04-19-2018, 10:00 PM
*** 20-Apr-18 World View -- Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution
****
![[Image: g180419b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180419b.jpg)
New president Miguel Díaz-Canel (L) and former president Raúl Castro (EPA)
Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez assumed the dictatorship of Cuba on
Thursday, as hand-picked successor to 86-year-old Raúl Castro, who is
stepping down. Raúl Castro was the hand-picked successor to Fidel
Castro when the latter stepped down in 2008.
He said that there would be no "capitalist restoration," and
promised to continue the Socialist "Cuban revolution":
<QUOTE>"In Cuba there is no space for those who aspire for a
restoration of capitalism. The mandate given by the people to
this house is to give continuity to the Cuban revolution in a
crucial historic moment.
“I assume this responsibility with the conviction that all we
revolutionaries, from any trench, will be faithful to Fidel and
Raúl, the current leader of the revolutionary process.
We will have to exercise an increasingly collective
leadership. Strengthening the participation of the people.
I do not come to promise anything, as the Revolution never has in
all these years. I come to fulfill the program that we have
implemented with the guidelines of Socialism and the Revolution.
To those who through ignorance or bad faith doubt our commitment,
we must tell them that the Revolution continues and will continue.
The world has received the wrong message that the Revolution ends
with its guerrillas."<END QUOTE>
Díaz-Canel was born in 1960, the year of the Cuban revolution. From
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, he is in the same
generational class as America's Boomers born in 1945 (at the end of
World War II). He will not have anything like the revolutionary
fervor of the Castros, but will be more likely to seek compromise and
avoid conflict. On the other hand, he undoubtedly thinks that the
Castros' generation made some mistakes. It remains to be seen what
will happen, but it's possible that he may consider one of those
mistakes to be the unending hostility to the Cuban community in
Florida.
Many commentators are saying that this is an "opportunity" for
President Trump to improve relations with Cuba. Actually, this is
much more an opportunity for Díaz-Canel to improve relations with the
United States. If he decides to soften Cuba's policy with the US and
Cuban-Americans, it's possible that the Trump administration will
respond with better relations. RadioRebelde (Cuba) and Granma (Cuba) and Guardian (London)
****
**** The Socialist delusion in Cuba
****
News commentators are saying that the retirement of Raúl Castro is the
most important event in Cuba's recent history. Others say that the
most important moment was president Barack Obama's opening to Cuba in
2014. Others say that the most important moment occurred in 2008,
when Fidel Castro stepped down.
Well, in my opinion the most important moment in Cuba's recent history
occurred in 2010, when Cuba's economy was in shambles, and president
Raúl Castro announced the end of the Socialist economy.
The government would lay off 500,000 government
workers (Socialist bureaucrats) and privatize many businesses.
Here are the excerpts of the announcement that I quoted:
<QUOTE>"After 52 years, the Cuban Revolution is a living
and unshakable direction for the nation, and our people's will and
determination to continue the construction of socialism, and make
further progress in the development and updating of the economic
model we must follow, and consolidate the gains achieved. ...
Cuba faces the urgent need to move forward economically, better
organize production, enhance productivity and raise reserves,
improve discipline and efficiency and this is only possible
through the dignified and devoted to our people. Today, the duty
of the Cubans is to work and do it well, with seriousness and
responsibility, and to make better use of resources available to
better serve our needs.
In order to update the economic model and economic projects for
the 2011-2015 period, the guidelines call for the reduction of
more than 500,000 workers in the public sector and in parallel the
increase in non-state sector.
The timetable for implementation [of the reduction] for agencies
and businesses is the first quarter of 2011. ...
Our state neither can nor should continue to burden companies and
productive organizations with services and inflated budgets that
weigh down the economy, are counterproductive, create bad habits
and distort the behavior of workers. It is necessary to increase
production and quality of services, reduce social spending and
eliminate bulky improper gratuities, excessive subsidies.
Hundreds of thousands of workers will move to self-employment in
the coming years.
Within the state sector, it will only be possible to go to places
with a historical workforce deficit, such as agriculture,
construction, teachers, police, industrial workers and others.
A matter of singular importance is the salary. We must
reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay to
each according to the quantity and quality of work provided.
The unity of the Cuban workers and our people has been key to
maximizing the gigantic edifice built by the Revolution and the
changes that we are now undertaking she will continue to be our
most important strategic weapon."<END QUOTE>
There's one part of this statement that I didn't sufficiently
highlight when I first quoted it.
Marx's Socialist Principle Of Distribution is "From each according to
abilities, to each according to needs." This means that greedy
capitalists are not allowed to make more money than they need at the
expense of starving workers.
Unsurprisingly, this principle has been a total economic disaster
every time it's been tried. Cuba's 2010 announcement says:
<QUOTE>"A matter of singular importance is the salary. We
must reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay
to each according to the quantity and quality of work
provided."<END QUOTE>
In this case, "reinvigorate" means "abandon the core principle of
Socialism." Cuba may still call itself Socialist, but as a matter of
definition it's more Fascist than Socialist.
This is not a surprise. Socialism has a 100% failure record, and I've
posted the reason many times.
As I've written many times in the past, Socialism is mathematically
impossible as population grows. The number of regulators grows
exponentially faster than the population grows, so by the time you get
to, say, a million people, everyone would have to be a regulator.
When you impose Socialism on an existing wealthy population, as was
done in Venezuela, and what Bernie Sanders would like to do to the US,
then it works ok until, as Margaret Thatcher would say, the government
runs out of other people's money. Then disaster ensues. This is for
the same reason. If the population has more than a few hundred
thousand people, then there aren't enough government regulators.
A country can save itself from that disaster by retrenching from
Socialism as Cuba and even Russia have done. Sweden also did this,
adopting Socialism in the 1970s, and abandoning it in the 1990s.
North Korea and Venezuela are the disaster that happens when the
country leaders refuse to retrench.
Socialism is the greatest economic disaster in world history. It's
much worse than Naziism or Fascism. The Nazis may have killed tens of
millions of people, but in the last century, Socialism has killed
hundreds of millions of people. Socialism has never succeeded, for
the reasons I've given. Socialism has a 100% failure rate, for the
reasons I've given. There is literally nothing worse than Socialism.
And as I always like to ask, How stupid do you have to be to advocate
a system with a 100% failure rate, that always leads to disaster?
BBC
****
**** Cuba's faltering economy and the dual currency problem
****
As in Venezuela, Socialism has been extremely destructive to Cuba's
economy. There is one unique thing about Cuba's economy, however.
Ever since the Cuban revolution in 1960, Cuba has been depending on
other Socialist countries to provide money to prop up its economy.
For decades, the Soviet Union supplied that money. When the Soviet
Union collapsed in 1991, Cuba's economy tanked. The Venezuela started
providing money to Cuba, and Cuba was OK again. For two decades,
Venezuela provided $6 billion per year to Cuba. But Venezuela's
Socialist economy has been suffering its own catastrophic collapse in
the last few years, and can no longer subsidize Cuba.
Cuba is said to be searching for another country to provide free
money, and they're talking to Russia and China. But Russia and China
have their own economic problems, and they're also being asked to prop
up Venezuela's failing Socialist economy.
Cuba could be helped in another way, if international investors were
willing to invest in businesses in Cuba. However, investors would
have to know that they will be allowed to extract their money in later
years, which would require reforms to the banking system.
Cuba would also have to do away with its "dual currency system" before
investors would be interested. The new president, Miguel Mario
Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, has promised to reform the dual currency
system, but that is strongly opposed by Cuba's élite class.
The bizarre dual currency system means that Cuba has two currencies --
Cuban peso (CUP) and the Cuban convertible peso (CUC). The CUC
is pegged to the dollar, while the CUP worth 1/25th of a CUC.
As one example, Cuba's peasants get paid in the cheap CUP currency,
but the élites with government connections receive huge subsidies by
converting their cheap CUPs for expensive CUCs.
Díaz-Canel has said that he would do away with dual currencies, but
other problems run deep in the economy. Despite the 2010 reforms, the
government still employs three of every four Cuban workers, and they
are mostly bureaucrats who produce little or nothing. The average
monthly state salary is $31 — so low that workers often live on stolen
goods and handouts from relatives overseas, according to reports.
Cuba is close to economic collapse, and needs help from another
nation. Díaz-Canel might turn to Russia or China, or he might turn to
the U.S. and work to bring 50 years of hostility to an end. It will
be interesting to watch and see what happens. AP and Bloomberg and Economist (23-Oct-2013)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cuba, Raúl Castro, Fidel Castro,
Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, Socialist Principle Of Distribution,
Venezuela, Soviet Union, Russia, China,
Cuban peso, CUP, Cuban convertible peso, CUC
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution
- The Socialist delusion in Cuba
- Cuba's faltering economy and the dual currency problem
****
**** Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution
****
New president Miguel Díaz-Canel (L) and former president Raúl Castro (EPA)
Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez assumed the dictatorship of Cuba on
Thursday, as hand-picked successor to 86-year-old Raúl Castro, who is
stepping down. Raúl Castro was the hand-picked successor to Fidel
Castro when the latter stepped down in 2008.
He said that there would be no "capitalist restoration," and
promised to continue the Socialist "Cuban revolution":
<QUOTE>"In Cuba there is no space for those who aspire for a
restoration of capitalism. The mandate given by the people to
this house is to give continuity to the Cuban revolution in a
crucial historic moment.
“I assume this responsibility with the conviction that all we
revolutionaries, from any trench, will be faithful to Fidel and
Raúl, the current leader of the revolutionary process.
We will have to exercise an increasingly collective
leadership. Strengthening the participation of the people.
I do not come to promise anything, as the Revolution never has in
all these years. I come to fulfill the program that we have
implemented with the guidelines of Socialism and the Revolution.
To those who through ignorance or bad faith doubt our commitment,
we must tell them that the Revolution continues and will continue.
The world has received the wrong message that the Revolution ends
with its guerrillas."<END QUOTE>
Díaz-Canel was born in 1960, the year of the Cuban revolution. From
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, he is in the same
generational class as America's Boomers born in 1945 (at the end of
World War II). He will not have anything like the revolutionary
fervor of the Castros, but will be more likely to seek compromise and
avoid conflict. On the other hand, he undoubtedly thinks that the
Castros' generation made some mistakes. It remains to be seen what
will happen, but it's possible that he may consider one of those
mistakes to be the unending hostility to the Cuban community in
Florida.
Many commentators are saying that this is an "opportunity" for
President Trump to improve relations with Cuba. Actually, this is
much more an opportunity for Díaz-Canel to improve relations with the
United States. If he decides to soften Cuba's policy with the US and
Cuban-Americans, it's possible that the Trump administration will
respond with better relations. RadioRebelde (Cuba) and Granma (Cuba) and Guardian (London)
****
**** The Socialist delusion in Cuba
****
News commentators are saying that the retirement of Raúl Castro is the
most important event in Cuba's recent history. Others say that the
most important moment was president Barack Obama's opening to Cuba in
2014. Others say that the most important moment occurred in 2008,
when Fidel Castro stepped down.
Well, in my opinion the most important moment in Cuba's recent history
occurred in 2010, when Cuba's economy was in shambles, and president
Raúl Castro announced the end of the Socialist economy.
The government would lay off 500,000 government
workers (Socialist bureaucrats) and privatize many businesses.
Here are the excerpts of the announcement that I quoted:
<QUOTE>"After 52 years, the Cuban Revolution is a living
and unshakable direction for the nation, and our people's will and
determination to continue the construction of socialism, and make
further progress in the development and updating of the economic
model we must follow, and consolidate the gains achieved. ...
Cuba faces the urgent need to move forward economically, better
organize production, enhance productivity and raise reserves,
improve discipline and efficiency and this is only possible
through the dignified and devoted to our people. Today, the duty
of the Cubans is to work and do it well, with seriousness and
responsibility, and to make better use of resources available to
better serve our needs.
In order to update the economic model and economic projects for
the 2011-2015 period, the guidelines call for the reduction of
more than 500,000 workers in the public sector and in parallel the
increase in non-state sector.
The timetable for implementation [of the reduction] for agencies
and businesses is the first quarter of 2011. ...
Our state neither can nor should continue to burden companies and
productive organizations with services and inflated budgets that
weigh down the economy, are counterproductive, create bad habits
and distort the behavior of workers. It is necessary to increase
production and quality of services, reduce social spending and
eliminate bulky improper gratuities, excessive subsidies.
Hundreds of thousands of workers will move to self-employment in
the coming years.
Within the state sector, it will only be possible to go to places
with a historical workforce deficit, such as agriculture,
construction, teachers, police, industrial workers and others.
A matter of singular importance is the salary. We must
reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay to
each according to the quantity and quality of work provided.
The unity of the Cuban workers and our people has been key to
maximizing the gigantic edifice built by the Revolution and the
changes that we are now undertaking she will continue to be our
most important strategic weapon."<END QUOTE>
There's one part of this statement that I didn't sufficiently
highlight when I first quoted it.
Marx's Socialist Principle Of Distribution is "From each according to
abilities, to each according to needs." This means that greedy
capitalists are not allowed to make more money than they need at the
expense of starving workers.
Unsurprisingly, this principle has been a total economic disaster
every time it's been tried. Cuba's 2010 announcement says:
<QUOTE>"A matter of singular importance is the salary. We
must reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay
to each according to the quantity and quality of work
provided."<END QUOTE>
In this case, "reinvigorate" means "abandon the core principle of
Socialism." Cuba may still call itself Socialist, but as a matter of
definition it's more Fascist than Socialist.
This is not a surprise. Socialism has a 100% failure record, and I've
posted the reason many times.
As I've written many times in the past, Socialism is mathematically
impossible as population grows. The number of regulators grows
exponentially faster than the population grows, so by the time you get
to, say, a million people, everyone would have to be a regulator.
When you impose Socialism on an existing wealthy population, as was
done in Venezuela, and what Bernie Sanders would like to do to the US,
then it works ok until, as Margaret Thatcher would say, the government
runs out of other people's money. Then disaster ensues. This is for
the same reason. If the population has more than a few hundred
thousand people, then there aren't enough government regulators.
A country can save itself from that disaster by retrenching from
Socialism as Cuba and even Russia have done. Sweden also did this,
adopting Socialism in the 1970s, and abandoning it in the 1990s.
North Korea and Venezuela are the disaster that happens when the
country leaders refuse to retrench.
Socialism is the greatest economic disaster in world history. It's
much worse than Naziism or Fascism. The Nazis may have killed tens of
millions of people, but in the last century, Socialism has killed
hundreds of millions of people. Socialism has never succeeded, for
the reasons I've given. Socialism has a 100% failure rate, for the
reasons I've given. There is literally nothing worse than Socialism.
And as I always like to ask, How stupid do you have to be to advocate
a system with a 100% failure rate, that always leads to disaster?
BBC
****
**** Cuba's faltering economy and the dual currency problem
****
As in Venezuela, Socialism has been extremely destructive to Cuba's
economy. There is one unique thing about Cuba's economy, however.
Ever since the Cuban revolution in 1960, Cuba has been depending on
other Socialist countries to provide money to prop up its economy.
For decades, the Soviet Union supplied that money. When the Soviet
Union collapsed in 1991, Cuba's economy tanked. The Venezuela started
providing money to Cuba, and Cuba was OK again. For two decades,
Venezuela provided $6 billion per year to Cuba. But Venezuela's
Socialist economy has been suffering its own catastrophic collapse in
the last few years, and can no longer subsidize Cuba.
Cuba is said to be searching for another country to provide free
money, and they're talking to Russia and China. But Russia and China
have their own economic problems, and they're also being asked to prop
up Venezuela's failing Socialist economy.
Cuba could be helped in another way, if international investors were
willing to invest in businesses in Cuba. However, investors would
have to know that they will be allowed to extract their money in later
years, which would require reforms to the banking system.
Cuba would also have to do away with its "dual currency system" before
investors would be interested. The new president, Miguel Mario
Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, has promised to reform the dual currency
system, but that is strongly opposed by Cuba's élite class.
The bizarre dual currency system means that Cuba has two currencies --
Cuban peso (CUP) and the Cuban convertible peso (CUC). The CUC
is pegged to the dollar, while the CUP worth 1/25th of a CUC.
As one example, Cuba's peasants get paid in the cheap CUP currency,
but the élites with government connections receive huge subsidies by
converting their cheap CUPs for expensive CUCs.
Díaz-Canel has said that he would do away with dual currencies, but
other problems run deep in the economy. Despite the 2010 reforms, the
government still employs three of every four Cuban workers, and they
are mostly bureaucrats who produce little or nothing. The average
monthly state salary is $31 — so low that workers often live on stolen
goods and handouts from relatives overseas, according to reports.
Cuba is close to economic collapse, and needs help from another
nation. Díaz-Canel might turn to Russia or China, or he might turn to
the U.S. and work to bring 50 years of hostility to an end. It will
be interesting to watch and see what happens. AP and Bloomberg and Economist (23-Oct-2013)
Related Articles:
- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications (16-Sep-2010)
- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications (16-Sep-2010)
- From Cuba to China, people worry about demise of Venezuela's Chavez (03-Jul-2011)
- Cuba's shift is similar to E. Germany, Hungary, Poland, others (18-Dec-2014)
- Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard (06-Aug-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cuba, Raúl Castro, Fidel Castro,
Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, Socialist Principle Of Distribution,
Venezuela, Soviet Union, Russia, China,
Cuban peso, CUP, Cuban convertible peso, CUC
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
