11-18-2017, 11:35 PM
*** 19-Nov-17 World View -- Ecstatic throngs in Harare Zimbabwe demand that Robert Mugabe step down
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Ecstatic throngs in Harare Zimbabwe demand that Robert Mugabe step down
****
![[Image: g171118b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171118b.jpg)
Anti-Mugabe protests in Harare Zimbabwe on Saturday
Up until a few days ago, anyone in Zimbabwe who criticized the 93 year
old genocidal dictator Robert Mugabe risked being jailed and tortured.
Mugabe's wife, 52 year old Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, said earlier this
year that Mugabe would continue governing from the grave:
<QUOTE>"One day when God decides that Mugabe dies, we will
have his corpse appear as a candidate on the ballot paper,
You will see people voting for Mugabe as a corpse. I am seriously
telling you — just to show people how people love their
president."<END QUOTE>
That's why everyone, including foreign reporters, were shocked and
thrilled to see tens of thousands of people cheering ecstaticly on
Saturday and marching in the capital city Harare, carrying banners
that read "Mugabe must go!" and "Leadership is not sexually
transmitted" -- the latter an allusion to the attempt by Grace Mugabe
to succeed her husband as president. Another sign read, "Mugabe must
rest now!", alluding to the fact that Mugabe falls asleep during
meetings.
On Wednesday, Zimbabwe's army took control of the government after
arresting the president Robert Mugabe and confining him to his home.
In addition, the army arrested a number of other ministers who are
supporting Mugabe.
However, the army is insisting that this is not a "coup." The reason
is that the African Union is compelled by its constitution to
intervene if a coup takes place.
Alpha Conde, who is Guinea's president and is also president of the
African Union said on Thursday:
<QUOTE>"We demand respect for the constitution, a return to
the constitutional order and we will never accept the military
coup d'état.
We know there are internal problems. They need to be resolved
politically by the Zanu-PF party and not with an intervention by
the army."<END QUOTE>
The Southern Africa Democratic Development Community (SADC) would also
have to take action in case of a coup, and so is insisting that it's
an internal government matter.
Thus, it's essential to the army that Mugabe be replaced by means of a
constitutional transition of power. This requires that Mugabe step
down voluntarily. However, Mugabe is not playing along. He says that
he plans to remain in office, and die in office. So the army is
resorting to a kind of "plan B" to convince Mugabe step down. The
first step was to encourage people to come to Harare on Saturday with
anti-Mugabe protests and demand that he step down, although with the
streets flooded with singing and dancing people on Saturday, it's
clear that they didn't need much encouragement.
For the next step in the plan, on Sunday, Mugabe will be fired as
leader of the government party, Zanu-Pf, though he'll still be
president of the country. In addition, his wife Grace will be fired
as head of the Zanu-Pf Women's League. At this point, the plan is
that Mugabe will no longer have any friends, allies or supporters, and
the hope is that he'll accept a dignified exit. In that case Emmerson
Mnangagwa, who used to be Robert Mugabe's vice president, will be
elevated to be president. However, I heard one official say that if
Mugabe still insists on staying in office, then things will "get
ugly."
By the way, neither Emmerson Mnangagwa nor Grace Mugabe have been
heard from since Wednesday.
Meanwhile, watching the street interviews with the people singing and
dancing in Harare on Saturday, it's obvious that most of the people
were in their own state of denial. Under Mugabe, they've suffered one
economic disaster after another, as Mugabe's "indigenization" program
threw out farm and business owners who knew how to run a farm or a
business, and replaced them with thugs and cronies from Mugabe's Shona
tribe who didn't know how to run a farm or business.
The gleeful people on the streets of Harare interviewed on Saturday
were saying things like "Mugabe fought our first war of independence,
and now when he's out it will be our second independence," with the
implication that things will get better. But things aren't going to
change at all. Mnangagwa is the same kind of genocidal psychopath
that Mugabe is. The same "old guard" will be in charge, though with
different players, and the same Shona thugs and cronies will be
running the farms and businesses.
And in the next few weeks and months as people realize that nothing is
going to change, there are going to be plenty of new crises. Reuters and Zimbabwe Herald and Times Live (South Africa) and CNN
****
**** The events in Zimbabwe show how history unfolds and disasters occur
****
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the events in
Zimbabwe the last few days are really quite remarkable. Seemingly the
entire popular of Zimbabwe suddenly underwent a huge, massive change
in behavior and attitude. Two weeks ago, everybody loved Mugabe. On
Saturday, everybody hated Mugabe and wanted to get rid of him.
And we know what triggered this change: Mugabe's announcement that he
would fire his vice president so that his own wife could replace him
as president. The resulting change was so fast and so massive that
reporters keep saying that they can't believe it even happened.
This kind of massive change in public opinion and behavior is the
stuff of history and major historical events, including major
historical disasters. In other circumstances, that kind of massive
lightning change in public opinion and behavior can cause a panic that
leads to a war, as happened for example when Israel panicked and
attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006. The attack was triggered when
Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers along the border, and the
attack came four hours later, with no plan and no objective.
That same kind of lighting change of public opinion and behavior can
also cause a major financial panic and crash, and sometimes we don't
even know what the trigger is. I often like to point out that, even
today, 88 years later, we still don't know what triggered the stock
market panic on August 28, 1929, and why it didn't occur six months
earlier or six months later.
Today there's a huge stock market bubble, with the S&P 500
price/earnings ratio almost 25, far above its historic value of 14.
China, the world's second largest economy, is running on a huge debt
bubble and a huge real estate bubble.
Of special note is the Bitcoin bubble. When I wrote about it
a month ago, Bitcoin was just above $5000.
Today it's close to $8000, having been at just $728 a year ago.
Bitcoin investments have nothing backing them except hot air and
promises, and the explosive growth of Bitcoins is one of the most
dramatic bubbles since the Tulipomania bubble of the 1600s. When the
Tulipomania bubble burst after a panic in 1637, people cursed tulips
for decades. When a panic occurs and the Bitcoin bubble implodes, the
cursing will be far worse.
The thing we should learn from the last two weeks in Zimbabwe is that
a panic can occur with lightning speed. Events that are provably
impossible today become not only possible but completely real
tomorrow. And unless you've anticipated those events and prepared
for them, then you'll suffer the consequences.
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Harare, Robert Mugabe, Zanu-pf,
Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, Alpha Conde, African Union, Guinea,
Southern Africa Democratic Development Community, SADC,
Emmerson Mnangagwa, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah,
Bitcoin, Tulipomania
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Ecstatic throngs in Harare Zimbabwe demand that Robert Mugabe step down
- The events in Zimbabwe show how history unfolds and disasters occur
****
**** Ecstatic throngs in Harare Zimbabwe demand that Robert Mugabe step down
****
Anti-Mugabe protests in Harare Zimbabwe on Saturday
Up until a few days ago, anyone in Zimbabwe who criticized the 93 year
old genocidal dictator Robert Mugabe risked being jailed and tortured.
Mugabe's wife, 52 year old Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, said earlier this
year that Mugabe would continue governing from the grave:
<QUOTE>"One day when God decides that Mugabe dies, we will
have his corpse appear as a candidate on the ballot paper,
You will see people voting for Mugabe as a corpse. I am seriously
telling you — just to show people how people love their
president."<END QUOTE>
That's why everyone, including foreign reporters, were shocked and
thrilled to see tens of thousands of people cheering ecstaticly on
Saturday and marching in the capital city Harare, carrying banners
that read "Mugabe must go!" and "Leadership is not sexually
transmitted" -- the latter an allusion to the attempt by Grace Mugabe
to succeed her husband as president. Another sign read, "Mugabe must
rest now!", alluding to the fact that Mugabe falls asleep during
meetings.
On Wednesday, Zimbabwe's army took control of the government after
arresting the president Robert Mugabe and confining him to his home.
In addition, the army arrested a number of other ministers who are
supporting Mugabe.
However, the army is insisting that this is not a "coup." The reason
is that the African Union is compelled by its constitution to
intervene if a coup takes place.
Alpha Conde, who is Guinea's president and is also president of the
African Union said on Thursday:
<QUOTE>"We demand respect for the constitution, a return to
the constitutional order and we will never accept the military
coup d'état.
We know there are internal problems. They need to be resolved
politically by the Zanu-PF party and not with an intervention by
the army."<END QUOTE>
The Southern Africa Democratic Development Community (SADC) would also
have to take action in case of a coup, and so is insisting that it's
an internal government matter.
Thus, it's essential to the army that Mugabe be replaced by means of a
constitutional transition of power. This requires that Mugabe step
down voluntarily. However, Mugabe is not playing along. He says that
he plans to remain in office, and die in office. So the army is
resorting to a kind of "plan B" to convince Mugabe step down. The
first step was to encourage people to come to Harare on Saturday with
anti-Mugabe protests and demand that he step down, although with the
streets flooded with singing and dancing people on Saturday, it's
clear that they didn't need much encouragement.
For the next step in the plan, on Sunday, Mugabe will be fired as
leader of the government party, Zanu-Pf, though he'll still be
president of the country. In addition, his wife Grace will be fired
as head of the Zanu-Pf Women's League. At this point, the plan is
that Mugabe will no longer have any friends, allies or supporters, and
the hope is that he'll accept a dignified exit. In that case Emmerson
Mnangagwa, who used to be Robert Mugabe's vice president, will be
elevated to be president. However, I heard one official say that if
Mugabe still insists on staying in office, then things will "get
ugly."
By the way, neither Emmerson Mnangagwa nor Grace Mugabe have been
heard from since Wednesday.
Meanwhile, watching the street interviews with the people singing and
dancing in Harare on Saturday, it's obvious that most of the people
were in their own state of denial. Under Mugabe, they've suffered one
economic disaster after another, as Mugabe's "indigenization" program
threw out farm and business owners who knew how to run a farm or a
business, and replaced them with thugs and cronies from Mugabe's Shona
tribe who didn't know how to run a farm or business.
The gleeful people on the streets of Harare interviewed on Saturday
were saying things like "Mugabe fought our first war of independence,
and now when he's out it will be our second independence," with the
implication that things will get better. But things aren't going to
change at all. Mnangagwa is the same kind of genocidal psychopath
that Mugabe is. The same "old guard" will be in charge, though with
different players, and the same Shona thugs and cronies will be
running the farms and businesses.
And in the next few weeks and months as people realize that nothing is
going to change, there are going to be plenty of new crises. Reuters and Zimbabwe Herald and Times Live (South Africa) and CNN
****
**** The events in Zimbabwe show how history unfolds and disasters occur
****
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the events in
Zimbabwe the last few days are really quite remarkable. Seemingly the
entire popular of Zimbabwe suddenly underwent a huge, massive change
in behavior and attitude. Two weeks ago, everybody loved Mugabe. On
Saturday, everybody hated Mugabe and wanted to get rid of him.
And we know what triggered this change: Mugabe's announcement that he
would fire his vice president so that his own wife could replace him
as president. The resulting change was so fast and so massive that
reporters keep saying that they can't believe it even happened.
This kind of massive change in public opinion and behavior is the
stuff of history and major historical events, including major
historical disasters. In other circumstances, that kind of massive
lightning change in public opinion and behavior can cause a panic that
leads to a war, as happened for example when Israel panicked and
attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006. The attack was triggered when
Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers along the border, and the
attack came four hours later, with no plan and no objective.
That same kind of lighting change of public opinion and behavior can
also cause a major financial panic and crash, and sometimes we don't
even know what the trigger is. I often like to point out that, even
today, 88 years later, we still don't know what triggered the stock
market panic on August 28, 1929, and why it didn't occur six months
earlier or six months later.
Today there's a huge stock market bubble, with the S&P 500
price/earnings ratio almost 25, far above its historic value of 14.
China, the world's second largest economy, is running on a huge debt
bubble and a huge real estate bubble.
Of special note is the Bitcoin bubble. When I wrote about it
a month ago, Bitcoin was just above $5000.
Today it's close to $8000, having been at just $728 a year ago.
Bitcoin investments have nothing backing them except hot air and
promises, and the explosive growth of Bitcoins is one of the most
dramatic bubbles since the Tulipomania bubble of the 1600s. When the
Tulipomania bubble burst after a panic in 1637, people cursed tulips
for decades. When a panic occurs and the Bitcoin bubble implodes, the
cursing will be far worse.
The thing we should learn from the last two weeks in Zimbabwe is that
a panic can occur with lightning speed. Events that are provably
impossible today become not only possible but completely real
tomorrow. And unless you've anticipated those events and prepared
for them, then you'll suffer the consequences.
Related Articles
- Zimbabwe coup splits ruling Zanu-pf party along generational lines (16-Nov-2017)
- Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe sacks the VP so that his wife can succeed him (07-Nov-2017)
- Bitcoin super-bubble surges through $5,000 and blasts even higher (16-Oct-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Harare, Robert Mugabe, Zanu-pf,
Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, Alpha Conde, African Union, Guinea,
Southern Africa Democratic Development Community, SADC,
Emmerson Mnangagwa, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah,
Bitcoin, Tulipomania
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
