaded within Pakistan for sale there, evading
customs duties.
These foreign goods flood into Pakistan in competition with locally
produced goods, and the losses in customs duties from smuggling was
estimated to be $35 billion from 2001-2009.
One figure estimates that APTTA accounts for 75% of an estimated $5
billion worth of smuggled goods entering Pakistan. Some other figures
estimate that around 40% of transit goods do not cross the Pak-Afghan
border, or they re-enter into Pakistan from Afghanistan. China
envisions its trade to increase by more $1 trillion over a
decade. Even a small percentage of that volume of trade smuggling into
Pakistan would be crippling to its economy. Business Recorder (Pakistan) and Business Recorder
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Iran, Pakistan, China, Chabahar, Gwadar,
Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, Karachi, Caspian Corridor, New Silk Road,
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement, APTTA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- India begins shipping wheat to Afghanistan through Iran's Chabahar port
- In retaliation, Afghanistan bans entry of Pakistan trucks
- Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) - conduit of smuggling
****
**** India begins shipping wheat to Afghanistan through Iran's Chabahar port
****
Map displaying the trade routes related to the Chabahar and Gwadar ports. Purple lines show China's trade routes through Gwadar, while red lines show India's planned trade routes through Chabahar. (Defence.pk)
A long-awaited "historic" first occurred on Sunday, when India shipped
its first consignment of wheat to Afghanistan through Iran's Chabahar
port. The shipment travels by sea from Mumbai, India, to Chabahar,
and then overland through Iran to Afghanistan.
The agreement for India to invest $500 million to increase the size of
the Chabahar port was signed in Tehran in May of last year, in a
signing ceremony attended by the leaders of Iran, Afghanistan and
India. Sunday's shipment was more symbolic than otherwise, since the
port will take at least another year to be fully functional.
The shortest overland route from India to Afghanistan is, of course,
through Pakistan, but in December 2015 Pakistan decreed that Indian
trucks would no longer be permitted to travel overland to Afghanistan.
Pakistan required India to follow a complex route shipping goods by
sea to Karachi, where they would be loaded onto Pakistani trucks for
overland delivery to Afghanistan.
The Chabahar is also being developed in competition to Pakistan's
Gwadar port, which is receiving heavy investment from China as part of
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The purple lines in the
map above show China's traditional trade routes across the sea, using
China's "String of Pearls" port facilities (purple stars), while the
red lines show the trade routes being planned using Iran's Chabahar
port.
India and Pakistan, of course, have very poor relations. India is
very concerned about China's heavy investment in Pakistan in the CPEC
program. In return, Pakistan is very concerned about the fact that
India is also investing heavily in Afghanistan's infrastructure,
building on the relationship between Afghanistan and India at
Pakistan's expense.
As regular readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China,
Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the
"allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Pakistan Today and Pajhwok (Afghanistan) and The Hindu and Livemint (India, 10-Dec-2015)
****
**** In retaliation, Afghanistan bans entry of Pakistan trucks
****
Much of the competition between the Chabahar and Gwadar ports is
related to strategic military planning in anticipation of the coming
war between India and Pakistan, but a lot of it also has the more
prosaic objective of providing jobs for truck drivers.
Pakistan's December 2015 decree forbidding Indian trucks from
traveling overland through Pakistan to Afghanistan had the effect of
causing Indian truck drivers to lose jobs and Pakistani truck drivers
to gain jobs, since shipments from India had to come through
Pakistan's Karachi port, and there loaded onto Pakistani trucks for
overland delivery into Afghanistan.
In addition, in recent years, Afghanistan trucks have not been
allowed to enter Pakistan, although at one time they were
permitted to carry goods overland to either the port of Karachi
or to the border with India.
On Sunday, Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani issued a
decree forbidding Pakistani trucks from entering Afghanistan.
According to Afghanistan's transport ministry:
<QUOTE>"The Afghanistan and Pakistan Trade Agreement (APTA)
has expired. Before this Pakistan did now allow Afghan trucks to
enter its territory. So we do the same and after this, Pakistani
trucks will be unloaded at borders and Afghan trucks will carry
the goods to Hairatan and Shir Khan ports."<END QUOTE>
Afghanistan trucking company execs were delighted. One said, "By this
move lots of people will get job opportunities and the transit
companies will also get work." Another said, "Pakistani trucks go to
every part of our country, but our trucks are not allowed to enter
Pakistan. We want the government to do the same to Pakistan."
Apparently anticipating this decree, Pakistan has recently tried to
head it off by offering to negotiate with India on the terms of a new
transport deal. However, India turned down the offer, according to an
Indian government official who said, "It wasn’t a real offer, as far
as India sees it." Tolo News (Afghanistan) and The Hindu
****
**** Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) - conduit of smuggling
****
The Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) was
originally signed in 1950, and has undergone numerous changes over the
years. The original purpose was to permit land-locked Afghanistan to
import goods through Pakistan's Karachi port, without the Pakistan
authorities charging customs duties on the goods, since they simply
passed through Pakistan. The agreement also allowed Afghanistan
trucks to travel overland to India, though that is no longer
permitted.
India has asked to be included as part of the APTTA agreement, and to
allow its trucks to deliver goods to Afghanistan through Pakistan.
Pakistan has refused for several reasons, two of which have already
been given: for strategic military reasons, and to prevent Indian
truck drivers from taking jobs from Pakistani truck drivers.
However, there's a third reason, having to do with smuggling
and corruption.
There's evidence that something like 50% of the goods currently
being imported under APTTA -- such as cotton goods from China,
or vegetable fats and oils from Indonesia and Malaysia -- never
reach Afghanistan. Instead, corrupt Customs Officials permit
them to be unloaded within Pakistan for sale there, evading
customs duties.
These foreign goods flood into Pakistan in competition with locally
produced goods, and the losses in customs duties from smuggling was
estimated to be $35 billion from 2001-2009.
One figure estimates that APTTA accounts for 75% of an estimated $5
billion worth of smuggled goods entering Pakistan. Some other figures
estimate that around 40% of transit goods do not cross the Pak-Afghan
border, or they re-enter into Pakistan from Afghanistan. China
envisions its trade to increase by more $1 trillion over a
decade. Even a small percentage of that volume of trade smuggling into
Pakistan would be crippling to its economy. Business Recorder (Pakistan) and Business Recorder
Related Articles
- Iran-India sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal to counter Pakistan-China (25-May-2016)
- China launches 'One Belt One Road', raising objections and violent protests (14-May-2017)
- Massive China-Pakistan CPEC energy project said to end energy crisis 'soon' (23-Mar-2017)
- Azerbaijan becomes the hub of the Caspian Trade Corridor, part of the new Silk Road (21-Jan-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Iran, Pakistan, China, Chabahar, Gwadar,
Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, Karachi, Caspian Corridor, New Silk Road,
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement, APTTA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
