10-31-2017, 10:32 PM
*** 1-Nov-17 World View -- Chinese geologists warn of looming nuclear disaster from North Korean tests
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China and South Korea reach an agreement on THAAD missile defense system
****
![[Image: g171031b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171031b.jpg)
Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha in National Assembly announces that South Korea would not pursue additional THAAD anti-missile deployments (The Hankyoreh)
In a surprise announcement, China agreed to remove the harsh economic
sanctions that it had imposed on South Korea in anger over South
Korea's deployment of America's advanced Terminal High Altitude Area
Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system.
In July of last year, South Korea's President Park Geun-hye announced
her decision to deploy the THAAD system on South Korean soil. This
was specifically a reaction to ballistic missile and nuclear threats
from North Korea, but it infuriated China because THAAD's powerful
radar could also give early warning to the United States of a
pre-emptive missile attack by China on the United States.
Early this year, news broke that the Lotte Group, a South Korean
multinational conglomerate, had agreed to a land swap that would allow
THAAD to be deployed on a piece of land previously owned by the
company. The enraged Chinese imposed harsh economic sanctions,
particularly targeting Lotte Department Stores in China and South
Korea with a boycott.
The economic sanctions have been devastating for South Korea's
economy, banning South Korean goods for sale in China, banning South
Korean pop stars and entertainers, and banning travel agencies from
selling packaged tours to South Korea.
Despite the sanctions, the first THAAD deployments began in March,
with two launchers.
South Korea's new president Moon Jae-in took office in May, after an
election campaign promising to end THAAD deployment, and to develop
closer ties with North Korea. But North Korea repudiated Moon's
overture, conducting a new series of ballistic missile tests. As a
result, Moon abruptly reversed policy and approved the deployment of
four more THAAD launchers.
So it was unexpected that South Korea and China issued a statement on
Tuesday that "The two sides attach great importance to the Korea-China
relationship," and that they would establish normal relations as
quickly as possible.
According to China's Foreign Ministry at a press conference on
Tuesday:
<QUOTE>"China's position on the THAAD issue has been clear
and consistent, which remains unchanged. We have noted that the
ROK stated publicly that the ROK [Republic of Korea - South Korea]
will not join the US anti-missile system, develop the ROK-US-Japan
security cooperation into a tripartite military alliance or make
additional deployment of the THAAD system, and the current THAAD
deployment in the ROK will not undermine China's strategic
security interests. We hope that the ROK will match word to deed
and follow through on these remarks to properly handle the
relevant issue.
Properly handing the THAAD issue and removing the obstacles to
China-ROK relations are the shared aspiration of the two countries
and conform to the common interests of the two sides, we hope the
two sides can jointly work to bring the bilateral relations back
to the track of normal development."<END QUOTE>
I find this to be a very strange statement, because the wording
implies low expectations that the détente between the two countries
will succeed. The statement does not explicitly say that China is
lifting its economic sanctions, and it only expresses hope that South
Korea will not develop a closer military alliance with the United
States -- in particular that no more THAAD launchers will be deployed.
There was one more Q&A at the press conference that I found strange:
<QUOTE>"Q: China said several times that the people-to-people
and cultural exchange calls for public support. As the ROK and
China reached agreement, what change does China expect to see in
public opinion?
A: As we all can see, for some time, the feelings and relations
between the Chinese and ROK people have been affected by the THAAD
issue. We hope that the two sides can properly handle the THAAD
issue and bring the normal exchange and cooperation in various
fields back to the track of normal development. We believe this is
of positive significance to the change of public opinion in the
two countries."<END QUOTE>
The answer implies that bad feelings and relations between the peoples
of China and South Korea were caused by the THAAD issue. From the
point of view of Generational Dynamics, the most likely explanation is
that bad feelings and relations between the Chinese and South Koreans
have been growing for some time, and that the THAAD was just a trigger
for open hostility. This view is supported by e-mail exchanges that
I've had with readers in the past indicating that there is extreme
hostility between Chinese and South Koreans. It seems unlikely that
Tuesday's agreement to improve relations is going to do much to change
these bad feelings and relations in the future. Business Insider and China's Foreign Ministry and The Hankyoreh (Seoul) and Global Times (Beijing)
Related Articles
****
**** Chinese geologists warn of looming nuclear disaster from North Korean tests
****
There have been reports that 200 North Korean workers were killed in a
series of tunnel collapses on October 10 at the main North Korean
nuclear testing site at Mount Mantap. These reports come from a
single unverified North Korean report, and are doubted by some
analysts.
However, what is apparently certain is that senior Chinese nuclear
scientists and geologists are saying that any further nuclear bomb
tests could risk a huge nuclear disaster that would affect both North
Korea and China.
The problem is that Mount Mantap, where North Korea has conducted five
underground nuclear tests, is now in danger of collapsing completely,
releasing huge amounts of radiation and nuclear debris that would
affect large parts of northeastern China.
The warnings have been delivered directly to North Korean scientists
by nuclear scientists at the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of
Geology and Geophysics. They warned North Korea that further nuclear
tests could blow the top off Mount Mantap and spark a potential
catastrophic collapse at the nuclear testing site, resulting in
radiation releases and other forms of contamination. The warnings
were summarized by an unnamed researcher at Peking University:
<QUOTE>"China cannot sit and wait until the site
implodes. Our instruments can detect nuclear fallout when it
arrives, but it will be too late by then. There will be public
panic and anger at the government for not taking action.
Maybe the North Koreans themselves have realized that the site
cannot take another blow. If they still want to do it, they have
to do it somewhere else."<END QUOTE>
The Chinese geologists delivered the warnings to the North Koreans on
September 20. Two days later, on September 22, North Korean Foreign
Minister Ri Yong-ho at the United Nations said:
<QUOTE>"It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb
in the Pacific. We have no idea about what actions could be taken
as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong-un."<END QUOTE>
This would, of course, be equally disastrous, as the explosion could
affect any aircraft or sea vessels in the area, and the radiation
could be carried by the winds to any country bordering the Pacific.
News Corp Australia and South China Morning Post and Chosun (Seoul)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, North Korea, South Korea,
Kang Kyung-wha, Park Geun-hye, Lotte Group, Moon Jae-in,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
Mount Mantap, Peking University, Ri Yong-ho,
Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Geology and Geophysics
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China and South Korea reach an agreement on THAAD missile defense system
- Chinese geologists warn of looming nuclear disaster from North Korean tests
****
**** China and South Korea reach an agreement on THAAD missile defense system
****
Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha in National Assembly announces that South Korea would not pursue additional THAAD anti-missile deployments (The Hankyoreh)
In a surprise announcement, China agreed to remove the harsh economic
sanctions that it had imposed on South Korea in anger over South
Korea's deployment of America's advanced Terminal High Altitude Area
Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system.
In July of last year, South Korea's President Park Geun-hye announced
her decision to deploy the THAAD system on South Korean soil. This
was specifically a reaction to ballistic missile and nuclear threats
from North Korea, but it infuriated China because THAAD's powerful
radar could also give early warning to the United States of a
pre-emptive missile attack by China on the United States.
Early this year, news broke that the Lotte Group, a South Korean
multinational conglomerate, had agreed to a land swap that would allow
THAAD to be deployed on a piece of land previously owned by the
company. The enraged Chinese imposed harsh economic sanctions,
particularly targeting Lotte Department Stores in China and South
Korea with a boycott.
The economic sanctions have been devastating for South Korea's
economy, banning South Korean goods for sale in China, banning South
Korean pop stars and entertainers, and banning travel agencies from
selling packaged tours to South Korea.
Despite the sanctions, the first THAAD deployments began in March,
with two launchers.
South Korea's new president Moon Jae-in took office in May, after an
election campaign promising to end THAAD deployment, and to develop
closer ties with North Korea. But North Korea repudiated Moon's
overture, conducting a new series of ballistic missile tests. As a
result, Moon abruptly reversed policy and approved the deployment of
four more THAAD launchers.
So it was unexpected that South Korea and China issued a statement on
Tuesday that "The two sides attach great importance to the Korea-China
relationship," and that they would establish normal relations as
quickly as possible.
According to China's Foreign Ministry at a press conference on
Tuesday:
<QUOTE>"China's position on the THAAD issue has been clear
and consistent, which remains unchanged. We have noted that the
ROK stated publicly that the ROK [Republic of Korea - South Korea]
will not join the US anti-missile system, develop the ROK-US-Japan
security cooperation into a tripartite military alliance or make
additional deployment of the THAAD system, and the current THAAD
deployment in the ROK will not undermine China's strategic
security interests. We hope that the ROK will match word to deed
and follow through on these remarks to properly handle the
relevant issue.
Properly handing the THAAD issue and removing the obstacles to
China-ROK relations are the shared aspiration of the two countries
and conform to the common interests of the two sides, we hope the
two sides can jointly work to bring the bilateral relations back
to the track of normal development."<END QUOTE>
I find this to be a very strange statement, because the wording
implies low expectations that the détente between the two countries
will succeed. The statement does not explicitly say that China is
lifting its economic sanctions, and it only expresses hope that South
Korea will not develop a closer military alliance with the United
States -- in particular that no more THAAD launchers will be deployed.
There was one more Q&A at the press conference that I found strange:
<QUOTE>"Q: China said several times that the people-to-people
and cultural exchange calls for public support. As the ROK and
China reached agreement, what change does China expect to see in
public opinion?
A: As we all can see, for some time, the feelings and relations
between the Chinese and ROK people have been affected by the THAAD
issue. We hope that the two sides can properly handle the THAAD
issue and bring the normal exchange and cooperation in various
fields back to the track of normal development. We believe this is
of positive significance to the change of public opinion in the
two countries."<END QUOTE>
The answer implies that bad feelings and relations between the peoples
of China and South Korea were caused by the THAAD issue. From the
point of view of Generational Dynamics, the most likely explanation is
that bad feelings and relations between the Chinese and South Koreans
have been growing for some time, and that the THAAD was just a trigger
for open hostility. This view is supported by e-mail exchanges that
I've had with readers in the past indicating that there is extreme
hostility between Chinese and South Koreans. It seems unlikely that
Tuesday's agreement to improve relations is going to do much to change
these bad feelings and relations in the future. Business Insider and China's Foreign Ministry and The Hankyoreh (Seoul) and Global Times (Beijing)
Related Articles
- South Korea approves new THAAD deployment after North Korean missile test (30-Jul-2017)
- Ancient tensions flare between China and North Korea (08-May-2017)
- China promises retaliation over surprise deployment of THAAD in South Korea (08-Mar-2017)
- China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system (10-Aug-2016)
****
**** Chinese geologists warn of looming nuclear disaster from North Korean tests
****
There have been reports that 200 North Korean workers were killed in a
series of tunnel collapses on October 10 at the main North Korean
nuclear testing site at Mount Mantap. These reports come from a
single unverified North Korean report, and are doubted by some
analysts.
However, what is apparently certain is that senior Chinese nuclear
scientists and geologists are saying that any further nuclear bomb
tests could risk a huge nuclear disaster that would affect both North
Korea and China.
The problem is that Mount Mantap, where North Korea has conducted five
underground nuclear tests, is now in danger of collapsing completely,
releasing huge amounts of radiation and nuclear debris that would
affect large parts of northeastern China.
The warnings have been delivered directly to North Korean scientists
by nuclear scientists at the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of
Geology and Geophysics. They warned North Korea that further nuclear
tests could blow the top off Mount Mantap and spark a potential
catastrophic collapse at the nuclear testing site, resulting in
radiation releases and other forms of contamination. The warnings
were summarized by an unnamed researcher at Peking University:
<QUOTE>"China cannot sit and wait until the site
implodes. Our instruments can detect nuclear fallout when it
arrives, but it will be too late by then. There will be public
panic and anger at the government for not taking action.
Maybe the North Koreans themselves have realized that the site
cannot take another blow. If they still want to do it, they have
to do it somewhere else."<END QUOTE>
The Chinese geologists delivered the warnings to the North Koreans on
September 20. Two days later, on September 22, North Korean Foreign
Minister Ri Yong-ho at the United Nations said:
<QUOTE>"It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb
in the Pacific. We have no idea about what actions could be taken
as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong-un."<END QUOTE>
This would, of course, be equally disastrous, as the explosion could
affect any aircraft or sea vessels in the area, and the radiation
could be carried by the winds to any country bordering the Pacific.
News Corp Australia and South China Morning Post and Chosun (Seoul)
Related Articles
- US sends three aircraft carrier strike groups to waters around North Korea (27-Oct-2017)
- North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul? (18-Oct-2017)
- Japan will shoot down N. Korean missiles via 'collective self-defense' (13-Aug-2017)
- North Korean missile strikes sea close to Japan, threatening radar base (04-Aug-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, North Korea, South Korea,
Kang Kyung-wha, Park Geun-hye, Lotte Group, Moon Jae-in,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
Mount Mantap, Peking University, Ri Yong-ho,
Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Geology and Geophysics
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
