Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-May-18 World View -- Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements
  
• Theresa May's two delusional proposals - Customs Partnership and Maximum Facilitation
  

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**** Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements
****


Boris Johnson and Theresa May (PA)

Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson on Monday declared that the
proposal by prime minister Theresa May to resolve Brexit issues was
"crazy."

This has caused quite a sensation, because a high level cabinet
minister is not supposed to openly criticize a major policy of the
prime minister unless he wants to be fired.

The policy in question, called a "Customs Partnership," is indeed
delusional, but in today's highly polarized world, where a man can
lose his career for saying the wrong thing about whether he supports
Trump, then you have to be willing to support even delusional policies
if you want to keep your job.

In this case, however, May's spokesman said that the prime minister
had "full confidence" in Johnson, and told officials "to do more work"
on the proposal.

I've written about Brexit issues many times since the Brexit
referendum passed almost a year ago, on June 23 2017, and the
intractable, insoluble problem is always the same: Keeping a
"frictionless border" between Northern Ireland and (Southern) Republic
of Ireland, despite the fact that Northern Ireland will be part of the
UK, and Ireland will be part of the EU.

Everyone says that there must be a frictionless border, so that
people, trucks and goods can continue to flow freely back and forth
between the two. The current open border was the result of the Good
Friday agreement of 1999 that ended years of "The Troubles," bloody
fighting between the indigenous ethnic Irish Gaelics (the Catholic
Republicans) and the descendants of the English and Scottish invaders
(the Protestant Unionists).

Today there are a lot of people who genuinely fear that fighting will
resume in full force. This is not a trivial concern, in that there's
still a great deal of hatred between some Gaelics and some English,
and there are still walls separating neighborhoods of the Northern
Ireland city of Ulster, where there are still occasional flashes of
violence. (See "23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again"
)

Officially, Britain is scheduled to leave the EU in March 2019. There
are huge unsolved problems having to do with trade, migration,
citizens' rights, and Ireland for which solutions are nowhere in
sight. Ireland and the EU are demanding a proposal on the Ireland
"frictionless border" by June, and it will not be met.

Other deadlines are approaching as well. Concerns are widespread that
the Brexit process is collapsing into a huge, unmanageable mess.

And why wasn't Boris Johnson fired? For that matter, why hasn't
Theresa May lost her job as well. The answer, according to many
analysts I hear, is that nobody else wants these jobs, under the
current circumstances. BBC and Reuters and Express (London) and RTE (Ireland)

****
**** Theresa May's two delusional proposals - Customs Partnership and Maximum Facilitation
****

Any Brexit proposal by Britain also has to be approved by the EU27,
the 27 nations of the EU excluding the UK. Theresa May has two
proposals both of which are delusional for many reasons, not the least
of which is that there is no chance that the EU27 will approve either
of them. But the British politicians and the British press keep
talking about them without even considering whether the EU will
approve them.

One proposal is called the "Customs Partnership." Businesses shipping
goods from foreign countries into Britain will be charged tariffs
according to EU rules. The goods will then be tracked, and if they
stay in Britain, then the businesses can claim a rebate of any
overpayment. If not, then Britain forwards the tariff to the EU.

This leaves the Irish border frictionless, since goods can flow across
the border freely, since the tariff has already been paid.

This is the plan that Boris Johnson is calling "crazy," because
Britain would still be bound by EU rules that the whole Brexit plan
was supposed to free them of:

<QUOTE>"It’s totally untried and would make it very, very
difficult to do free trade deals.

If you have the new customs partnership, you have a crazy system
whereby you end up collecting the tariffs on behalf of the EU at
the UK frontier.

If the EU decides to impose punitive tariffs on something the UK
wants to bring in cheaply there’s nothing you can do.

That’s not taking back control of your trade policy, it’s not
taking back control of your laws, it’s not taking back control of
your borders and it’s actually not taking back control of your
money either, because tariffs would get paid centrally back to
Brussels."<END QUOTE>

He said that the plan would create "a whole new web of bureaucracy,"
and would not meet the key test of Britain "taking back control" from
Brussels. In other words, the Customs Partnership would defeat the
whole purpose of Brexit.

Theresa May's second proposal is called "Maximum Facilitation."

Shipping firms would operate as "trusted traders" so they can move
goods freely as EU tariff is only paid when goods arrive in
destination country. Goods would be electronically tracked and
pre-cleared with tax authorities. There would be a frictionless
border in Ireland, because goods would move freely back and forth, and
would be tracked by means of some yet to be developed technology.

The EU has dismissed this proposal as "magical thinking," because it
assumes that "trusted traders" can be trusted, and because the
required technology is not possible in the foreseeable future.
Daily Mail (London) and The Week (UK) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles

• Ireland border issue continues to confound Brexit negotiations (17-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Brexit negotiations collapse over Ireland border issue (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• The issue of Ireland's border threatens to collapse EU-UK Brexit negotiations. (28-Nov-2017)
  
  
• European anger and British self-delusion follow Brexit plan speech (19-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Theresa May, Boris Johnson,
Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, The Troubles, Gaelics,
Customs Partnership, Maximum Facilitation, magical thinking

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John J. Xenakis
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