01-15-2018, 10:58 PM
*** 16-Jan-18 World View -- US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder
****
![[Image: g180115b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180115b.jpg)
US soldiers train Kurdish SDF forces in how to control a drone (Reuters)
The US-led coalition against ISIS in Syria is training a force of
30,000 fighters, mostly drawn from the existing predominantly Kurdish
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in order to form a "Syrian Border
Force" (BSF) to prevent a resurgence of the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
The purpose of the BSF is to avoid repeating what is seen to be a
blunder made by president Barack Obama in 2011, when American troops
were withdrawn from Iraq with no continuing presence to prevent the
spread of a new insurgency. Many people refer to that as a blunder by
Obama that permitted the spread of the ISIS insurgency in Iraq. The
intention is that the new BSF will prevent a similar blunder in Syria,
now that ISIS is no longer in control of Raqqa.
According to coalition spokesman Colonel Thomas F. Veale:
<QUOTE>"The Coalition is working jointly with the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) to establish and train the new Syrian
Border Security Force (BSF). Currently, there are approximately
230 individuals training in the BSF’s inaugural class, with the
goal of a final force size of approximately 30,000.
The base of the new force is essentially a realignment of
approximately 15,000 members of the Syrian Democratic Forces to a
new mission in the Border Security Force as their actions against
ISIS draw to a close."<END QUOTE>
As Veale's statement suggests, the training has already been going on
for some time. In fact, this is a follow-up from a statement made on
December 22 by US Army Gen. Joseph Votel, head of U.S. Central
Command. Votel pointed out that Russia's president Vladimir Putin had
declared early in December that ISIS was defeated in eastern Syria,
but then ISIS took over six villages in the area just days later.
Votel confirmed, for the first time, that there were 2,000 American
troops in Syria, and said that they will be training "border security
forces" in Syria:
<QUOTE>"[The border security forces] will help prevent
resurgence of ISIS and will help bring control. We do it right
where it's needed [in Syria].
You just can't go in and have a fight and drop a bunch of bombs
and then step away from it and think that the problem is solved.
This is a reminder of just how resilient and capable this
organization [ISIS] is, and how we have to really make sure, as we
complete these operations, that we've done it very
thoroughly."<END QUOTE>
The training would include instruction in interrogation, screening,
biometric scanning and other skills to help identify insurgents who
may be trying to cross into Syria from neighboring countries, now that
the emphasis is on stabilization and peacekeeping, not fighting.
There were 230 individuals who were trained in the program announced
in December. The US considers the SDF and the Kurdish fighters to
have been the most effective fighting force against ISIS, better than
Turkish forces and Syrian forces. So 15,000 hardened fighters in the
SDF will initially be realigned to a new mission in the Border
Security Force, and additional fighters will be recruited and trained,
to bring the total BSF force to 30,000.
The BSF will be responsible for patrolling the borders of a region
stretching from the Euphrates River Valley in the east to the Iraq
border in the west, and north to the border with Turkey.
The ethnic composition of the force will vary relative to the areas in
which it serves, with efforts taken to ensure that people serve close
to their homes. This all but guarantees that Kurds, who make up a
majority of the population in northeastern Syria, will be establishing
checkpoints along the roughly 820-kilometer (510-mile) Syria-Turkey
border, while more Arabs will serve in areas along the Euphrates River
Valley and along the border with Iraq. The Defense Post (13-Jan) and AP (22-Dec)
****
**** Turkey, Russia and Syria infuriated by the Border Security Force announcement
****
The area being patrolled by the Border Security Force seems enormous
to many people. Furthermore, while the objective may be to prevent
infiltration of ISIS across Turkey's border, it seems likely that a
major purpose of patrolling the Euphrates River Value will be to
prevent infiltration of Syrian army forces, and a major purpose of
patrolling the Iraq border will be to prevent Iran from completing its
road connecting Baghdad to Damascus.
Turkey has been complaining for almost two years that while the
Kurdish forces in the SDF were fighting ISIS in Raqqa, they could also
be preparing for new terrorist attacks in Turkey itself. The Kurds in
the SDF are affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which
conducted an insurgency within Turkey for three decades, and which has
perpetrated major terror attacks within Turkey during the last three
years.
Turkey claims that the US promised that the Kurdish forces would no
longer be armed, once ISIS was defeated, and that the US is reneging
on that promise. Turkey claims that the new Border Security Force
will be a Kurdish army poised to attack Turkey.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Turkey
will attack the Kurdish forces, and clear its border of "terrorists."
That remark apparently was not referring to Kurdish forces in the BSF
region, but rather to Kurdish forces in Afrin, and also to Iraq.
However, Erdogan also criticized the US support of the SDF:
<QUOTE>"Making a terrorist wear a uniform, and flying your
country's flag over the buildings they use, does not change any
facts. Thousands of weapons sent to the region are already on the
black market and some of them are being used against
us."<END QUOTE>
On Monday, Erdogan added:
<QUOTE>"The United States has admitted that it has created a
terrorist force along our country's border. Our duty is to drown
this army of terror before it is born."<END QUOTE>
Erdogan is threatening an imminent military attack on Kurds in Afrin,
Manbij, and other targets in northern Syria. However, he's made such
threats before without carrying through.
Russian officials are angered by the BSF announcement because they see
that it has no other purpose than to partition Syria permanently:
<QUOTE>"In fact, that means separation of a huge territory
along the border with Turkey and Iraq. The actions we currently
see indicate that the United States does not want to keep the
territorial integrity of Syria. We see not the desire to help to
extinguish the conflict as soon as possible, but rather the desire
to assist those who want to take practical steps for regime change
in the Syrian Arab Republic. ...
What it would mean is that vast swaths of territory along the
border of Turkey and Iraq would be isolated, it's to the east of
the Euphrates river. There are difficult relations between Kurds
and Arabs there. If you say that this zone will be controlled by
the forces supported by the US, there will be a force of 30,000
people. ...
There is a fear that they are pursuing a policy to cut Syria into
several pieces."<END QUOTE>
Not surprisingly, Syria's foreign ministry denounced the plan for the
Border Security Force:
<QUOTE>"Syria strongly condemns the US announcement on the
creation of militias in the country's northeast, which represents
a blatant attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity and
unity of Syria, and a flagrant violation of international law.
Syria considers any Syrian who participates in these militias
sponsored by the Americans as a traitor to their people and
nation, and will deal with them on this basis."<END QUOTE>
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the
"axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be
pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.
This prediction indicates that the current alliance between Turkey and
Russia will end at some point soon. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and AP and Russia Today and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Border Security Force, BSF,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Iraq, Euphrates River Valley,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Afrin, Manbij, Raqqa,
Thomas F. Veale, Joseph Votel, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder
- Turkey, Russia and Syria infuriated by the Border Security Force announcement
****
**** US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder
****
US soldiers train Kurdish SDF forces in how to control a drone (Reuters)
The US-led coalition against ISIS in Syria is training a force of
30,000 fighters, mostly drawn from the existing predominantly Kurdish
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in order to form a "Syrian Border
Force" (BSF) to prevent a resurgence of the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
The purpose of the BSF is to avoid repeating what is seen to be a
blunder made by president Barack Obama in 2011, when American troops
were withdrawn from Iraq with no continuing presence to prevent the
spread of a new insurgency. Many people refer to that as a blunder by
Obama that permitted the spread of the ISIS insurgency in Iraq. The
intention is that the new BSF will prevent a similar blunder in Syria,
now that ISIS is no longer in control of Raqqa.
According to coalition spokesman Colonel Thomas F. Veale:
<QUOTE>"The Coalition is working jointly with the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) to establish and train the new Syrian
Border Security Force (BSF). Currently, there are approximately
230 individuals training in the BSF’s inaugural class, with the
goal of a final force size of approximately 30,000.
The base of the new force is essentially a realignment of
approximately 15,000 members of the Syrian Democratic Forces to a
new mission in the Border Security Force as their actions against
ISIS draw to a close."<END QUOTE>
As Veale's statement suggests, the training has already been going on
for some time. In fact, this is a follow-up from a statement made on
December 22 by US Army Gen. Joseph Votel, head of U.S. Central
Command. Votel pointed out that Russia's president Vladimir Putin had
declared early in December that ISIS was defeated in eastern Syria,
but then ISIS took over six villages in the area just days later.
Votel confirmed, for the first time, that there were 2,000 American
troops in Syria, and said that they will be training "border security
forces" in Syria:
<QUOTE>"[The border security forces] will help prevent
resurgence of ISIS and will help bring control. We do it right
where it's needed [in Syria].
You just can't go in and have a fight and drop a bunch of bombs
and then step away from it and think that the problem is solved.
This is a reminder of just how resilient and capable this
organization [ISIS] is, and how we have to really make sure, as we
complete these operations, that we've done it very
thoroughly."<END QUOTE>
The training would include instruction in interrogation, screening,
biometric scanning and other skills to help identify insurgents who
may be trying to cross into Syria from neighboring countries, now that
the emphasis is on stabilization and peacekeeping, not fighting.
There were 230 individuals who were trained in the program announced
in December. The US considers the SDF and the Kurdish fighters to
have been the most effective fighting force against ISIS, better than
Turkish forces and Syrian forces. So 15,000 hardened fighters in the
SDF will initially be realigned to a new mission in the Border
Security Force, and additional fighters will be recruited and trained,
to bring the total BSF force to 30,000.
The BSF will be responsible for patrolling the borders of a region
stretching from the Euphrates River Valley in the east to the Iraq
border in the west, and north to the border with Turkey.
The ethnic composition of the force will vary relative to the areas in
which it serves, with efforts taken to ensure that people serve close
to their homes. This all but guarantees that Kurds, who make up a
majority of the population in northeastern Syria, will be establishing
checkpoints along the roughly 820-kilometer (510-mile) Syria-Turkey
border, while more Arabs will serve in areas along the Euphrates River
Valley and along the border with Iraq. The Defense Post (13-Jan) and AP (22-Dec)
****
**** Turkey, Russia and Syria infuriated by the Border Security Force announcement
****
The area being patrolled by the Border Security Force seems enormous
to many people. Furthermore, while the objective may be to prevent
infiltration of ISIS across Turkey's border, it seems likely that a
major purpose of patrolling the Euphrates River Value will be to
prevent infiltration of Syrian army forces, and a major purpose of
patrolling the Iraq border will be to prevent Iran from completing its
road connecting Baghdad to Damascus.
Turkey has been complaining for almost two years that while the
Kurdish forces in the SDF were fighting ISIS in Raqqa, they could also
be preparing for new terrorist attacks in Turkey itself. The Kurds in
the SDF are affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which
conducted an insurgency within Turkey for three decades, and which has
perpetrated major terror attacks within Turkey during the last three
years.
Turkey claims that the US promised that the Kurdish forces would no
longer be armed, once ISIS was defeated, and that the US is reneging
on that promise. Turkey claims that the new Border Security Force
will be a Kurdish army poised to attack Turkey.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Turkey
will attack the Kurdish forces, and clear its border of "terrorists."
That remark apparently was not referring to Kurdish forces in the BSF
region, but rather to Kurdish forces in Afrin, and also to Iraq.
However, Erdogan also criticized the US support of the SDF:
<QUOTE>"Making a terrorist wear a uniform, and flying your
country's flag over the buildings they use, does not change any
facts. Thousands of weapons sent to the region are already on the
black market and some of them are being used against
us."<END QUOTE>
On Monday, Erdogan added:
<QUOTE>"The United States has admitted that it has created a
terrorist force along our country's border. Our duty is to drown
this army of terror before it is born."<END QUOTE>
Erdogan is threatening an imminent military attack on Kurds in Afrin,
Manbij, and other targets in northern Syria. However, he's made such
threats before without carrying through.
Russian officials are angered by the BSF announcement because they see
that it has no other purpose than to partition Syria permanently:
<QUOTE>"In fact, that means separation of a huge territory
along the border with Turkey and Iraq. The actions we currently
see indicate that the United States does not want to keep the
territorial integrity of Syria. We see not the desire to help to
extinguish the conflict as soon as possible, but rather the desire
to assist those who want to take practical steps for regime change
in the Syrian Arab Republic. ...
What it would mean is that vast swaths of territory along the
border of Turkey and Iraq would be isolated, it's to the east of
the Euphrates river. There are difficult relations between Kurds
and Arabs there. If you say that this zone will be controlled by
the forces supported by the US, there will be a force of 30,000
people. ...
There is a fear that they are pursuing a policy to cut Syria into
several pieces."<END QUOTE>
Not surprisingly, Syria's foreign ministry denounced the plan for the
Border Security Force:
<QUOTE>"Syria strongly condemns the US announcement on the
creation of militias in the country's northeast, which represents
a blatant attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity and
unity of Syria, and a flagrant violation of international law.
Syria considers any Syrian who participates in these militias
sponsored by the Americans as a traitor to their people and
nation, and will deal with them on this basis."<END QUOTE>
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the
"axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be
pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.
This prediction indicates that the current alliance between Turkey and
Russia will end at some point soon. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and AP and Russia Today and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
- Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib (13-Oct-2017)
- Turkey announces major military operation in Syria's Idlib province (09-Oct-2017)
- Turkey reshuffles military in preparation to attack Kurds in northern Syria (10-Aug-2017)
- US military moves to protect Syrian Kurds from Turkey's military (03-May-2017)
- Turkey returns to war with the Kurdish PKK (03-Aug-2015)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Border Security Force, BSF,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Iraq, Euphrates River Valley,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Afrin, Manbij, Raqqa,
Thomas F. Veale, Joseph Votel, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
