07-07-2018, 10:36 PM
*** 8-Jul-18 World View -- North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks
****
![[Image: g180707b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180707b.jpg)
Mike Pompeo in Pyongyang after his meetings on Saturday (AFP)
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited North Korean on Friday and
Saturday, where he was snubbed by not having a meeting with the child
dictator Kim Jong-un.
Pompeo characterized the meeting as "successful," but the North Korean
news agency KCNA issued a 1,300 word vitriolic anti-US rant,
criticizing the "gangster-like demand for denuclearization," and then
contradicting itself by threatening to end its alleged "unshakable
will for denuclearization." Here are some excerpts:
<QUOTE>"It was, however, so regretful to mention what the
U.S. side had shown in its attitude and stand at the first
DPRK-U.S. high-level talks held on 6 and 7 July.
The DPRK [North Korea] side, during the talks, put forward the
constructive proposals to seek a balanced implementation of all
the provisions of the Joint Statement out of its firm willingness
to remain faithful to the implementation of the spirit and agreed
points of the DPRK-U.S. summit meeting and talks. ...
But, the U.S. side came up only with its unilateral and
gangster-like demand for denuclearization just calling for CVID,
declaration and verification, all of which run counter to the
spirit of the Singapore summit meeting and talks. ...
The issues the U.S. side insisted on at the talks are all roots of
troubles, which the previous administrations also had insisted on
to disrupt the dialogue processes, stoke the distrust and increase
the danger of war. ...
The first DPRK-U.S. high-level talks this time brought us in a
dangerous situation where we may be shaken in our unshakable will
for denuclearization, rather than consolidating trust between the
DPRK and the U.S.
In the last few months, we displayed maximum patience and watched
the U.S. while initiating good-will steps as many as we can.
But, it seems that the U.S. misunderstood our goodwill and
patience.
The U.S. is fatally mistaken if it went to the extent of regarding
that the DPRK would be compelled to accept, out of its patience,
the demands reflecting its gangster-like mindset. ...
But, if the U.S., being captivated in a fidget, tries to force
upon us the old ways claimed by the previous administrations, this
will get us nowhere. ...
We still cherish our good faith in President Trump.<END QUOTE>
The acronym CVID refers to "complete, verifiable, irreversible
denuclearization," which has been the stated objective of the Trump
administration from the beginning. KCNA (North Korea) and AP
****
**** The North Korean demands: total American withdrawal from South Korea
****
As I wrote two days ago ( "6-Jul-18 World View -- Sec of State Pompeo visits North Korea amid reports that sanctions will be softened"
), the objective
of Pompeo's trip was to press Kim to provide a complete list of all
nuclear and ballistic missile production sites, and a timetable for
shutting them down. Obviously the North Koreans balked at that
request.
As I've said in the past, in my opinion the North Koreans have had one
and only one objective for these meetings: Use diplomacy to force the
Trump administration to lift the sanctions, while continuing nuclear
weapons and missile development.
Saturday's KCNA statement is exactly in line with that objective. The
North Koreans made the "reasonable" demand that the Korea war be
officially ended (as opposed to the current status, officially still
at war after an armistice was signed in 1953):
<QUOTE>"The U.S. side never mentioned the issue of
establishing a peace regime on the Korean peninsula which is
essential for defusing tension and preventing a war. It took the
position that it would even backtrack on the issue it had agreed
on to end the status of war under certain conditions and excuses.
As for the issue of announcing the declaration of the end of war
at an early date, it is the first process of defusing tension and
establishing a lasting peace regime on the Korean peninsula, and
at the same time, it constitutes a first factor in creating trust
between the DPRK and the U.S. This issue was also stipulated in
Panmunjom Declaration as a historical task to terminate the war
status on the Korean peninsula which continues for nearly 70
years. President Trump, too, was more enthusiastic about this
issue at the DPRK-U.S. summit talks. ...
The U.S. side, during the talks, made a great publicity about
suspension of one or two joint military exercises. But suspension
of one action called exercises is a highly reversible step which
can be resumed anytime at any moment as all of its military force
remains intact in its previously-held positions without scraping
even a rifle. This is incomparable with the irreversible step
taken by the DPRK to explode and dismantle the nuclear test
ground."<END QUOTE>
This is all a demand that the US withdraw all its forces from South
Korea before any denuclearization can take place. Related to this are
other demands, including removal of the THAAD defensive anti-missile
system from South Korea, and removal of American forces from Okinawa.
At one time in the past, a North Korean official was quoted as saying
that North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons after the US gives
up its nuclear weapons.
It's true, as the North Koreans claim, that the suspension of the
joint military exercises is reversible, but the claim about the
exploding and dismantling the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Mount
Mantap is also reversible, and may be completely fraudulent. The
North Koreans did not permit nuclear experts to witness the
explosions, and so the explosions may only have been a big show to
gain negotiating leverage. Furthermore, as we discussed at the time,
other parts of Mount Mantap can be
used as nuclear test sites, and there may be dozens of other locations
in North Korea. This is probably one of the reasons why Pompeo's
request for a list of test sites was denied on Saturday.
The purpose of the KCNA statement was to make a "reasonable" request,
in order to get the Trump administration to lift the sanctions, with
no significant concessions by the North. At the end of the day on
Saturday, the sanctions were still in full force.
****
**** The future of the denuclearization negotiations
****
There's no doubt that the denuclearization "negotiations" have
now taken a sharp turn.
Recall that Trump canceled the summit negotiations six weeks ago.
( "25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit"
)
One of the things that triggered Trump's cancelation was continued
criticism of and contempt for Trump in the North Korean media. Since
the cancelation, the NK media have been consistently "nice" to Trump
and the US.
So Saturday's criticism is extremely significant because it's the
first hostile comment in the NK media since the cancellation. In a
sense it represents NK's first real counter-response to Trump's
cancellation.
One thing that's notable about the KCNA statement on Saturday is that
it came a few hours after Pompeo had said the meetings had gone well,
so there was no need to make this statement right away. I've said in
the past that if Kim tried to really denuclearize, then he'd be shot
and killed by his own generals. The denuclearization negotiations
must have, at the very least, caused bitter disagreements in NK's
leadership, much like what's happening in London with Brexit or in
Berlin over the migration issue.
So the statement, when it wasn't even necessary, is a sign that the
faction opposing the negotiations has just gained the upper hand.
This is probably the real significance of the statement, and it means
an end to current track of negotiations.
The South Korean's must have seen this coming, because they've been
urging the US to soften its demands on NK. Going along with the South
Koreans would have meant making concessions without any
denuclearization steps by NK, so it had to be rejected, but now
we're facing the inevitable outcome.
There's one more thing that has to be remembered: From the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, this is a generational Crisis era,
where nationalism and xenophobia are at historical high points. So it
wouldn't take much to reach a tipping point for the North Koreans to
abandon the negotiations.
(People always point to the East-West Germany reunification talks in
1991 as examples that could be followed for Korean reunification. But
that example is completely irrelevant, since those talks occurred
during a generational Unraveling era, where nationalism and xenophobia
are at historical lowest points.)
The other thing that's going on, as I pointed out in my article two days ago
is that the Chinese
are furious about the tariffs that president Trump has been imposing.
The Chinese are liars and cheaters and criminals, but like the Nazis,
they consider themselves to be the Master Race who have the right to
lie and cheat and extort to get whatever they want, because they have
such total contempt for the West. The statement that NK issued
Saturday may have been encouraged by the Chinese, because of their
fury over the tariffs.
I also pointed out that there's an analogy with the sanctions imposed
on Japan on July 24, 1941, which infuriated the Japanese and motivated
the Pearl Harbor attack on December 7. I can't prove this, of course,
but with nationalism and xenophobia at their historic peaks, I have
the feeling that a similar dynamic is going on with China and North
Korea towards America and the West.
What choices are now available to the Trump administration? Here
are some possibilities:
Any of these choices have unpredictable results, because
the North Koreans have absolutely no intention of agreeing
to denuclearization, and that will have to become clear
at some point. Furthermore, with xenophobia and nationalism
at historic highs in both China and North Korea, any action
might produce a hostile reaction.
It's well to remember that we've only had these negotiations because
of a remarkable coincidence: Just as things were heating up to a boil
in January, it was time for, of all things, the Olympics games in
Seoul. This permitted the North to continue nuclear and ballistic
missile development, while putting on a charm offensive that lasted
several months. The charm offensive is now completely derailed.
For those who would like a thin reed of hope to grasp onto, let me
offer one. In my article "12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?"
, I speculated that
Kim Jong-un's sister, Kim Yo-jong, might have been so overtaken with
the vibrancy and high standard of living of South Korean society,
compared to the deadliness and near starvation as a constant in the
North, she might have taken it upon herself to convince her brother to
give up his nuclear program, for the good of the North Korean people.
In that article, I described how Soviet leader Boris Yeltsin had
decided to give up Communism after visiting the United States in
September, 1989.
I wrote that article in February, and since that time dozens
of top North Korean leaders have visited the South, and have
seen for themselves how the NK people have suffered enormously
under Communism. Trump himself has frequently pointed out
to the North Koreans that they could have a great future if
they give up their nuclear program.
So the thin reed of hope that I'm offering is that Kim Jong-un and his
generals take the same lesson that Yeltsin took, and decide that, for
the good of the North Korean people, it would be best to give up not
only the nuclear program, but Communism. Something like that would be
truly historic, but don't hold your breath waiting for it. Reuters and The Hill and Fox News
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Mike Pompeo,
Punggye-ri nuclear test site, Mount Mantap,
China, Xi Jinping, Japan, Pearl Harbor,
Kim Yo-jong, Russia, Boris Yeltsin
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks
- The North Korean demands: total American withdrawal from South Korea
- The future of the denuclearization negotiations
****
**** North Korea issues vitriolic anti-US rant, collapsing denuclearization talks
****
Mike Pompeo in Pyongyang after his meetings on Saturday (AFP)
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited North Korean on Friday and
Saturday, where he was snubbed by not having a meeting with the child
dictator Kim Jong-un.
Pompeo characterized the meeting as "successful," but the North Korean
news agency KCNA issued a 1,300 word vitriolic anti-US rant,
criticizing the "gangster-like demand for denuclearization," and then
contradicting itself by threatening to end its alleged "unshakable
will for denuclearization." Here are some excerpts:
<QUOTE>"It was, however, so regretful to mention what the
U.S. side had shown in its attitude and stand at the first
DPRK-U.S. high-level talks held on 6 and 7 July.
The DPRK [North Korea] side, during the talks, put forward the
constructive proposals to seek a balanced implementation of all
the provisions of the Joint Statement out of its firm willingness
to remain faithful to the implementation of the spirit and agreed
points of the DPRK-U.S. summit meeting and talks. ...
But, the U.S. side came up only with its unilateral and
gangster-like demand for denuclearization just calling for CVID,
declaration and verification, all of which run counter to the
spirit of the Singapore summit meeting and talks. ...
The issues the U.S. side insisted on at the talks are all roots of
troubles, which the previous administrations also had insisted on
to disrupt the dialogue processes, stoke the distrust and increase
the danger of war. ...
The first DPRK-U.S. high-level talks this time brought us in a
dangerous situation where we may be shaken in our unshakable will
for denuclearization, rather than consolidating trust between the
DPRK and the U.S.
In the last few months, we displayed maximum patience and watched
the U.S. while initiating good-will steps as many as we can.
But, it seems that the U.S. misunderstood our goodwill and
patience.
The U.S. is fatally mistaken if it went to the extent of regarding
that the DPRK would be compelled to accept, out of its patience,
the demands reflecting its gangster-like mindset. ...
But, if the U.S., being captivated in a fidget, tries to force
upon us the old ways claimed by the previous administrations, this
will get us nowhere. ...
We still cherish our good faith in President Trump.<END QUOTE>
The acronym CVID refers to "complete, verifiable, irreversible
denuclearization," which has been the stated objective of the Trump
administration from the beginning. KCNA (North Korea) and AP
****
**** The North Korean demands: total American withdrawal from South Korea
****
As I wrote two days ago ( "6-Jul-18 World View -- Sec of State Pompeo visits North Korea amid reports that sanctions will be softened"
), the objective
of Pompeo's trip was to press Kim to provide a complete list of all
nuclear and ballistic missile production sites, and a timetable for
shutting them down. Obviously the North Koreans balked at that
request.
As I've said in the past, in my opinion the North Koreans have had one
and only one objective for these meetings: Use diplomacy to force the
Trump administration to lift the sanctions, while continuing nuclear
weapons and missile development.
Saturday's KCNA statement is exactly in line with that objective. The
North Koreans made the "reasonable" demand that the Korea war be
officially ended (as opposed to the current status, officially still
at war after an armistice was signed in 1953):
<QUOTE>"The U.S. side never mentioned the issue of
establishing a peace regime on the Korean peninsula which is
essential for defusing tension and preventing a war. It took the
position that it would even backtrack on the issue it had agreed
on to end the status of war under certain conditions and excuses.
As for the issue of announcing the declaration of the end of war
at an early date, it is the first process of defusing tension and
establishing a lasting peace regime on the Korean peninsula, and
at the same time, it constitutes a first factor in creating trust
between the DPRK and the U.S. This issue was also stipulated in
Panmunjom Declaration as a historical task to terminate the war
status on the Korean peninsula which continues for nearly 70
years. President Trump, too, was more enthusiastic about this
issue at the DPRK-U.S. summit talks. ...
The U.S. side, during the talks, made a great publicity about
suspension of one or two joint military exercises. But suspension
of one action called exercises is a highly reversible step which
can be resumed anytime at any moment as all of its military force
remains intact in its previously-held positions without scraping
even a rifle. This is incomparable with the irreversible step
taken by the DPRK to explode and dismantle the nuclear test
ground."<END QUOTE>
This is all a demand that the US withdraw all its forces from South
Korea before any denuclearization can take place. Related to this are
other demands, including removal of the THAAD defensive anti-missile
system from South Korea, and removal of American forces from Okinawa.
At one time in the past, a North Korean official was quoted as saying
that North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons after the US gives
up its nuclear weapons.
It's true, as the North Koreans claim, that the suspension of the
joint military exercises is reversible, but the claim about the
exploding and dismantling the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Mount
Mantap is also reversible, and may be completely fraudulent. The
North Koreans did not permit nuclear experts to witness the
explosions, and so the explosions may only have been a big show to
gain negotiating leverage. Furthermore, as we discussed at the time,
other parts of Mount Mantap can be
used as nuclear test sites, and there may be dozens of other locations
in North Korea. This is probably one of the reasons why Pompeo's
request for a list of test sites was denied on Saturday.
The purpose of the KCNA statement was to make a "reasonable" request,
in order to get the Trump administration to lift the sanctions, with
no significant concessions by the North. At the end of the day on
Saturday, the sanctions were still in full force.
****
**** The future of the denuclearization negotiations
****
There's no doubt that the denuclearization "negotiations" have
now taken a sharp turn.
Recall that Trump canceled the summit negotiations six weeks ago.
( "25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit"
)
One of the things that triggered Trump's cancelation was continued
criticism of and contempt for Trump in the North Korean media. Since
the cancelation, the NK media have been consistently "nice" to Trump
and the US.
So Saturday's criticism is extremely significant because it's the
first hostile comment in the NK media since the cancellation. In a
sense it represents NK's first real counter-response to Trump's
cancellation.
One thing that's notable about the KCNA statement on Saturday is that
it came a few hours after Pompeo had said the meetings had gone well,
so there was no need to make this statement right away. I've said in
the past that if Kim tried to really denuclearize, then he'd be shot
and killed by his own generals. The denuclearization negotiations
must have, at the very least, caused bitter disagreements in NK's
leadership, much like what's happening in London with Brexit or in
Berlin over the migration issue.
So the statement, when it wasn't even necessary, is a sign that the
faction opposing the negotiations has just gained the upper hand.
This is probably the real significance of the statement, and it means
an end to current track of negotiations.
The South Korean's must have seen this coming, because they've been
urging the US to soften its demands on NK. Going along with the South
Koreans would have meant making concessions without any
denuclearization steps by NK, so it had to be rejected, but now
we're facing the inevitable outcome.
There's one more thing that has to be remembered: From the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, this is a generational Crisis era,
where nationalism and xenophobia are at historical high points. So it
wouldn't take much to reach a tipping point for the North Koreans to
abandon the negotiations.
(People always point to the East-West Germany reunification talks in
1991 as examples that could be followed for Korean reunification. But
that example is completely irrelevant, since those talks occurred
during a generational Unraveling era, where nationalism and xenophobia
are at historical lowest points.)
The other thing that's going on, as I pointed out in my article two days ago
is that the Chinese
are furious about the tariffs that president Trump has been imposing.
The Chinese are liars and cheaters and criminals, but like the Nazis,
they consider themselves to be the Master Race who have the right to
lie and cheat and extort to get whatever they want, because they have
such total contempt for the West. The statement that NK issued
Saturday may have been encouraged by the Chinese, because of their
fury over the tariffs.
I also pointed out that there's an analogy with the sanctions imposed
on Japan on July 24, 1941, which infuriated the Japanese and motivated
the Pearl Harbor attack on December 7. I can't prove this, of course,
but with nationalism and xenophobia at their historic peaks, I have
the feeling that a similar dynamic is going on with China and North
Korea towards America and the West.
What choices are now available to the Trump administration? Here
are some possibilities:
- Trump could order a resumption of the canceled
joint military drills with South Korea, assuming that the South
Koreans agree.
- Trump could offer some major new concession to the North,
such as removing 5% of the American troops in South Korea.
- Trump could replace Pompeo with someone else as North
Korean negotiator. This might buy a few days of time, kicking
the can down the road.
Any of these choices have unpredictable results, because
the North Koreans have absolutely no intention of agreeing
to denuclearization, and that will have to become clear
at some point. Furthermore, with xenophobia and nationalism
at historic highs in both China and North Korea, any action
might produce a hostile reaction.
It's well to remember that we've only had these negotiations because
of a remarkable coincidence: Just as things were heating up to a boil
in January, it was time for, of all things, the Olympics games in
Seoul. This permitted the North to continue nuclear and ballistic
missile development, while putting on a charm offensive that lasted
several months. The charm offensive is now completely derailed.
For those who would like a thin reed of hope to grasp onto, let me
offer one. In my article "12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?"
, I speculated that
Kim Jong-un's sister, Kim Yo-jong, might have been so overtaken with
the vibrancy and high standard of living of South Korean society,
compared to the deadliness and near starvation as a constant in the
North, she might have taken it upon herself to convince her brother to
give up his nuclear program, for the good of the North Korean people.
In that article, I described how Soviet leader Boris Yeltsin had
decided to give up Communism after visiting the United States in
September, 1989.
I wrote that article in February, and since that time dozens
of top North Korean leaders have visited the South, and have
seen for themselves how the NK people have suffered enormously
under Communism. Trump himself has frequently pointed out
to the North Koreans that they could have a great future if
they give up their nuclear program.
So the thin reed of hope that I'm offering is that Kim Jong-un and his
generals take the same lesson that Yeltsin took, and decide that, for
the good of the North Korean people, it would be best to give up not
only the nuclear program, but Communism. Something like that would be
truly historic, but don't hold your breath waiting for it. Reuters and The Hill and Fox News
Related Articles:
- Sec of State Pompeo visits North Korea amid reports that sanctions will be softened (06-Jul-2018)
- After the Kim-Trump summit, US and N. Korea plan denuclearization details (14-Jun-2018)
- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit (25-May-2018)
- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap (27-Apr-2018)
- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Mike Pompeo,
Punggye-ri nuclear test site, Mount Mantap,
China, Xi Jinping, Japan, Pearl Harbor,
Kim Yo-jong, Russia, Boris Yeltsin
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
