03-14-2018, 10:20 PM
*** 15-Mar-18 World View -- Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability
****
![[Image: g180314b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180314b.jpg)
Deserted streets in Ethiopia's capital city Addis Ababa, as businesses closed after strike called by Oromo activists (AFP)
Over 8,000 Ethiopians, mostly ethnic Oromos, have fled Ethiopia since
Saturday and are pouring into an emergency refugee camp being set up
in Kenya. The camp is in the town of Moyale, the capital of Marsabit
County in Kenya, and is on a plot partially owned by the governor of
Marsabit.
Moyale is a border town split into two parts, with one side in
Ethiopia and one side in Kenya. The Oromos fled from Moyale in
Ethiopia, when Ethiopian soldiers on Saturday shot nine civilians.
According to Ethiopian state media, the soldiers shot the civilians by
mistake in a botched raid, after mistaking them for members of a
banned activist group, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).
But several residents of Ethiopia's Moyale said that it wasn't
a mistake at all, but was intentional on the part of the soldiers,
and specifically targeted at random at a crowd of residents:
<QUOTE>"It was then a military vehicle came along. The
military jumped out of the car and started shooting aimlessly,
killing indiscriminately. Some of them were killed in their
homes. Some of them were killed while they were having their
lunch. Some others were killed while they were selling in their
shops."<END QUOTE>
Massive anti-government protests began in Ethiopia's Oromia region
late in 2015, and spread to the neighboring Amhara region, leaving
hundreds dead and resulting in tens of thousands of arrests. A state
of emergency was imposed in October 2016, allowing mass detentions,
and imposing numerous restrictions on people’s movement and
communication.
The first state of emergency ended only a few months ago, in August
2017. Anti-government protests began again, and by February there
were millions of protesters. This led to the shock resignation of the
prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn on February 15. In his letter of
resignation, he wrote, "I see my resignation as vital in the bid to
carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace and democracy."
Not surprisingly, Hailemariam's resignation didn't end the protests,
but instead led to more activism. The result was that the
government's Council of Ministers declared a new state of emergency
that "would be instrumental in thwarting ethnic-based conflicts in the
country and safeguarding the constitutional order." The Nation (Kenya) and AFP (14-Mar) and Reuters and AFP
****
**** Fears grow that Ethiopia's ethnic clashes will destabilize the region
****
As I've previously described in a detailed generational analysis of Ethiopia's protests,
Ethiopia's
last generational crisis war occurred in 1991, when the Marxist Derg
dictatorship was overthrown. Since 1991, the government has been
largely controlled by the ethnic Tigrayans, who are a market and
government dominant minority, comprising only 6% of the population.
Although the Tigrayans comprise only a tiny fraction of the
population, the Tigrayan governing coalition has been able to
increasingly marginalized the two largest ethnic groups, the Oromo
ethnic group (34% of Ethiopia's population), and among the Amhara
ethnic group (27%).
The kind of violence that occurred last weekend is typical of what
happens in the generational Awakening era following a generational
crisis war that's also a tribal or ethnic war. In these cases, when
the war ends, the two warring groups reside in the same country, and
sometimes even in the same villages and towns. As a result, memories
of the massacres, rapes, mutilations and torture that occurred during
the war are constantly refreshed by seeing members of the other tribe
on the streets and in the shops.
That certainly seems to be exactly what's happening here. The
government is supposedly investigating what happened on Saturday, and
has promised that the guilty parties will be punished, but the most
likely explanation is that the soldiers were ethnic Tigrayans who
retain bitter memories of how the Oromos killed their wives or sons,
and are getting revenge. No investigation will prevent that from
happening again.
The anti-government protests are far from over, and they pose the
largest challenge to Ethiopia’s ruling coalition since it took power
in 1991.
In the last two years, more than 900,000 people have been forced from
their homes. The Oromo Liberation Front is an activist youth movement
of a kind that is typical in generational Awakening eras (such as
America in the 1960s). Widespread protest strikes have closed down
shops and businesses.
On Monday, a week-long "fuel blockade" protest action began, blocking
roads and preventing fuel tankers from leaving the capital city Addis
Ababa and supplying fuel to other towns.
The government is already without a prime minister, since the
resignation of Hailemariam Desalegn on February 15. The massive
protests and protest actions are threatening the government, and the
brutal state of emergency is apparently having no effect in bringing
the protests under control. With thousands of Ethiopians crossing the
border into Kenya, a country with its own governmental crisis and
ethnic problems, it's feared that the unrest in Ethiopia could spread
to other countries in the Horn of Africa. Guardian (London) and France 24 and Africa News and Bloomberg (6-Mar) and Africa News (28-Feb)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Hailemariam Desalegn,
Tigrayans, Oromos, Amharas, Kenya, Moyale, Marsabit County,
Oromo Liberation Front, OLF
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability
- Fears grow that Ethiopia's ethnic clashes will destabilize the region
****
**** Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability
****
Deserted streets in Ethiopia's capital city Addis Ababa, as businesses closed after strike called by Oromo activists (AFP)
Over 8,000 Ethiopians, mostly ethnic Oromos, have fled Ethiopia since
Saturday and are pouring into an emergency refugee camp being set up
in Kenya. The camp is in the town of Moyale, the capital of Marsabit
County in Kenya, and is on a plot partially owned by the governor of
Marsabit.
Moyale is a border town split into two parts, with one side in
Ethiopia and one side in Kenya. The Oromos fled from Moyale in
Ethiopia, when Ethiopian soldiers on Saturday shot nine civilians.
According to Ethiopian state media, the soldiers shot the civilians by
mistake in a botched raid, after mistaking them for members of a
banned activist group, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).
But several residents of Ethiopia's Moyale said that it wasn't
a mistake at all, but was intentional on the part of the soldiers,
and specifically targeted at random at a crowd of residents:
<QUOTE>"It was then a military vehicle came along. The
military jumped out of the car and started shooting aimlessly,
killing indiscriminately. Some of them were killed in their
homes. Some of them were killed while they were having their
lunch. Some others were killed while they were selling in their
shops."<END QUOTE>
Massive anti-government protests began in Ethiopia's Oromia region
late in 2015, and spread to the neighboring Amhara region, leaving
hundreds dead and resulting in tens of thousands of arrests. A state
of emergency was imposed in October 2016, allowing mass detentions,
and imposing numerous restrictions on people’s movement and
communication.
The first state of emergency ended only a few months ago, in August
2017. Anti-government protests began again, and by February there
were millions of protesters. This led to the shock resignation of the
prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn on February 15. In his letter of
resignation, he wrote, "I see my resignation as vital in the bid to
carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace and democracy."
Not surprisingly, Hailemariam's resignation didn't end the protests,
but instead led to more activism. The result was that the
government's Council of Ministers declared a new state of emergency
that "would be instrumental in thwarting ethnic-based conflicts in the
country and safeguarding the constitutional order." The Nation (Kenya) and AFP (14-Mar) and Reuters and AFP
****
**** Fears grow that Ethiopia's ethnic clashes will destabilize the region
****
As I've previously described in a detailed generational analysis of Ethiopia's protests,
Ethiopia's
last generational crisis war occurred in 1991, when the Marxist Derg
dictatorship was overthrown. Since 1991, the government has been
largely controlled by the ethnic Tigrayans, who are a market and
government dominant minority, comprising only 6% of the population.
Although the Tigrayans comprise only a tiny fraction of the
population, the Tigrayan governing coalition has been able to
increasingly marginalized the two largest ethnic groups, the Oromo
ethnic group (34% of Ethiopia's population), and among the Amhara
ethnic group (27%).
The kind of violence that occurred last weekend is typical of what
happens in the generational Awakening era following a generational
crisis war that's also a tribal or ethnic war. In these cases, when
the war ends, the two warring groups reside in the same country, and
sometimes even in the same villages and towns. As a result, memories
of the massacres, rapes, mutilations and torture that occurred during
the war are constantly refreshed by seeing members of the other tribe
on the streets and in the shops.
That certainly seems to be exactly what's happening here. The
government is supposedly investigating what happened on Saturday, and
has promised that the guilty parties will be punished, but the most
likely explanation is that the soldiers were ethnic Tigrayans who
retain bitter memories of how the Oromos killed their wives or sons,
and are getting revenge. No investigation will prevent that from
happening again.
The anti-government protests are far from over, and they pose the
largest challenge to Ethiopia’s ruling coalition since it took power
in 1991.
In the last two years, more than 900,000 people have been forced from
their homes. The Oromo Liberation Front is an activist youth movement
of a kind that is typical in generational Awakening eras (such as
America in the 1960s). Widespread protest strikes have closed down
shops and businesses.
On Monday, a week-long "fuel blockade" protest action began, blocking
roads and preventing fuel tankers from leaving the capital city Addis
Ababa and supplying fuel to other towns.
The government is already without a prime minister, since the
resignation of Hailemariam Desalegn on February 15. The massive
protests and protest actions are threatening the government, and the
brutal state of emergency is apparently having no effect in bringing
the protests under control. With thousands of Ethiopians crossing the
border into Kenya, a country with its own governmental crisis and
ethnic problems, it's feared that the unrest in Ethiopia could spread
to other countries in the Horn of Africa. Guardian (London) and France 24 and Africa News and Bloomberg (6-Mar) and Africa News (28-Feb)
Related Articles
- Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister (17-Feb-2018)
- General warns of US security danger if China acquires Djibouti seaport (11-Mar-2018)
- Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency (10-Oct-2016)
- Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea (14-Jun-2016)
- Tensions rise between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile River dam (25-Jan-2018)
- Ethiopians crush Islamists in Somalia, forcing retreat to Kenya (02-Jan-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Hailemariam Desalegn,
Tigrayans, Oromos, Amharas, Kenya, Moyale, Marsabit County,
Oromo Liberation Front, OLF
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
