Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Apr-18 World View -- As Syria's al-Assad attacks Idlib, he may consider chemical weapons essential

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia ties itself in knots diplomatically over Syria chemical attack
  
• Syria blocks OPCW inspectors from visiting site of chemical attack
  
• As Syria's al-Assad attacks Idlib, he may consider chemical weapons essential
  
• Syria TV says that its Shayrat airbase has been attacked by missiles
  

****
**** Russia ties itself in knots diplomatically over Syria chemical attack
****


Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov (Tass)

On Friday, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said
that he had "irrefutable evidence" that the April 7 chemical
attack Syria's Damascus suburb Douma had been staged:

<QUOTE>"We have the irrefutable data that this [chemical
attack] was staged.

And special services of a country, which is now seeking to be in
the first ranks of the Russophobic campaign, were involved in this
staged event."<END QUOTE>

Lavrov did not name the country, but other Russian officials have said
that Lavrov was referring to the UK, and said that the British
government has paid a group of volunteer rescue workers, known as the
White Helmets, "to stage a provocation with an alleged use of chemical
weapons."

In an interview of Lavrov by BBC's HardTalk, Steven Sachur repeatedly
asked what this "irrefutable data" was, and Lavrov never answered the
question, but kept personally attacking Sachur. Not surprisingly, no
such irrefutable data exists.

According to a statement by the British government:

<QUOTE>"Russia has argued that the attack on Douma was
somehow staged, or faked. They have even suggested that the UK
was behind the attack. That is ludicrous. The attack on Douma was
not reported by just a sole source in opposition to the
Regime. There are multiple eye witness accounts, substantial video
footage, accounts from first responders and medical
evidence."<END QUOTE>

Russia is tied up in knots about this subject because lie after lie
have caught up with one another. After Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas
on his own people in 2013, Lavrov first denied that any Sarin attack
had taken place, then denied that al-Assad had any stockpiles of Sarin
gas, and then committed to US Secretary of State John Kerry that all
stockpiles of chemical weapons would be removed. Under international
pressure, Lavrov committed that Russia would guarantee that all
chemical weapons would be removed.

So you can see the problem. Russia has to deny that any attack took
place on April 7, because Russia has guaranteed that al-Assad has no
stockpiles of chemical weapons. That's why Russia is diplomatically
tied up in knots.

Lavrov made an additional interesting statement during the interview.
He was asked whether relations between Russia and the West are worse
than during the cold war:

<QUOTE>"Well I think it's worse because during the cold war
there were channels of communication, and there was no obsession
with Russophobia, which looks like genocide by
sanctions."<END QUOTE>

His accusation of "genocide by sanctions" is startling, and the
"Russophobia" remark is common to both of Lavrov's comments quoted
above, and reflects a pervasive paranoia in Russia's leadership. I've
previously quoted a high-level Russian official claiming that the West has been attacking Russia for 200 years.
All this talk about staging the chemical attack as a kind of
Hollywood horror film and blaming it on the UK, combined with
paranoia, seems highly delusional and worrying. Russia's leadership
is in a very dangerous state right now, and could make a
miscalculation and mistake. UK Government and Tass (13-Apr) and NBC News (13-Apr) and Russia Today (13-Apr) and BBC HardTalk


****
**** Syria blocks OPCW inspectors from visiting site of chemical attack
****

Syria has been for several days blocking the Organization for the
Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) from inspecting the Douma site.
The OPCW held an emergency meeting in Hague on Monday, and
demanded immediate unfettered access to the site of the attack.

Russians have already been inspecting the site since the day after the
April 7 chemical attack. We know that because the Russians have said
that these "experts" had visited and determined that there was no
evidence of a chemical attack. So these "experts" have already had
ten days to clean up as much evidence as they can.

There were also reports by a correspondent on al-Jazeera that
local Syrians in Douma are being threatened by Syrian security
forces with violence to themselves and their families if
they give the OPCW inspectors any evidence of the chemical attack.

Late on Monday, Syria said that they could go on Wednesday, April 18.
Deutsche Welle and Tass (9-Apr) and Al-Jazeera


****
**** As Syria's al-Assad attacks Idlib, he may consider chemical weapons essential
****

The military strategy used by Bashar al-Assad in Douma and Ghouta, and
earlier in Aleppo, depends heavily on repeated use of chemical
weapons, particularly chlorine attacks. His objective in these cities
is genocide and ethnic cleansing -- to kill as many Sunnis as
possible, since he says that all Sunnis in these cities are
terrorists, including women and children.

The problem that al-Assad has faced is that people hide in basements,
and so clearing out the entire population of Sunnis requires
destroying all buildings as much as possible, then house to house
searches to find all the Sunnis still hiding from the army. That
process will work, but it can take many months.

Use of chlorine gas speeds things up considerably. Chlorine is
heavier than air, and the chlorine gas seeps into the basement of
every home, forcing the women and children out into the open, where
al-Assad can mop them up and kill them all simultaneously. This could
save considerable time, and undoubtedly has already.

Idlib province presents special problems for al-Assad. Whereas Ghouta
and Aleppo each had just a few hundred thousand residents, Idlib has
over two million. In fact, many of the people who fled the violence
in Aleppo and Ghouta ended up fleeing to Idlib. So for al-Assad,
Idlib contains over two million terrorists.

To exterminate all those residents of Aleppo with just
conventional weapons will take al-Assad a long time, possibly
years. Al-Assad would like to mop up the entire population a
lot more quickly than that.

There have been news reports that al-Assad has been smiling and
happy since Saturday's coalition airstrikes, because even though
a few buildings were demolished, the airstrikes actually gave
al-Assad the green light he needs to proceed with ethnic
cleansing and genocide in Idlib:

• Saturday's attack was little more than a slap on the wrist for
  al-Assad. He undoubtedly has other labs that can produce chemical
  weapons, and he undoubtedly has other stocks of chemical weapons
  elsewhere.
  
  
• The West has only condemned chemical weapons use by al-Assad,
  meaning that any other form of mass slaughter is perfectly
  acceptable.
  
  
• In fact, al-Assad has conducted numerous chlorine attacks. The
  one on April 7 has been called out only because of the horrific
  videos. So al-Assad can even conduct further chemical weapons
  attacks, provided that he does something to prevent any viral
  videos.
  
  
• Furthermore, if al-Assad uses chlorine gas again, it's
  likely that the international opposition to another strike
  on al-Assad's assets will make it impossible.

So Bashar al-Assad has plenty of reason to be smiling and happy now.
He will undoubtedly use chlorine gas to force women and children out
into the open where his missiles can kill masses of them
simultaneously. Basically, there is nothing stopping him from
committing any war crimes or ethnic cleansing or genocide in Idlib.
Bashar al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster so far this century,
and Vladimir Putin and Ayatollah Khamenei are war criminals for
participating in his genocide. France Diplomatie and Reuters and AFP and Syria Deeply (29-Mar)

Related Articles:

• American, British, French attack on Syria signals sharp change in Western policy (15-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Russia-China strategy to use the UN to control Western foreign policy has stopped working (29-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Russia's policies thrown into confusion as US resumes its 'world policeman' role (09-Apr-2017)
  
  
• U.S. preparing for worst-case chemical weapons scenario in Syria (13-Oct-2012)
  
  
• Syria crosses a 'red line' with chemical weapons (20-Mar-2013)
  

****
**** Syria TV says that its Shayrat airbase has been attacked by missiles
****

Syria's state television says that its airbase at Shayrat in Homs
province and Dumair military airport near Damascus have been
attacked by missiles. Syria says that all missiles were shot
down without reaching their targets.

Shayrat air base was the target of the US missile strikes launched
by the US a year ago in response to Sarin gas attacks by Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad on April 4, 2017.

However, in this case, the US says that there was no U.S.
military activity in the area at that time.

This situation is similar to the one that occurred on Monday of last
week, when Syria's T4 airbase was attacked by missiles, but not by
American missiles. It turned out that the missile attack came from
Israel. Reuters and Middle East Eye

Related Articles:

• Iran, Hezbollah and Syria threaten retaliation against Israel (15-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Syria reports that it's under missile attack, 'likely' by the US (09-Apr-2018)
  
  
• President Trump plans military action on Syria after horrific nerve gas attack on civilians (06-Apr-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Sergei Lavrov,
Douma, White Helmets, Britain, Steven Sachur, John Kerry,
Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, OPCW,
Idlib, Aleppo, Ghouta, chlorine,
Shayrat airbase, Dumair military airport

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John J. Xenakis
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