04-21-2018, 09:37 PM
*** 22-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** North Korea promised to denuclearize in 2008, and proved its sincerity
****
![[Image: g180421b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180421b.jpg)
This picture of the destruction of the nuclear reactor cooling tower in North Korea in 2008 went viral (AP)
In 2008, the North Koreans committed to denuclearization, and to prove
it, they blew up a nuclear reactor cooling tower. The reaction from
the West was euphoric. North Korea was taken off the international
terror list, and many sanctions were immediately removed.
Here's an AP news story from June 27, 2008:
<QUOTE>"North Korea destroyed the most visible symbol of its
nuclear weapons program today, blasting apart the cooling tower at
its main atomic reactor. ...
The demolition of the 60-foot-tall cooling tower at the North's
main reactor complex is a response to America's concessions after
the North delivered a declaration yesterday of its nuclear
programs to be dismantled.
"This is a very important step in the disablement process and I
think it puts us in a good position to move into the next phase,"
the U.S. State Department's top expert on the Koreas, Sung Kim,
who attended the demolition, said. Kim shook hands with a North
Korean official following the tower's tumble to the ground.
In its first reaction to the developments this week, North Korea's
Foreign Ministry welcomed Washington's decision to take the
country off the U.S. trade and sanctions blacklists.
"The U.S. measure should lead to a complete and all-out withdrawal
of its hostile policy toward (the North) so that the
denuclearization process can proceed smoothly," the ministry said
in a statement carried by the official (North) Korean Central News
Agency.<END QUOTE>
It was all very sweet and friendly, except that North Korea kept on
secretly developing nuclear weapons, and a year later started testing
again. The North Korean promises were completely meaningless, but
they got major concessions that remained for years. AP (27-June-2008)
****
**** North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site
****
In what some analysts are calling a "dramatic about-face,"
North Korea promised on Saturday to end all nuclear and missile
tests and shut down a nuclear test site. Instead, the country
will pursue economic growth and a "strong Socialist economy."
According to the (North) Korean Central News Agency (KCNA):
<QUOTE>"[U]nder the proven condition of complete nuclear
weapons, we no longer need any nuclear tests, mid-range and
intercontinental ballistic rocket tests, and that the nuclear test
site in northern area has also completed its mission. ...
To secure transparency on the suspension of nuclear tests, we will
close the republic's northern nuclear test site.
Nuclear development has proceeded scientifically and in due order
and the development of the delivery strike means also proceeded
scientifically and verified the completion of nuclear weapons.
We no longer need any nuclear test or test launches of
intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles and
because of this, the northern nuclear test site has finished its
mission. ...
We will concentrate all efforts on building a powerful socialist
economy and markedly improving the standard of people’s living
through the mobilization of all human and material resources of
the country,"<END QUOTE>
I am totally incapable of figuring out why anyone would think that
this is some sort of about-face or breakthrough. In fact, this is a
statement of the West's worst nightmare.
North Korea will stop nuclear weapon and ballistic missile testing,
but will keep their existing weapons, and will continue development
without open testing.. In the past, the North Koreans have said that
they will manufacture an arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic
missiles. Furthermore, North Korea has sold chemical weapons
technology to Syria and other countries, and will do the same with
nuclear technology.
There is no mention of North Korean "denuclearization." Instead, the
statement elsewhere says "(It's an) important process for global
nuclear disarmament," meaning that North Korea will happily
denuclearize of the rest of the world denuclearizes.
In January, the North announced that all there would be no testing
during the Winter Olympics games being held in Seoul. So this
new announcement is just an extension and repetition of the previous
one.
I've heard a couple of analysts claim that this announcement
is extremely significant because the North didn't have to do it,
and the fact that they did do it proves that they're sincere.
However, three days ago, president Donald Trump said this,
in reference to his planned meeting with North Korea's
child dictator Kim Jong-un:
<QUOTE>"I hope to have a very successful meeting. If I think
it's a meeting that is not going to be fruitful, we are not going
to go. If the meeting, when I'm there, is not fruitful, I will
respectfully leave the meeting."<END QUOTE>
So it's possible that North Korean officials decided to make
Saturday's announcement in response to Trump's remarks. From the
North's point of view, Trump's meeting with Kim will send the
following message to the world: North Korea is an advanced nuclear
power, and is an equal to the United States.
Trump and South Korea are demanding that North Korea "denuclearize,"
which means that the North give up all its weapons. This is never
going to happen without a war. The North has been building nuclear
weapons for decades, and they will not stop now just when they are
finally building their arsenal.
Really, the situation hasn't changed since the beginning of the year:
Either North Korea will have an arsenal of nuclear weapons and
ballistic missiles that can reach the United States, as well as Asian
targets that include Japan, or else the US will have to launch a
military strike to take out North Korea's nuclear capabilities, if
such a strike is even possible. Korea Herald
and BBC and
CNN and Korea Times
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, denuclearization, Syria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- North Korea promised to denuclearize in 2008, and proved its sincerity
- North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site
****
**** North Korea promised to denuclearize in 2008, and proved its sincerity
****
This picture of the destruction of the nuclear reactor cooling tower in North Korea in 2008 went viral (AP)
In 2008, the North Koreans committed to denuclearization, and to prove
it, they blew up a nuclear reactor cooling tower. The reaction from
the West was euphoric. North Korea was taken off the international
terror list, and many sanctions were immediately removed.
Here's an AP news story from June 27, 2008:
<QUOTE>"North Korea destroyed the most visible symbol of its
nuclear weapons program today, blasting apart the cooling tower at
its main atomic reactor. ...
The demolition of the 60-foot-tall cooling tower at the North's
main reactor complex is a response to America's concessions after
the North delivered a declaration yesterday of its nuclear
programs to be dismantled.
"This is a very important step in the disablement process and I
think it puts us in a good position to move into the next phase,"
the U.S. State Department's top expert on the Koreas, Sung Kim,
who attended the demolition, said. Kim shook hands with a North
Korean official following the tower's tumble to the ground.
In its first reaction to the developments this week, North Korea's
Foreign Ministry welcomed Washington's decision to take the
country off the U.S. trade and sanctions blacklists.
"The U.S. measure should lead to a complete and all-out withdrawal
of its hostile policy toward (the North) so that the
denuclearization process can proceed smoothly," the ministry said
in a statement carried by the official (North) Korean Central News
Agency.<END QUOTE>
It was all very sweet and friendly, except that North Korea kept on
secretly developing nuclear weapons, and a year later started testing
again. The North Korean promises were completely meaningless, but
they got major concessions that remained for years. AP (27-June-2008)
****
**** North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site
****
In what some analysts are calling a "dramatic about-face,"
North Korea promised on Saturday to end all nuclear and missile
tests and shut down a nuclear test site. Instead, the country
will pursue economic growth and a "strong Socialist economy."
According to the (North) Korean Central News Agency (KCNA):
<QUOTE>"[U]nder the proven condition of complete nuclear
weapons, we no longer need any nuclear tests, mid-range and
intercontinental ballistic rocket tests, and that the nuclear test
site in northern area has also completed its mission. ...
To secure transparency on the suspension of nuclear tests, we will
close the republic's northern nuclear test site.
Nuclear development has proceeded scientifically and in due order
and the development of the delivery strike means also proceeded
scientifically and verified the completion of nuclear weapons.
We no longer need any nuclear test or test launches of
intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles and
because of this, the northern nuclear test site has finished its
mission. ...
We will concentrate all efforts on building a powerful socialist
economy and markedly improving the standard of people’s living
through the mobilization of all human and material resources of
the country,"<END QUOTE>
I am totally incapable of figuring out why anyone would think that
this is some sort of about-face or breakthrough. In fact, this is a
statement of the West's worst nightmare.
North Korea will stop nuclear weapon and ballistic missile testing,
but will keep their existing weapons, and will continue development
without open testing.. In the past, the North Koreans have said that
they will manufacture an arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic
missiles. Furthermore, North Korea has sold chemical weapons
technology to Syria and other countries, and will do the same with
nuclear technology.
There is no mention of North Korean "denuclearization." Instead, the
statement elsewhere says "(It's an) important process for global
nuclear disarmament," meaning that North Korea will happily
denuclearize of the rest of the world denuclearizes.
In January, the North announced that all there would be no testing
during the Winter Olympics games being held in Seoul. So this
new announcement is just an extension and repetition of the previous
one.
I've heard a couple of analysts claim that this announcement
is extremely significant because the North didn't have to do it,
and the fact that they did do it proves that they're sincere.
However, three days ago, president Donald Trump said this,
in reference to his planned meeting with North Korea's
child dictator Kim Jong-un:
<QUOTE>"I hope to have a very successful meeting. If I think
it's a meeting that is not going to be fruitful, we are not going
to go. If the meeting, when I'm there, is not fruitful, I will
respectfully leave the meeting."<END QUOTE>
So it's possible that North Korean officials decided to make
Saturday's announcement in response to Trump's remarks. From the
North's point of view, Trump's meeting with Kim will send the
following message to the world: North Korea is an advanced nuclear
power, and is an equal to the United States.
Trump and South Korea are demanding that North Korea "denuclearize,"
which means that the North give up all its weapons. This is never
going to happen without a war. The North has been building nuclear
weapons for decades, and they will not stop now just when they are
finally building their arsenal.
Really, the situation hasn't changed since the beginning of the year:
Either North Korea will have an arsenal of nuclear weapons and
ballistic missiles that can reach the United States, as well as Asian
targets that include Japan, or else the US will have to launch a
military strike to take out North Korea's nuclear capabilities, if
such a strike is even possible. Korea Herald
and BBC and
CNN and Korea Times
Related Articles:
- South Korean politicians are 'euphoric' over North Korea nuclear deal (16-Feb-2007)
- China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions (25-Feb-2018)
- US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics (21-Feb-2018)
- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
- NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
- North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration (18-Jan-2018)
- North Korea reveals major change in strategic direction (05-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, denuclearization, Syria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
