06-09-2018, 10:20 PM
*** 10-Jun-18 World View -- Afghan Taliban launches multiple terror attacks, then declares farcical ceasefire
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Taliban launches multiple terror attacks on Afghan security forces
****
![[Image: g180609b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180609b.jpg)
American soldiers in Camp Bost in Helmand Province, Afghanistan (Getty)
Afghan terrorists launched multiple coordinated attacks on Afghan
security forces on Friday and Saturday. Almost 50 security force
members were killed in Kunduz, Herat and Sar-e-Pul provinces.
According to officials, the Afghan National Army launched operations
in eight other provinces against insurgents, killing over 80 Taliban
and ISIS militants on Friday and Saturday.
The Taliban announced the beginning of its Spring Fighting Season in
mid-May, and clashes and attacks have increased noticeably across the
country, resulting in a rise in casualties among security and defense
force members. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Khaama (Afghanistan)
****
**** The Taliban issues a farcical 3-day ceasefire statement
****
On Saturday, the Taliban issued a farcical statement declaring a 3-day
ceasefire. As usual, Afghan and American political and military
officials are leaping to the bait, hoping that this is a sign that the
Taliban are ready for a "negotiated settlement." Here are some
excerpts:
<QUOTE>"Directives of the Leader for the Mujahideen during
Eid days
In the name of Allah, most Compassionate, most Merciful
In order that our countrymen participate in Eid prayers and other
festivities with complete confidence during the joyous days of
Eid, the Mujahideen of Islamic Emirate must strictly comply with
the following directives:
1 – All Mujahideen are directed to cease all offensive operations
against the domestic opposition forces during the first, second
and third day of Eid however if Mujahideen are attacked, they must
defend with their utmost capability.
2 – Foreign occupiers are excluded from the above order. Continue
your operations against them and target them wherever and whenever
you find an opportunity. ...
5 – The Mujahideen should not participate in civilian
congregations where there could be a danger of airstrikes so that
our inhumane enemy will not be able to use it as an excuse for
their blind bombardments and civilian tragedies."<END QUOTE>
The phrase "the domestic opposition forces" refers to the Afghan
security forces.
So, the Taliban issues this statement declaring a 3-day ceasefire
against "the domestic opposition forces" at the same time that it's
conducting massive coordinated terror attacks against those same
forces.
Furthermore, the "foreign occupiers," referring to the US-led
coalition forces, are not included in the ceasefire.
The Taliban have repeatedly said that their objective is to force the
US-led coalition forces to leave, after which they would easily defeat
"the domestic opposition forces" in many parts of the country.
Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Long War Journal
****
**** Special Inspector General issues scathing report on US military in Afghanistan
****
The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)
has issued a "lessons learned" report for 2018 on the US experience in
trying to implement a stabilization strategy in Afghanistan. The
report says that pretty much everything the US forces did in
Afghanistan was a failure, and that's a conclusion I agree with.
Before providing excerpts, let me remind long-time readers that I've
been writing for almost ten years that a simple Generational Dynamics
analysis shows that any sort of victory or stabilization against the
Taliban is literally impossible.
As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis
war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which
mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later
formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later,
Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young
generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their
parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern
Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.
But you don't have to know anything about generational history to
understand what's going on. You just have to understand that there
was an extremely bloody, violent civil war in 1991-96, pitting the
Pashtuns versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in
northern Afghanistan. And you have to know that the Taliban are
Pashtuns, and that young Pashtuns are looking for revenge for
atrocities committed in the 1990s, and that Nato troops are completely
irrelevant.
So even if the Taliban leaders agreed to some settlement, it would not
satisfy their sons and daughters, who are not going to be deterred in
their search for revenge. That's the way the world works.
The SIGAR report says, in many many words, that the Afghan
stabilization operation has been a disaster. Here's a summary of the
report's conclusions:
<QUOTE>"Between 2001 and 2017, U.S. government efforts to
stabilize insecure and contested areas in Afghanistan mostly
failed.
The U.S. government overestimated its ability to build and reform
government institutions in Afghanistan as part of the
stabilization strategy. During the 2009 Afghanistan strategy
reviews, President Obama and his civilian and military advisors
set in motion a series of events that fostered unrealistic
expectations of what could be achieved. They also ensured the
U.S. government’s stabilization strategy would not succeed, first
with the rapid surge and then the rapid transition. Under immense
pressure to quickly stabilize insecure districts, U.S. government
agencies spent far too much money, far too quickly, in a country
woefully unprepared to absorb it. Money spent was often the metric
of success. As a result, programming sometimes exacerbated
conflicts, enabled corruption, and bolstered support for
insurgents.
Every organization and agency that worked on stabilization in
Afghanistan suffered from personnel and programming deficits borne
from rapid scaling, short tours, and the pressure to make quick
progress. Even harder than finding available civilians and
soldiers was finding qualified and experienced candidates who were
trained and equipped to understand and navigate local political
economies.
Stabilization is inherently political, but given DOD’s size and
resources the military consistently determined priorities and
chose to focus on the most insecure districts first. These areas
were often perpetually insecure and had to be cleared of
insurgents again and again. Civilian agencies, particularly USAID,
were compelled to establish stabilization programs in fiercely
contested areas that were not ready for them.
Because the coalition focused on the most insecure areas and
rarely provided an enduring sense of security after clearing them,
Afghans had little faith their districts would remain in
government hands when the coalition eventually withdrew and were
often too afraid to serve in local government. Implementing
partners struggled to execute projects amid the violence, the
coalition had very limited access to and understanding of
prioritized communities, and U.S. government agencies were unable
to adequately monitor and evaluate the projects that were
implemented.
As a result, powerbrokers and predatory government officials with
access to coalition projects became kings with patronage to sell,
fueling conflicts between and among communities. In turn, Afghans
who were marginalized in this competition for access and resources
found natural allies in the Taliban, who used that support to
divide and conquer communities the coalition was keen to win
over."<END QUOTE>
To anyone who understands the generational analyses of Afghanistan
that I've been writing for ten years, none of the SIGAR conclusions
are a surprise at all. Stabilization didn't work because
stabilization is impossible in Afghanistan for the generational
reasons given, and that will continue into the future.
Nonetheless, US military forces said on Friday that the US military
fight in Afghanistan will be intensified.
As I've written in the past, there may be a dynamic going on, where
the American military makes statements that the public wants to hear,
even though they don't contain a word of truth. Donald Trump and the
military understand that this war cannot be won, but there's a larger
purpose. As war with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump
wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue
to maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including
two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These
bases will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these
circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether
the Taliban are defeated or not. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)
and AP
Related Articles
****
**** I love this picture -- from Saturday's G-7 meeting
****
![[Image: g180609c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180609c.jpg)
Picture from Saturday's G-7 meeting in Canada
BBC
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban,
Afghan National Army, Spring Fighting Season,
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, SIGAR
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Taliban launches multiple terror attacks on Afghan security forces
- The Taliban issues a farcical 3-day ceasefire statement
- Special Inspector General issues scathing report on US military in Afghanistan
- I love this picture -- from Saturday's G-7 meeting
****
**** Taliban launches multiple terror attacks on Afghan security forces
****
American soldiers in Camp Bost in Helmand Province, Afghanistan (Getty)
Afghan terrorists launched multiple coordinated attacks on Afghan
security forces on Friday and Saturday. Almost 50 security force
members were killed in Kunduz, Herat and Sar-e-Pul provinces.
According to officials, the Afghan National Army launched operations
in eight other provinces against insurgents, killing over 80 Taliban
and ISIS militants on Friday and Saturday.
The Taliban announced the beginning of its Spring Fighting Season in
mid-May, and clashes and attacks have increased noticeably across the
country, resulting in a rise in casualties among security and defense
force members. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Khaama (Afghanistan)
****
**** The Taliban issues a farcical 3-day ceasefire statement
****
On Saturday, the Taliban issued a farcical statement declaring a 3-day
ceasefire. As usual, Afghan and American political and military
officials are leaping to the bait, hoping that this is a sign that the
Taliban are ready for a "negotiated settlement." Here are some
excerpts:
<QUOTE>"Directives of the Leader for the Mujahideen during
Eid days
In the name of Allah, most Compassionate, most Merciful
In order that our countrymen participate in Eid prayers and other
festivities with complete confidence during the joyous days of
Eid, the Mujahideen of Islamic Emirate must strictly comply with
the following directives:
1 – All Mujahideen are directed to cease all offensive operations
against the domestic opposition forces during the first, second
and third day of Eid however if Mujahideen are attacked, they must
defend with their utmost capability.
2 – Foreign occupiers are excluded from the above order. Continue
your operations against them and target them wherever and whenever
you find an opportunity. ...
5 – The Mujahideen should not participate in civilian
congregations where there could be a danger of airstrikes so that
our inhumane enemy will not be able to use it as an excuse for
their blind bombardments and civilian tragedies."<END QUOTE>
The phrase "the domestic opposition forces" refers to the Afghan
security forces.
So, the Taliban issues this statement declaring a 3-day ceasefire
against "the domestic opposition forces" at the same time that it's
conducting massive coordinated terror attacks against those same
forces.
Furthermore, the "foreign occupiers," referring to the US-led
coalition forces, are not included in the ceasefire.
The Taliban have repeatedly said that their objective is to force the
US-led coalition forces to leave, after which they would easily defeat
"the domestic opposition forces" in many parts of the country.
Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Long War Journal
****
**** Special Inspector General issues scathing report on US military in Afghanistan
****
The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)
has issued a "lessons learned" report for 2018 on the US experience in
trying to implement a stabilization strategy in Afghanistan. The
report says that pretty much everything the US forces did in
Afghanistan was a failure, and that's a conclusion I agree with.
Before providing excerpts, let me remind long-time readers that I've
been writing for almost ten years that a simple Generational Dynamics
analysis shows that any sort of victory or stabilization against the
Taliban is literally impossible.
As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis
war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which
mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later
formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras
and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later,
Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young
generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their
parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern
Alliance, and they're looking for revenge.
But you don't have to know anything about generational history to
understand what's going on. You just have to understand that there
was an extremely bloody, violent civil war in 1991-96, pitting the
Pashtuns versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in
northern Afghanistan. And you have to know that the Taliban are
Pashtuns, and that young Pashtuns are looking for revenge for
atrocities committed in the 1990s, and that Nato troops are completely
irrelevant.
So even if the Taliban leaders agreed to some settlement, it would not
satisfy their sons and daughters, who are not going to be deterred in
their search for revenge. That's the way the world works.
The SIGAR report says, in many many words, that the Afghan
stabilization operation has been a disaster. Here's a summary of the
report's conclusions:
<QUOTE>"Between 2001 and 2017, U.S. government efforts to
stabilize insecure and contested areas in Afghanistan mostly
failed.
The U.S. government overestimated its ability to build and reform
government institutions in Afghanistan as part of the
stabilization strategy. During the 2009 Afghanistan strategy
reviews, President Obama and his civilian and military advisors
set in motion a series of events that fostered unrealistic
expectations of what could be achieved. They also ensured the
U.S. government’s stabilization strategy would not succeed, first
with the rapid surge and then the rapid transition. Under immense
pressure to quickly stabilize insecure districts, U.S. government
agencies spent far too much money, far too quickly, in a country
woefully unprepared to absorb it. Money spent was often the metric
of success. As a result, programming sometimes exacerbated
conflicts, enabled corruption, and bolstered support for
insurgents.
Every organization and agency that worked on stabilization in
Afghanistan suffered from personnel and programming deficits borne
from rapid scaling, short tours, and the pressure to make quick
progress. Even harder than finding available civilians and
soldiers was finding qualified and experienced candidates who were
trained and equipped to understand and navigate local political
economies.
Stabilization is inherently political, but given DOD’s size and
resources the military consistently determined priorities and
chose to focus on the most insecure districts first. These areas
were often perpetually insecure and had to be cleared of
insurgents again and again. Civilian agencies, particularly USAID,
were compelled to establish stabilization programs in fiercely
contested areas that were not ready for them.
Because the coalition focused on the most insecure areas and
rarely provided an enduring sense of security after clearing them,
Afghans had little faith their districts would remain in
government hands when the coalition eventually withdrew and were
often too afraid to serve in local government. Implementing
partners struggled to execute projects amid the violence, the
coalition had very limited access to and understanding of
prioritized communities, and U.S. government agencies were unable
to adequately monitor and evaluate the projects that were
implemented.
As a result, powerbrokers and predatory government officials with
access to coalition projects became kings with patronage to sell,
fueling conflicts between and among communities. In turn, Afghans
who were marginalized in this competition for access and resources
found natural allies in the Taliban, who used that support to
divide and conquer communities the coalition was keen to win
over."<END QUOTE>
To anyone who understands the generational analyses of Afghanistan
that I've been writing for ten years, none of the SIGAR conclusions
are a surprise at all. Stabilization didn't work because
stabilization is impossible in Afghanistan for the generational
reasons given, and that will continue into the future.
Nonetheless, US military forces said on Friday that the US military
fight in Afghanistan will be intensified.
As I've written in the past, there may be a dynamic going on, where
the American military makes statements that the public wants to hear,
even though they don't contain a word of truth. Donald Trump and the
military understand that this war cannot be won, but there's a larger
purpose. As war with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump
wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue
to maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including
two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These
bases will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these
circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether
the Taliban are defeated or not. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)
and AP
Related Articles
- Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan (16-May-2018)
- Trump promises victory in Afghanistan by redefining 'victory' (23-Aug-2017)
- Kabul bombing brings back memories of bloody 1990s Afghan civil war (03-Jun-2017)
- Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
****
**** I love this picture -- from Saturday's G-7 meeting
****
Picture from Saturday's G-7 meeting in Canada
BBC
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban,
Afghan National Army, Spring Fighting Season,
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, SIGAR
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
