07-02-2018, 10:40 PM
*** 3-Jul-18 World View -- Mexico elects far left president amid skyrocketing murders, crime and corruption
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Mexico elects far left president amid skyrocketing murders, crime and corruption
****
![[Image: g180702b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180702b.jpg)
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) In Mexico City on Sunday night (AFP)
Far left politician Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), 64 years old,
won a landslide victory in Mexico's presidential election on Sunday,
with about 53% of the vote -- more than double the total of his
nearest rival.
AMLO's victory is being seen as the latest of large populist
victories, comparable to the Brexit referendum, Donald Trump's
victory, and the right-wing victory in Italy. As the world goes
deeper into a generational Crisis era, and the survivors of World War
II continue to disappear, the old orders and institutions are
disappearing with them, and younger generations are creating a new
world order that ignores the lessons of World War II.
AMLO told his supporters:
<QUOTE>"I'm very aware of my historical responsibility. I
don't want to go into history as a bad president. Now we are going
to transform Mexico."<END QUOTE>
Well that claim would have to be placed in the category of "major
fantasy." Mexico is infested with murders, crime and corruption,
and no transformation is possible in the near future.
More than 110 politicians have been murdered since September. Last
year, a record 25,000 people were murdered, and 13,000 have been
killed so far this year. The 112th political candidate to be killed
was Fernando Puron, a congressional candidate in the border city of
Piedras Negras, who was taking a selfie with a supporter when a gunman
shot him in the head from behind.
Corruption is endemic. Outgoing President Enrique Peña Nieto’s
government and party were mired in a seemingly bottomless series of
scandals. AMLO promises to end corruption quickly.
The wave of murders, kidnappings and gang-related violence began
during the administration of former president Felipe Calderón
(2006-2012), who launched the government’s war against drug cartels in
2006. Instead of defeating the drug cartels, however, organized
crime, predominantly drug trafficking, exploded into broader criminal
activities including theft, extortion, murder and state-level
corruption. Despite billions spent and massive cash injections from
the U.S., Mexico has become only more dangerous.
AMLO wants massive spending on multi-billion dollar national
infrastructure projects, but has not specified where the money will
come from in Mexico's already weak economy. When asked he says that
he can pay simply by reducing corruption and waste. That's what every
politician says, but there's no chance that he will succeed.
Questions are being asked about how well AMLO and Donald Trump will
get along, but they spoke on the phone on Monday, and both say they're
in agreement on many things. AMLO had campaigned on Mexico leaving
NAFTA, but Mexico really needs NAFTA, and so that campaign promise
will be renegotiated with Trump. NBC News and AFP and Washington Examiner
****
**** Generational explanation for the violence in Mexico
****
Mexico's last generational crisis war was the Mexican Revolution of
1910-21. Mexico and Turkey are the only two major countries that have
gone more than 90 years without a generational crisis war.
The time since the last generational crisis war has a profound effect
on the society of a country. After the London subway bombings of
2005, we were able to show from published data that most Mideast
suicide bombers overwhelming came from Morocco and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia's last crisis war was the Ibn Saud conquest, ending in
1925, and Morocco's was the Rif War, ending in 1927. There appears to
be a correlation between the time since the last crisis war and
likelihood of suicide bombings and other suicide terrorist acts.
This phenomenon is explained theoretically in yesterday's article
"2-Jul-18 World View -- Generational explanation of today's vitriolic divisiveness in America"
.
As described in the article, a generational crisis war, whether it's
World War II or the Mexican Revolution or other, causes a core body of
"lessons learned," a set of beliefs that are deeply held by all the
survivors of the war. After the war, survivors in different political
parties may differ on many policies, but there are deeply held core
beliefs that allow them to cooperate on major policies. For example,
in America in the 1980s, the Republicans and the Democrats cooperated
with each other to change the Social Security system to make it a
sounder system. After that, they cooperated again to specify new
rules to control the budget deficit. That kind of cooperation became
impossible in the 2000s.
Once the survivors of the crisis war die off, then the younger
generations take power, but have no common deeply held core beliefs.
Previously held core beliefs shatter into fragments. Each group in
the population selects from those fragments, and uses them to develop
its own set of core beliefs, and makes commitments to those beliefs.
When those core beliefs conflict with reality and cause cognitive
dissonance -- with a disconfirmation event as described yesterday in
Festinger's theory -- each group doubles down on its unrealistic
beliefs, and in many cases this means becoming violent.
This theory is still under development, but it does provide a solid
theoretical explanation of the increasing violence in Mexico, and why
it will continue to grow until the next crisis war, probably a
re-fighting of the Mexican Revolution. A generational crisis war
unifies a country into a common set of core beliefs. As the decades
pass after the crisis war, this body of core beliefs shatters into
fragments adopted by different groups, resulting in conflicts that can
include violence. The next crisis war unifies the country again.
****
**** More on the generational explanation of vitriolic divisiveness in America
****
In yesterday's article,
I
described a "regeneracy event" as one that regenerates civic unity in
the population for the first time since the end of the previous crisis
war. In the American Civil War, it was the Battle of Bull Run. In
World War II, it was Pearl Harbor and then the Bataan Death March.
When these events occur, people with different political beliefs unite
behind the leader to fight to preserve the country and its way of
life.
During the days of the Barack Obama administration, I would write that
if a regeneracy event occurred, then all the people would drop their
political leanings, and become united behind Obama. This was greeted
with horror by some commenters, where some people said that he and his
friends would never unite behind Obama.
Now the shoe is on the other foot, and I'm hearing from commenters who
say that they would never become united behind Trump.
Neither of these claims is realistic. If a nuclear missile landed on
California, anyone who refused to defend the country would be branded
as a traitor, and would be treated as such.
A regeneracy event is a disconfirmation event in the sense of Leon
Festinger's theory of cognitive dissonance, as described yesterday.
It forces everyone to reevaluate all their deeply held beliefs, and
either reject them or double down on them. A few people will double
down and become perceived as traitors, but even they will be convinced
as the weeks pass. In time, almost everyone will support the
president, whether it's Obama or Trump.
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, AMLO,
Fernando Puron, Piedras Negras,
Enrique Peña Nieto, Felipe Calderón, Mexican Revolution
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Mexico elects far left president amid skyrocketing murders, crime and corruption
- Generational explanation for the violence in Mexico
- More on the generational explanation of vitriolic divisiveness in America
****
**** Mexico elects far left president amid skyrocketing murders, crime and corruption
****
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) In Mexico City on Sunday night (AFP)
Far left politician Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), 64 years old,
won a landslide victory in Mexico's presidential election on Sunday,
with about 53% of the vote -- more than double the total of his
nearest rival.
AMLO's victory is being seen as the latest of large populist
victories, comparable to the Brexit referendum, Donald Trump's
victory, and the right-wing victory in Italy. As the world goes
deeper into a generational Crisis era, and the survivors of World War
II continue to disappear, the old orders and institutions are
disappearing with them, and younger generations are creating a new
world order that ignores the lessons of World War II.
AMLO told his supporters:
<QUOTE>"I'm very aware of my historical responsibility. I
don't want to go into history as a bad president. Now we are going
to transform Mexico."<END QUOTE>
Well that claim would have to be placed in the category of "major
fantasy." Mexico is infested with murders, crime and corruption,
and no transformation is possible in the near future.
More than 110 politicians have been murdered since September. Last
year, a record 25,000 people were murdered, and 13,000 have been
killed so far this year. The 112th political candidate to be killed
was Fernando Puron, a congressional candidate in the border city of
Piedras Negras, who was taking a selfie with a supporter when a gunman
shot him in the head from behind.
Corruption is endemic. Outgoing President Enrique Peña Nieto’s
government and party were mired in a seemingly bottomless series of
scandals. AMLO promises to end corruption quickly.
The wave of murders, kidnappings and gang-related violence began
during the administration of former president Felipe Calderón
(2006-2012), who launched the government’s war against drug cartels in
2006. Instead of defeating the drug cartels, however, organized
crime, predominantly drug trafficking, exploded into broader criminal
activities including theft, extortion, murder and state-level
corruption. Despite billions spent and massive cash injections from
the U.S., Mexico has become only more dangerous.
AMLO wants massive spending on multi-billion dollar national
infrastructure projects, but has not specified where the money will
come from in Mexico's already weak economy. When asked he says that
he can pay simply by reducing corruption and waste. That's what every
politician says, but there's no chance that he will succeed.
Questions are being asked about how well AMLO and Donald Trump will
get along, but they spoke on the phone on Monday, and both say they're
in agreement on many things. AMLO had campaigned on Mexico leaving
NAFTA, but Mexico really needs NAFTA, and so that campaign promise
will be renegotiated with Trump. NBC News and AFP and Washington Examiner
****
**** Generational explanation for the violence in Mexico
****
Mexico's last generational crisis war was the Mexican Revolution of
1910-21. Mexico and Turkey are the only two major countries that have
gone more than 90 years without a generational crisis war.
The time since the last generational crisis war has a profound effect
on the society of a country. After the London subway bombings of
2005, we were able to show from published data that most Mideast
suicide bombers overwhelming came from Morocco and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia's last crisis war was the Ibn Saud conquest, ending in
1925, and Morocco's was the Rif War, ending in 1927. There appears to
be a correlation between the time since the last crisis war and
likelihood of suicide bombings and other suicide terrorist acts.
This phenomenon is explained theoretically in yesterday's article
"2-Jul-18 World View -- Generational explanation of today's vitriolic divisiveness in America"
.
As described in the article, a generational crisis war, whether it's
World War II or the Mexican Revolution or other, causes a core body of
"lessons learned," a set of beliefs that are deeply held by all the
survivors of the war. After the war, survivors in different political
parties may differ on many policies, but there are deeply held core
beliefs that allow them to cooperate on major policies. For example,
in America in the 1980s, the Republicans and the Democrats cooperated
with each other to change the Social Security system to make it a
sounder system. After that, they cooperated again to specify new
rules to control the budget deficit. That kind of cooperation became
impossible in the 2000s.
Once the survivors of the crisis war die off, then the younger
generations take power, but have no common deeply held core beliefs.
Previously held core beliefs shatter into fragments. Each group in
the population selects from those fragments, and uses them to develop
its own set of core beliefs, and makes commitments to those beliefs.
When those core beliefs conflict with reality and cause cognitive
dissonance -- with a disconfirmation event as described yesterday in
Festinger's theory -- each group doubles down on its unrealistic
beliefs, and in many cases this means becoming violent.
This theory is still under development, but it does provide a solid
theoretical explanation of the increasing violence in Mexico, and why
it will continue to grow until the next crisis war, probably a
re-fighting of the Mexican Revolution. A generational crisis war
unifies a country into a common set of core beliefs. As the decades
pass after the crisis war, this body of core beliefs shatters into
fragments adopted by different groups, resulting in conflicts that can
include violence. The next crisis war unifies the country again.
****
**** More on the generational explanation of vitriolic divisiveness in America
****
In yesterday's article,
I
described a "regeneracy event" as one that regenerates civic unity in
the population for the first time since the end of the previous crisis
war. In the American Civil War, it was the Battle of Bull Run. In
World War II, it was Pearl Harbor and then the Bataan Death March.
When these events occur, people with different political beliefs unite
behind the leader to fight to preserve the country and its way of
life.
During the days of the Barack Obama administration, I would write that
if a regeneracy event occurred, then all the people would drop their
political leanings, and become united behind Obama. This was greeted
with horror by some commenters, where some people said that he and his
friends would never unite behind Obama.
Now the shoe is on the other foot, and I'm hearing from commenters who
say that they would never become united behind Trump.
Neither of these claims is realistic. If a nuclear missile landed on
California, anyone who refused to defend the country would be branded
as a traitor, and would be treated as such.
A regeneracy event is a disconfirmation event in the sense of Leon
Festinger's theory of cognitive dissonance, as described yesterday.
It forces everyone to reevaluate all their deeply held beliefs, and
either reject them or double down on them. A few people will double
down and become perceived as traitors, but even they will be convinced
as the weeks pass. In time, almost everyone will support the
president, whether it's Obama or Trump.
Related Articles:
- Generational explanation of today's vitriolic divisiveness in America (02-Jul-2018)
- Violence increases throughout Mexico as illegals pour across U.S. border (25-Aug-2005)
- Teen 'emo subculture' creating violent fault line in Mexico City (25-May-2008)
- Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico (08-Oct-2011)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, AMLO,
Fernando Puron, Piedras Negras,
Enrique Peña Nieto, Felipe Calderón, Mexican Revolution
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
