04-03-2018, 10:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-04-2018, 07:56 AM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 4-Apr-18 World View -- Russia accelerates delivery of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to Turkey
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russia accelerates delivery of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to Turkey
****
![[Image: g180403b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180403b.jpg)
Russia's advanced S-400 anti-aircraft system (Tass)
In the course of a joint press conference by Turkey's president Recep
Tayyip Erdogan and Russia's president Vladimir Putin, held in Turkey's
capital city Ankara on Tuesday, Erdogan and Putin announced that the
previously scheduled delivery of Russia's advanced S-400 anti-aircraft
missiles at the end of 2019 would be moved up.
At the press conference, Putin said:
<QUOTE>"We have decided with President Erdogan in our meeting
to speed up the delivery of the S-400 systems. Our Turkish
colleagues made a request in the meetings. We will accelerate the
process.
This is an issue of commerce. Companies are working on
it."<END QUOTE>
According to Turkish and Russian media, the S-400 is Russia's most
advanced long-range anti-aircraft missile system with a capacity of
carrying three types of missiles capable of destroying targets
including aircraft, and ballistic and cruise missiles. The system can
track and engage up to 300 targets at a time and has an altitude
ceiling of 27 kilometers (17 miles). In addition, the system’s radars
detect aerial targets at a distance of up to 600 kilometers (373
miles).
So there are some unanswered questions about this deal:
What is the intended target of these S-400 missiles? Is Erdogan
planning to target American warplanes? Israeli warplanes? Iranian
warplanes? Syrian warplanes? Armenian warplanes? Nato warplanes?
And what's the rush? Which of these potential targets has become so
imminently dangerous that Erdogan needs to accelerate the delivery of
the missiles?
In an interview before the press conference, Putin said:
<QUOTE>"A priority task in the sphere of military technical
cooperation is the implementation of the contract for supplies of
S-400 Triumf missile systems to Turkey.
We hope that the sectoral intergovernmental commission will look
into the prospects for further supplies of Russian-made military
hardware to Turkey at its next meeting."<END QUOTE>
So the obvious question is: Why is Putin so anxious to sell these
systems to Turkey?
According to other reports, Russia is delivering the same S-400
systems to China. Whom does Putin think that Turkey and China
will be using these anti-aircraft missiles against?
Is Putin really so certain that Turkey and China won't use the S-400
missiles against Russia? Or maybe something deeper is going on --
like a secret way for Russia to disable these missiles remotely?
Nato officials are strongly opposed to this deal between Turkey
and Russia, because Turkey is member of Nato, and so it's important
that all weapons systems of all Nato countries be interoperable
with each other. However, Russia's S-400 system is not interoperable
with other Nato weapons systems, so deploying S-400 systems
represents a sharp rejection by Turkey of its relationship with Nato.
This also provides one more reason why Putin is anxious to deliver
S-400 systems to Turkey as quickly as possible -- to make sure that
Turkey cannot militarily cooperate with Nato. Anadolu (Ankara) and Tass (Moscow) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Tass
****
**** Mainstream media emphasize the love-fest between Turkey and Russia
****
One media story after another on Tuesday described how Vladimir Putin
and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are developing a close personal friendship
that is bring Russia and Turkey closer together, shutting the
U.S. out. For example:
<QUOTE>"Ties between Russia and Turkey are growing closer
than ever, as Russia runs into widespread diplomatic fallout from
the poisoned spy scandal and Turkey's relations with its Western
allies worsens over human rights issues and its military
operations against Kurdish militia in Syria."<END QUOTE>
The "deepening friendship" between Putin and Erdogan can only be
described as bizarre. This is a good time to remind readers that from
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that the behavior of two
nations towards each other depends not on the attitudes of the
politicians, but on the attitudes of the two populations. And
historically, the people of Russia and the people of Turkey hate each
other.
During the last millennium, one of the most bloody and vicious
relationships in the world was the relationship between the people who
have become today's Turks and Russians. As I described in November
2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian warplane
and brought the two countries close to military conflict,
the Crimean Peninsula was the site of several generational
crisis wars between the two.
The Tatars were a tribe of Mongols who, under the leadership of
Genghis Kahn, defeated China, then Russia, where they occupied Crimea.
In 1571, the Crimean Tatars attacked and sacked Moscow. In 1783, Russia
under Catherine the Great annexed Crimea in a war in which the
Ottomans (Turkey) were defeated. The Crimean War (1853-55) was a
disaster for both the Russians and the Turks, though more so for the
Russians, who lost Crimea and other territories on the Black Sea.
World War I saw the destruction of Russia's Tsarist empire and
Turkey's Ottoman Empire.
So it's particularly significant today that Russia has invaded
and annexed Crimea, and has treated the current Tatar population
brutally. The Tatars are historically close to the Turks,
and although we don't read much about this in the media, the
Russian treatment of Tatars must infuriate many Turks.
So it's quite a reasonable question to ask what's going on here,
when these two politicians, Putin and Erdogan, are behaving in
ways that must upset many of the people they represent.
In the past I've described the reasons why China and Russia, whose
populations also respectively hate each other, are allying -- because
both countries are supporting each other in annexing other countries'
territories, as Hitler did prior to World War II. Russia and China
need each other because they need each other's support, in the sense
of "honor among thieves."
Putin and Erdogan have also reached the conclusion that Russia
and Turkey need each other, for several reasons:
In addition, on Tuesday, Putin and Erdogan broke ground on a $20
billion Russian-made nuclear power plant being built on Turkey's
Mediterranean coast at Akkuyu. The project was already launched once
before in February 2015, but was canceled after Turkey shot down the
Russian warplane. Putin said on Tuesday, "This scale of the project
is difficult to exaggerate. This marks a new stage in the development
of Turkey's economy."
This "marriage of convenience" between Putin and Erdogan cannot last,
in view of the centuries of bitter, bloody conflict between the two
countries. At some point, Russia will be forced to choose between the
West versus China and Turkey, and they will choose the West.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast,
Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. AP and
Daily Mail and AFP and RFE/RL
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, S-400 anti-aircraft system,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Afrin,
Crimea, Crimean Tatars, Catherine the Great, Crimean War,
Ottoman Empire, Akkuyu
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia accelerates delivery of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to Turkey
- Mainstream media emphasize the love-fest between Turkey and Russia
****
**** Russia accelerates delivery of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles to Turkey
****
Russia's advanced S-400 anti-aircraft system (Tass)
In the course of a joint press conference by Turkey's president Recep
Tayyip Erdogan and Russia's president Vladimir Putin, held in Turkey's
capital city Ankara on Tuesday, Erdogan and Putin announced that the
previously scheduled delivery of Russia's advanced S-400 anti-aircraft
missiles at the end of 2019 would be moved up.
At the press conference, Putin said:
<QUOTE>"We have decided with President Erdogan in our meeting
to speed up the delivery of the S-400 systems. Our Turkish
colleagues made a request in the meetings. We will accelerate the
process.
This is an issue of commerce. Companies are working on
it."<END QUOTE>
According to Turkish and Russian media, the S-400 is Russia's most
advanced long-range anti-aircraft missile system with a capacity of
carrying three types of missiles capable of destroying targets
including aircraft, and ballistic and cruise missiles. The system can
track and engage up to 300 targets at a time and has an altitude
ceiling of 27 kilometers (17 miles). In addition, the system’s radars
detect aerial targets at a distance of up to 600 kilometers (373
miles).
So there are some unanswered questions about this deal:
What is the intended target of these S-400 missiles? Is Erdogan
planning to target American warplanes? Israeli warplanes? Iranian
warplanes? Syrian warplanes? Armenian warplanes? Nato warplanes?
And what's the rush? Which of these potential targets has become so
imminently dangerous that Erdogan needs to accelerate the delivery of
the missiles?
In an interview before the press conference, Putin said:
<QUOTE>"A priority task in the sphere of military technical
cooperation is the implementation of the contract for supplies of
S-400 Triumf missile systems to Turkey.
We hope that the sectoral intergovernmental commission will look
into the prospects for further supplies of Russian-made military
hardware to Turkey at its next meeting."<END QUOTE>
So the obvious question is: Why is Putin so anxious to sell these
systems to Turkey?
According to other reports, Russia is delivering the same S-400
systems to China. Whom does Putin think that Turkey and China
will be using these anti-aircraft missiles against?
Is Putin really so certain that Turkey and China won't use the S-400
missiles against Russia? Or maybe something deeper is going on --
like a secret way for Russia to disable these missiles remotely?
Nato officials are strongly opposed to this deal between Turkey
and Russia, because Turkey is member of Nato, and so it's important
that all weapons systems of all Nato countries be interoperable
with each other. However, Russia's S-400 system is not interoperable
with other Nato weapons systems, so deploying S-400 systems
represents a sharp rejection by Turkey of its relationship with Nato.
This also provides one more reason why Putin is anxious to deliver
S-400 systems to Turkey as quickly as possible -- to make sure that
Turkey cannot militarily cooperate with Nato. Anadolu (Ankara) and Tass (Moscow) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Tass
****
**** Mainstream media emphasize the love-fest between Turkey and Russia
****
One media story after another on Tuesday described how Vladimir Putin
and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are developing a close personal friendship
that is bring Russia and Turkey closer together, shutting the
U.S. out. For example:
<QUOTE>"Ties between Russia and Turkey are growing closer
than ever, as Russia runs into widespread diplomatic fallout from
the poisoned spy scandal and Turkey's relations with its Western
allies worsens over human rights issues and its military
operations against Kurdish militia in Syria."<END QUOTE>
The "deepening friendship" between Putin and Erdogan can only be
described as bizarre. This is a good time to remind readers that from
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that the behavior of two
nations towards each other depends not on the attitudes of the
politicians, but on the attitudes of the two populations. And
historically, the people of Russia and the people of Turkey hate each
other.
During the last millennium, one of the most bloody and vicious
relationships in the world was the relationship between the people who
have become today's Turks and Russians. As I described in November
2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian warplane
and brought the two countries close to military conflict,
the Crimean Peninsula was the site of several generational
crisis wars between the two.
The Tatars were a tribe of Mongols who, under the leadership of
Genghis Kahn, defeated China, then Russia, where they occupied Crimea.
In 1571, the Crimean Tatars attacked and sacked Moscow. In 1783, Russia
under Catherine the Great annexed Crimea in a war in which the
Ottomans (Turkey) were defeated. The Crimean War (1853-55) was a
disaster for both the Russians and the Turks, though more so for the
Russians, who lost Crimea and other territories on the Black Sea.
World War I saw the destruction of Russia's Tsarist empire and
Turkey's Ottoman Empire.
So it's particularly significant today that Russia has invaded
and annexed Crimea, and has treated the current Tatar population
brutally. The Tatars are historically close to the Turks,
and although we don't read much about this in the media, the
Russian treatment of Tatars must infuriate many Turks.
So it's quite a reasonable question to ask what's going on here,
when these two politicians, Putin and Erdogan, are behaving in
ways that must upset many of the people they represent.
In the past I've described the reasons why China and Russia, whose
populations also respectively hate each other, are allying -- because
both countries are supporting each other in annexing other countries'
territories, as Hitler did prior to World War II. Russia and China
need each other because they need each other's support, in the sense
of "honor among thieves."
Putin and Erdogan have also reached the conclusion that Russia
and Turkey need each other, for several reasons:
- Turkey's military operation in Afrin, Syria, is only
possible because Russia is permitting it, as Russia controls
the airspace.
- Turkey has given its blessing for Russian bases in Syria, and is
no longer insisting that the hated Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
must step down.
- Turkey has refused to go along with the accusations by the UK, the
EU and the United States that Russia is responsible for the recent
nerve gas poisoning of a former Russia agent on British soil.
- Turkey is a transit country for Russian natural gas shipments to
Europe.
In addition, on Tuesday, Putin and Erdogan broke ground on a $20
billion Russian-made nuclear power plant being built on Turkey's
Mediterranean coast at Akkuyu. The project was already launched once
before in February 2015, but was canceled after Turkey shot down the
Russian warplane. Putin said on Tuesday, "This scale of the project
is difficult to exaggerate. This marks a new stage in the development
of Turkey's economy."
This "marriage of convenience" between Putin and Erdogan cannot last,
in view of the centuries of bitter, bloody conflict between the two
countries. At some point, Russia will be forced to choose between the
West versus China and Turkey, and they will choose the West.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast,
Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews
against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against
each other. AP and
Daily Mail and AFP and RFE/RL
Related Articles
- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
- Tense Turkey-EU summit in Bulgaria once again ends in failure (28-Mar-2018)
- Turkey achieves victory in Afrin, Syria, but Kurds threaten guerilla war (20-Mar-2018)
- Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft (11-Feb-2018)
- Turkey, Russia and Syria infuriated by the Border Security Force announcement (16-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, S-400 anti-aircraft system,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Afrin,
Crimea, Crimean Tatars, Catherine the Great, Crimean War,
Ottoman Empire, Akkuyu
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
