Generational Dynamics World View

[pbrower2a]

I pay attention to approval polls for the President, and although the polling is not consistent in techniques or by the same entities, and you can always assume some margin of error, you cannot argue against everything. All in all the current President is in deep trouble in his prospect for re-election which he claims to be seeking. Eight years ago, Obama was not doing anywhere near this badly even if there was a well-funded and well-organized Tea Party Movement ready to vilify him for having mismatched socks. And let's not forget the delightful sign reminding us that

The Zoo has an African LION
The White House has a LYIN' African.

Obama still got reelected.  It helped that he wasn't much of a liar.



Approval for President Trump


 (favorability in Illinois -- close enough for my purposes there due to a paucity of posts)

The site from which I got this (and I generated the image) uses the old-fashioned red for Democrats and blue for Republicans because it is a history site with most emphasis on US elections.  Not all states are shown, but enough are to allow one to make guesses on 2020.




55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
47% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 46% medium red
under 42% deep red

gray -- no recent poll (sorry, Arizona and Pennsylvania).

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark red
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium red
50% or higher but negative pale red
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale blue
40% to 44% medium blue
under 40% deep blue



gray -- no recent poll (sorry, Arizona and Pennsylvania).

Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections, which could hardly be more definitive. 

At this point, the best estimate that I can have for the electoral result of 2020 when I do not have a match-up between a Democratic nominee and Donald Trump is to figure that Donald Trump will do no better in any state than 100 less disapproval. I see disapproval as extremely sticky. People who disapprove of him will not vote for him; they have given up on him. Should there be a conservative third-party or independent nominee running against him, then that candidate will cut into the usual vote for a Presidential nominee. You might argue that an unusually-weak nominee against President Trump could lose, that the political culture could change to the benefit of conservatives (such as a right-wing religious revival like the rise of the Religious Right while Jimmy Carter was President), or that the President might be associated with some wildly-popular legislation. It is all possible, but is yet to happen. It is also possible that the President could face an economic meltdown like that that doomed Herbert Hoover or that he could bumble his way into a diplomatic or military debacle as horrid as that of the hostage situation in Iran that doomed the Ca4rter Presidency.

Yes, disapproval is sticky. I also watched the polls in 2010 to 2012, and I saw disapproval go over 50% only once in a state that President Obama would win in 2012. That was 51% (barely) in Ohio at the peak of the savaging of that President by the Tea Party, and he eventually won the state -- just barely. People who disapprove are rarely receptive to any pitch to support the incumbent seeking re-election. Yes, with a shrewd campaign an incumbent can turn undecided voters into his voters, and at this point I expect President Trump to do that because the undecided are clearly on the Right side of the political spectrum.

The numbers in the lower map represent what I now consider ceilings (100 less disapproval) for the vote for Trump in 2012. Back in 2010 through 2012 you would have never seen approval ratings near-even in states that the President won by 15-20% for Obama. You see such approval ratings in states such as Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia.


Now let us remember that this proves little more than that Donald Trump is highly unpopular as President. It could be that  America might vote decisively for a very different conservative in 2024 for President, and that Donald Trump is the wrong right-winger to be President. True. After all, Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan had much the same political skill sets for the Presidency.