06-18-2018, 09:58 PM
*** 19-Jun-18 World View -- Russia-Israel alliance grows, while Russia-Iran alliance frays in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Israeli airstrike on Syria-Iraq border kills dozens of Shia militia fighters
****
![[Image: g180618b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180618b.jpg)
Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin at a joint press conference in Sochi (AFP)
An airstrike on Iraqi Shia militias on Sunday evening killed dozens of
fighters supporting the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
The airstrike targeted a position in Syria's Deir az-Zour province,
near the border with Iraq.
Syrian media blamed the US-led coalition for the airstrike. According
to the report from Syrian media SANA, the fighters were from the
regime army, and they were fighting ISIS:
<QUOTE>"A military source said in a statement to SANA that
the US-led coalition on Sunday targeted one of our military
positions in the town of Al-Hiri, southeast of al-Boukamal city,
leaving a number of martyrs and wounding other people. ...
The coalition has been targeting the military positions in a
desperate attempt to raise the collapsed morale of the terrorist
organizations due to the achievements of the Syrian army.
The field reports confirm that Washington provides Daesh [ISIS]
organization with various kinds of support to prevent its collapse
and invest it to keep its forces illegally in the Syrian territory
and steal the economic resources in the eastern region through its
mercenaries of terrorist groups."<END QUOTE>
By Monday evening, numerous reports have come up describing errors in
the SANA report, essentially making it "fake news."
Most important, the US-led coalition had conducted no airstrikes in
the region on Sunday evening, and the US military repeatedly denied
that the US coalition had anything to do with the airstrike.
Second, there have been reports that the most likely force behind the
airstrikes was the Israeli military. Israel is refusing comment, but
unnamed Israeli military sources are confirming this off the record.
Israel rarely comments on its airstrikes in Syria, but prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday that Israel
is "already taking action" against Iran in Syria:
<QUOTE>"Over the weekend I spoke with Russian President
Vladimir Putin and with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. We
discussed regional issues and focused -- of course -- on Syria.
I reiterated our guiding principles regarding Syria. First of all,
Iran needs to withdraw from all of Syria. Second, we will take
action -- and are already taking action -- against efforts to
establish a military presence by Iran and its proxies in Syria
both close to the border and deep inside Syria. We will act
against these efforts anywhere in Syria."<END QUOTE>
This statement by Netanyahu actually represents a bit of an expansion
of previously announced policy. Previous policy indicated that
Israeli airstrikes would be focused on southern Syria, along the
border with the Israeli-governed Golan Heights. In Sunday's
statement, Netanyahu made it clear that Israel will strike pro-Iranian
targets anywhere in Syria. That statement clears up some confusion
about whether Israel could have been responsible for the Sunday
evening airstrike, whose target had been much deeper into Syria than
previous Israeli airstrikes.
A final problem with the Sana story is that it wasn't clear about what
forces the Israeli airstrikes were targeting. It has emerged that
40-50 militia fighters were killed, a combination of Syrian army
forces, Iraqi Hezbollah forces, and Iran-backed members of the Popular
Mobilization Forces (PMU) umbrella organization, which takes its
orders from Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani. SANA (Damascus) and CNN and Debka (Israel) and Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs
****
**** Russia-Israel alliance grows, while Russia-Iran alliance frays in Syria
****
Netanyahu's statement, quoted above, confirms something that's been
increasingly clear for at least two years -- that Israel's alliance
with Russia is growing, and that Russia is doing nothing to stop
Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria.
That Russia's relationship with Israel is getting closer couldn't have
been demonstrated more clearly than when Russia openly accepted
Jerusalem as Israeli's capital and on June 14 attended a celebration
of Russia's Independence Day at a reception being held in Jerusalem.
Russia, Iran and Turkey formed an alliance in 2015 to support al-Assad
in Syria's civil war, with each one taking on a different
"assignment." But it's always been fairly certain that once these
"assignments" were completed, then there would be no long left for
them to fight except each other, since they all had different
objectives.
Russia's objective was to establish Russian military bases in
Syria, and it has accomplished that with naval and air bases.
Iran's objective was to establish its own bases in Syria, where
they could be used to launch attacks on Israel. Russia does not
want Iran to have bases in Syria, and more important, Russia
does not want a full-scale war between Iran and Israel.
Iran does have thousands of trainers, advisors, technicians and other
support specialists to make the Syrian Army and their Iranian allies.
According to one estimate, Iran supervises over 50,000 mercenary
forces in Syria, mainly Shias from Afghanistan and Lebanon. As we
reported in 2015,
al-Assad's army
was near collapse, and was saved only through the intervention of
Russian bombers and Iranian mercenaries.
As the role of the Iranian mercenaries winds down, Russia is demanding
that "all foreign troops" (except themselves) leave Syria. Of course
this is nominally directed at the Americans and Turks, but it's also
directed at the Iranians. One thing most everyone can agree on,
including most European and Middle Eastern nations, is that Iran
should get out of Syria. Until that happens, the chances of a war
between Israel and Iran in Syria will continue to grow. Al-Monitor and Strategy Page (12-June) and Spectator (UK) and Media Line
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Deir az-Zour, Iraq, Golan Heights,
Popular Mobilization Forces, PMU, Qassem Soleimani,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Israeli airstrike on Syria-Iraq border kills dozens of Shia militia fighters
- Russia-Israel alliance grows, while Russia-Iran alliance frays in Syria
****
**** Israeli airstrike on Syria-Iraq border kills dozens of Shia militia fighters
****
Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin at a joint press conference in Sochi (AFP)
An airstrike on Iraqi Shia militias on Sunday evening killed dozens of
fighters supporting the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.
The airstrike targeted a position in Syria's Deir az-Zour province,
near the border with Iraq.
Syrian media blamed the US-led coalition for the airstrike. According
to the report from Syrian media SANA, the fighters were from the
regime army, and they were fighting ISIS:
<QUOTE>"A military source said in a statement to SANA that
the US-led coalition on Sunday targeted one of our military
positions in the town of Al-Hiri, southeast of al-Boukamal city,
leaving a number of martyrs and wounding other people. ...
The coalition has been targeting the military positions in a
desperate attempt to raise the collapsed morale of the terrorist
organizations due to the achievements of the Syrian army.
The field reports confirm that Washington provides Daesh [ISIS]
organization with various kinds of support to prevent its collapse
and invest it to keep its forces illegally in the Syrian territory
and steal the economic resources in the eastern region through its
mercenaries of terrorist groups."<END QUOTE>
By Monday evening, numerous reports have come up describing errors in
the SANA report, essentially making it "fake news."
Most important, the US-led coalition had conducted no airstrikes in
the region on Sunday evening, and the US military repeatedly denied
that the US coalition had anything to do with the airstrike.
Second, there have been reports that the most likely force behind the
airstrikes was the Israeli military. Israel is refusing comment, but
unnamed Israeli military sources are confirming this off the record.
Israel rarely comments on its airstrikes in Syria, but prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday that Israel
is "already taking action" against Iran in Syria:
<QUOTE>"Over the weekend I spoke with Russian President
Vladimir Putin and with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. We
discussed regional issues and focused -- of course -- on Syria.
I reiterated our guiding principles regarding Syria. First of all,
Iran needs to withdraw from all of Syria. Second, we will take
action -- and are already taking action -- against efforts to
establish a military presence by Iran and its proxies in Syria
both close to the border and deep inside Syria. We will act
against these efforts anywhere in Syria."<END QUOTE>
This statement by Netanyahu actually represents a bit of an expansion
of previously announced policy. Previous policy indicated that
Israeli airstrikes would be focused on southern Syria, along the
border with the Israeli-governed Golan Heights. In Sunday's
statement, Netanyahu made it clear that Israel will strike pro-Iranian
targets anywhere in Syria. That statement clears up some confusion
about whether Israel could have been responsible for the Sunday
evening airstrike, whose target had been much deeper into Syria than
previous Israeli airstrikes.
A final problem with the Sana story is that it wasn't clear about what
forces the Israeli airstrikes were targeting. It has emerged that
40-50 militia fighters were killed, a combination of Syrian army
forces, Iraqi Hezbollah forces, and Iran-backed members of the Popular
Mobilization Forces (PMU) umbrella organization, which takes its
orders from Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani. SANA (Damascus) and CNN and Debka (Israel) and Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs
****
**** Russia-Israel alliance grows, while Russia-Iran alliance frays in Syria
****
Netanyahu's statement, quoted above, confirms something that's been
increasingly clear for at least two years -- that Israel's alliance
with Russia is growing, and that Russia is doing nothing to stop
Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria.
That Russia's relationship with Israel is getting closer couldn't have
been demonstrated more clearly than when Russia openly accepted
Jerusalem as Israeli's capital and on June 14 attended a celebration
of Russia's Independence Day at a reception being held in Jerusalem.
Russia, Iran and Turkey formed an alliance in 2015 to support al-Assad
in Syria's civil war, with each one taking on a different
"assignment." But it's always been fairly certain that once these
"assignments" were completed, then there would be no long left for
them to fight except each other, since they all had different
objectives.
Russia's objective was to establish Russian military bases in
Syria, and it has accomplished that with naval and air bases.
Iran's objective was to establish its own bases in Syria, where
they could be used to launch attacks on Israel. Russia does not
want Iran to have bases in Syria, and more important, Russia
does not want a full-scale war between Iran and Israel.
Iran does have thousands of trainers, advisors, technicians and other
support specialists to make the Syrian Army and their Iranian allies.
According to one estimate, Iran supervises over 50,000 mercenary
forces in Syria, mainly Shias from Afghanistan and Lebanon. As we
reported in 2015,
al-Assad's army
was near collapse, and was saved only through the intervention of
Russian bombers and Iranian mercenaries.
As the role of the Iranian mercenaries winds down, Russia is demanding
that "all foreign troops" (except themselves) leave Syria. Of course
this is nominally directed at the Americans and Turks, but it's also
directed at the Iranians. One thing most everyone can agree on,
including most European and Middle Eastern nations, is that Iran
should get out of Syria. Until that happens, the chances of a war
between Israel and Iran in Syria will continue to grow. Al-Monitor and Strategy Page (12-June) and Spectator (UK) and Media Line
Related Articles
- Israel makes deal with Russia as Syria's al-Assad makes anti-US rant (02-Jun-2018)
- Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah heading for a military confrontation in Syria (26-Dec-2017)
- Israel bombs targets in Syria with Russia's tacit cooperation (06-Dec-2015)
- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse (08-Apr-2015)
- Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
- Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus (28-Apr-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Deir az-Zour, Iraq, Golan Heights,
Popular Mobilization Forces, PMU, Qassem Soleimani,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
