Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Apr-18 World View -- Ukraine seizes Russian ship in Sea of Azov in retaliation for Kerch Strait blockade

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia builds bridge over Kerch Strait to Crimea, blocking commercial traffic to Ukraine
  
• Ukraine threatens seizure of ships in Sea of Azov travelling to and from Crimea
  

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**** Russia builds bridge over Kerch Strait to Crimea, blocking commercial traffic to Ukraine
****


The Kerch Strait is in the lower right corner, as the tiny strait that separates Crimea and Russia at their closest points, and also separates the Sea of Azov in the north from the Black Sea in the south.

Ever since Russia invaded and illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimea
Peninsula in 2014, Russia has had the problem of shipping goods
between Russia and Crimea.

Russia has taken control of Luhansk and Donetsk in far eastern
Ukraine, as well as Crimea itself, but the region along southern
Ukraine through the Mariupol and Bardyansk seaports is still under
control of Ukraine's government in Kiev.

For a while, the international community was wondering whether the
Russian invaders would continue their invasion through those seaports,
in order to connect a land route from Russia to Crimea, and giving
them complete control of the Sea of Azov. For whatever reason,
possibly because Russia's president Vladimir Putin feared that such a
drastic move might provoke military action from the European Union, no
such invasion occurred.

Apparently the Russians considered several possible solutions,
with the obvious choices being a tunnel under or a bridge
over the Kerch Strait. The Kerch Strait is shown in the above
map in the lower right corner, as the tiny strait that separates
Crimea and Russia at their closest points, and also separates
the Sea of Azov in the north from the Black Sea in the south.

In May 2015, Russia began constructing an 11.8 mile bridge across the
Kerch Strait, said to be the longest bridge in Europe once it's
completed. The project will cost an enormous $5 billion, and there
are concerns that the strait is not sufficiently geologically stable
enough to support the bridge safely. Nonetheless, construction has
gone ahead, and the plan is for the bridge to be open to car traffic
this year, and open to railroad traffic in 2019.

The construction of the bridge has already had a severe effect on
Ukraine's economy. Russia has several times closed the Kerch Strait
to maritime traffic, trapping commercial vessels docked in Mariupol
and Berdyansk seaports. During 2017, freight traffic was reduced 43%
and transshipments shrank by 30%, totally $54 million in 2017. The
losses are expected to be significantly higher in 2018. Jamestown (22-Feb) and Russia Today (3-Mar) and Guardian (London, 31-Aug-2017) and Völkerrechtsblog (10-Jan)

****
**** Ukraine threatens seizure of ships in Sea of Azov travelling to and from Crimea
****


The bridge over Kerch Strait (Russia Today)

On March 26, Ukraine's border service in the Sea of Azov seized the
fishing vessel Nord, on charges of violating Ukraine's territorial
waters. The Russians claim the ship was in international waters. The
Ukrainians claim it illegally entered Ukrainian waters when it docked
in Crimea without Ukrainian permission.

On Wednesday, April 4, Ukraine's Border Service spokesman Oleg
Slobodyan commented on the detention of Russia's Nord vessel, and said
that Ukraine will detain all the ships travelling to and out of Crimea
without Kiev’s consent, Slobodyan said:

<QUOTE>"Ukraine’s position is unequivocal, it considers
Crimea to be an occupied part of its territory so law enforcement
agencies will promptly respond to violations committed by those
travelling in and out of Crimea."<END QUOTE>

So the situation is this:

• Russia is building the bridge over the Kerch Strait, and is
  using it to strangle commerce into Ukraine's seaports of Mariupol and
  Berdyansk, resulting in substantial economic damage to Ukraine.
  
  
• The issue of the seizure of the Nord fishing vessel has not been
  resolved, although some late reports indicate that the crew have been
  released from jail.
  
  
• Ukraine does not recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,
  and still considers Crimea to be part of Ukraine, and this week has
  retaliated against Russia, announcing a new policy in the Sea of Azov
  where Russian ships docking in Crimea will be seized.

There is potentially a major confrontation brewing here, especially if
Ukraine goes through with its new threat of seizing all ships docking
in Crimea. So far, this confrontation has been going on relatively
quietly, but it could change into a full-blown crisis at any time.
Unian (Ukraine) and Sputnik (Russia) and Tass (Russia) and EurAsia Daily (Russia)

Related Articles

• Vladimir Putin brags about how he lied about Russia's invasion of Crimea (10-Mar-2015)
  
  
• Russia massing tanks and troops in Ukraine on northern border of Crimea (10-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Putin gives angry, nationalistic speech annexing Crimea to Russia (19-Mar-2014)
  
  
• Ukraine suspends all commercial trade with occupied Crimea (24-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Vladimir Putin brags about how he lied about Russia's invasion of Crimea (10-Mar-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea,
Luhansk, Donetsk, Mariupol, Bardyansk,
Sea of Azov, Kerch Strait, Black Sea,
Nord fishing vessel, Oleg Slobodyan

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John J. Xenakis
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