Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean dictator's sister, charms the Olympics
  
• Kim Yo-jong returns to Pyongyang with fond memories and an invitation for Moon
  
• Moon Jae-in faces some difficult decisions
  

****
**** Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean dictator's sister, charms the Olympics
****


Kim Yo-jong and Moon Jae-in share an intimate moment as they watch a performance by North Korea’s Samjiyon art troupe at the National Theater of Korea in central Seoul on Sunday. (Yonhap)

History has been made this weekend, as the visit by North Korean
officials to the Winter Olympics in Seoul has produced a softening of
tensions between North and South Korea, and is succeeding in driving a
wedge between South Korea and its allies, the United States and Japan.
North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un is truly a brilliant at
marketing.

And best of all was Kim Yo-jong, the dictator's sister. She not only
charmed president Moon Jae-in, she also charmed all of South Korea and
in fact the whole world.

That's what you would believe if you read the mainstream media
coverage of the Seoul Olympics.

US Vice President Mike Pence was described as "the loneliest figure"
in the audience. He is described as having "snubbed" Kim Yo-jong, who
was seated just a few feet away from him. Pence was truly the Grinch
Who Stole Christmas.

Pence posted a tweet:

<QUOTE>The US will not allow the propaganda charade by the
North Korean regime to go unchallenged on the world state. the
world can NOT turn a blind eye to the oppression & threats of the
Kim regime."<END QUOTE>

Kim Jong-un was reported as saying that Pence's behavior was
"shameful" and "snobbish."

Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe apparently tried to bring things
back down to earth by saying, "Now is not the time to postpone
U.S.-South Korea military exercises. It is important to move forward
with the drills as planned." Abe was referring to the joint military
exercises that had been postponed because of North Korea's attendance
at the Olympics. The South Korean government told him in essence that
it was none of his business. Korea Herald
and Reuters

****
**** Kim Yo-jong returns to Pyongyang with fond memories and an invitation for Moon
****

Before leaving Seoul on Sunday, Kim Yo-jong invited South Korea's
president Moon Jae-in to visit her in Pyongyang, and also said that
she'd like to visit Seoul again:

<QUOTE>"Honestly, I never thought I would visit (the South)
so suddenly and believed much would be strange and different but I
saw many things that were similar or the same. Here's to hoping
that we could see the pleasant people (of the South) again in
Pyeongchang and bring closer the future where we are one
again."<END QUOTE>

I thought that this was a very interesting statement, because it
reminded me of the surprising outcome of a visit by Russia's
Boris Yeltsin to the United States in 1989.


Boris Yeltsin visits Randall's Supermarket in Texas on September 16, 1989 (Houston Chronicle)

Yeltsin was visiting the Johnson Space Center in Houston on September
16, 1989, when suddenly he asked to go shopping at a grocery store to
be chosen more or less at random. He ended up at Randall's
Supermarket in Clear Lake, and was astounded at the bewildering
variety of products available to American shoppers. He had been led
to believe that the grocery stores in America were even worse than the
ones in Soviet Russia, and he was shocked to learn the truth.

According to Yeltsin's autobiography, this visit changed his life,
and shattered his view of communism. Two years later he
left the Communist Party, and started making economic reforms. He
wrote in his autobiography:

<QUOTE>When I saw those shelves crammed with hundreds,
thousands of cans, cartons and goods of every possible sort, for
the first time I felt quite frankly sick with despair for the
Soviet people. That such a potentially super-rich country as ours
has been brought to a state of such poverty! It is terrible to
think of it."<END QUOTE>

So, when Kim Yo-jong says that she "saw many things that were similar
or the same," what was she thinking? Was she reflecting on the many
things that were dissimilar, and how much better off the South Korean
people are than the North Korean people?

It's an interesting speculation, but Kim Jong-un is no Yeltsen.
Nothing short of war is going to stop North Korea from developing its
arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.

Still, there are many questions: What is Kim Yo-jong thinking? Will
she try to convince her brother to end his nuclear weapons program?
And if she does try, will he have her killed, the way he's had other
family members killed? Inquiring minds want to know.

At any rate, Kim Yo-jong passed on to Moon an invitation from the
dictator to visit North Korea “at his earliest convenience." AP and Houston Chronicle (7-Apr-2014)

****
**** Moon Jae-in faces some difficult decisions
****

Kim Yo-jong is pretty, and Moon Jae-in is charming, and they make a
very attractive couple, and the media have been fawning over them, but
the core issues haven't changed.

Kim Jong-un has already said that he can reach the United States with
a nuclear weapon, and that he's safe from attack, though that's
believed to be an exaggeration. It's believed that the purpose of his
Olympics charm offensive was to buy at least two months' time to
continue development. And now by inviting Moon to visit him, he hopes
to buy some more time.

Now it's up to Moon to make the next move, and there are a number of
questions to be answered:

• Moon's presidential campaign was about closer relations with
  the North. Moon would like to accept the North's invitation to visit,
  but should he set preconditions?
  
  
• Should Moon demand as a precondition that a denuclearization
  discussion should be on the agenda for his visit North? Kim Jong-un
  has refused to discuss the nuclear issue with him in the past, and
  this demand may cause the North to walk away.
  
  
• Should Moon demand that the North be willing to discuss
  denuclearization with the Americans? Kim has refused to talk to the
  Americans.
  
  
• Should the annual joint US-South Korea military drills, which were
  postponed until the Olympics games were over, take place immediately
  after the end of the Olympics?
  
  
• What should Moon recommend with regard to economic sanctions on
  the North -- reduce them, increase them, or leave them the same?
  
  
• Should Moon and the US agree to go ahead with a "bloody nose"
  attack on North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile
  facilities?

The politics behind the "bloody nose" attack are very interesting.
I've heard one analyst after another say that such an attack is
"clearly and obviously impossible," because the North would
immediately retaliate with a massive artillery attack on Seoul.

But actually that doesn't make sense, as the logic points in the
opposite direction. Assuming that a way can be found to destroy North
Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile development facilities, the
North would just have to accept it. If the North retaliated and
attacked Seoul, then the next American attack would completely destroy
Kim Jong-un's government, and Kim himself would be killed.

American government officials have been extremely clear that they will
not permit North Korea to "have a deliverable atomic weapon that can
reach the United States reliably. It just cannot be," in the words of
John Kelly, echoing statements by Donald Trump, H.R. McMaster, Steve
Bannon, Lindsey Graham, and others.

These are all considerations that Moon will have to take into account,
as he decides what his next steps will be.

Rep. Choo Mi-ae, of Moon's left-wing Democratic party, welcomed the
North's proposal for a summit meeting:

<QUOTE>"If an inter-Korean summit is realized, it will be
recorded as the biggest achievement of the PyeongChang Olympics.
We have to work with greater responsibility as we make
preparations and respond carefully to the invitation.

Although there may be disagreements and concerns at home and
abroad, what's clear is that peace stems from dialogue and it's
impossible to oppose dialogue if we want peace."<END QUOTE>

However, Rep. Chang Je-won, right-wing opposition Liberty Korea Party
criticized Moon for not raising the denuclearization issue with Kim
Yo-jong during her visit:

<QUOTE>"We once again warn that a visit by the president to
North Korea, unless it is premised on denuclearization, would be
nothing more than a congratulatory delegation celebrating (the
North's) nuclear development and would amount to an
enemy-benefiting act."<END QUOTE>

Korea Herald and Reuters
and Yonhap News

Related Articles:

• North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration (18-Jan-2018)
  
  
• US officials plan for military strike on North Korea and war (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China's envoy to North Korea fails to end nuclear crisis (21-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Donald Trump in Seoul issues stern warning to North Korea -- and to China (09-Nov-2017)
  
  
• North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul? (18-Oct-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Kim Yo-jong,
South Korea, Moon Jae-in, Seoul, Olympics, Mike Pence,
Choo Mi-ae, Chang Je-won, Japan, Shinzo Abe, bloody nose attack,
Russia, Boris Yeltsin, Johnson Space Center, Randall's Supermarket

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John J. Xenakis
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