Generational Dynamics World View

[Warren Dew]

(11-22-2017, 12:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(11-22-2017, 12:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   Are the crackdowns always on the losing side in the preceding
>   crisis war?

No.  An interesting example is to look at the three countries,
Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda.  All three countries were involved
in the Hutu-Tutsi genocide of 1994, but today the Burundi
government is Hutu, while the Rwanda and Uganda governments
are Tutsi.

(11-22-2017, 12:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   I note that Mugabe was forced to resign as Nixon was, suggesting
>   there are still similarities between awakening patterns.

There are may similarities between awakening patterns.

(11-22-2017, 12:31 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   Do you have an example of a first world country with an internally
>   directed crisis war and subsequent bloody crackdowns, so we can
>   differentiate between the effects of internal versus external
>   crisis wars and the effects of development level?

It's an interesting question, but the problem is that the phrase
"first world country" is purely political.

Is China a "first world country"?  They're the second largest economy
in the world, but they claim, for political reasons, that they're an
"underdeveloped country," so that they can continue to blame the
United States for every problem in the world.  Is India a "first world
country"?  Is Russia?

So I'll give you a useful working definition of "first world country":
A first world country is one whose political development has advanced
to the point where all the issues involving tribes and ethnic groups
in its population have been resolved to the point where they no longer
have tribal or ethnic crisis civil wars.

I don't think that's a very useful definition of "first world"; economic development would be better.  With a more useful economic definition, whether or not China is a first world country now, they were certainly not at the time of their last crisis war.

It may be a useful definition of some other demarcation, perhaps between politically primitive and politically advanced.  However, the Russian Civil War wasn't tribal or ethnic, and yet their subsequent history was marked with bloody crackdowns and purges.

One thing that might be needed for a first world economy is a free market economy.  In that case the causality might go the other way:  ethnic, tribal, or political crackdowns would tend to prevent or erode a free market as economic actors pandered to the people in power rather than putting their own interests first.

As far as I can tell, though, the crackdowns aren't particularly limited to the awakening period.  I'm not sure they really fit into a generational theory.